Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Perth-Wellington


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:30:04
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Desjardins, Chris

DeVries, Irma

Papenburg, Ellen

Pettapiece, Randy

Smink, Robby

Wilkinson, John

Incumbent:
Hon John Wilkinson

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JOHN WILKINSON
    18,09646.65%
    JOHN RUTHERFORD
    12,33831.81%
    DONNA HANSEN
    3,91210.09%
    ANITA PAYNE
    3,0517.87%
    PAT BANNON
    7762.00%
    ROBBY SMINK
    3991.03%
    KEVIN ALLMAN
    2170.56%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1481140.69%
    1551242.61%
    364110.00%


  •  


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    11 10 02 The Jackal
    74.12.40.110
    This will depend largely on John Wilkinson'spersonal popularity more than the Lpo's platform.It will likely seesaw on election night between the Grits and Tories but Wilkinson will win by 500-1000 votes.
    11 10 02 winds of change
    173.34.250.10
    Although I truly believe that the NDP should and could win this riding with a much stronger candidate, the liberals will hold this riding. The conservatives are a joke here, well at least in my part of the riding. I have been travelling through the riding alot recently and have noticed in the sign war that it isn't the traditional blue and red, now its blue, red and orange with nearly equal amounts. Speaking with a group of people from the Stratford area there is alot of people from all political colours that are just parking their votes with Wilkinson as they feel none of the other candidates are worth lending their votes. So honestly it's not Wilkinson that is winning this riding because of his work or integrity, its because there is no one running against him putting forward a clear alternative.
    11 09 27 forestman
    68.69.131.24
    The great Toronto Star poll is hardly reliable as an indicator of every single constituency with the wide variation in the number of voters surveyed in each riding. P-W is a large riding with a federal Conservative MP who won handily in the last federal election. Could Schellenberger's victory be calling some of the PC's who voted against John Tory last time to keep us safe from religious schools, to come home to save us from Eco-fees, time of day electricity billing and HST on essentials? The only poll that really matters is on October 6.
    11 09 26 GR
    24.231.74.107
    Polls published in the Sunday Star show this riding with a huge lead for John Wilkinson, which is unlike any of the neighbouring ridings. I think one is going to stay Liberal
    11 09 25 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Forestman: if by ?north end of the riding? you mean Wellington County--that was heavily Tory Blue in '07, too, in part through being inherited from previous Tory constituencies. Indeed, Perth-Wellington was the very definition of geo-electoral polarization: Perth was solidly Liberal, Wellington solidly Tory, and it just happens that there's more of Perth than there is of Wellington, and the Liberal incumbent's from Perth, etc etc. And with Wilkinson a heavy-duty McGuinty brown-noser, you can imagine a lot of backup from party central--it was certainly there in '07, considering how his sweeping *rural* Perth as well as the more predictable Stratford worked against a certain farm-country electoral nature. But because it's all ?against nature? (and because of a stronger NDP candidate), Wilkinson looks to be well above average among vulnerable-to-PC Liberal incumbents--or if he wins again, you can be sure the Tories will be bellowing like Lear...
    11 09 25 James
    184.175.15.84
    The Wellington part of the county does have a lot more PC signs, but this is not where the riding will be won. The Perth side has many more votes, especially Stratford. Seeing as John is a Stratford man, he will pick up a lot of this city. With regards to the rest of Perth, you would be surprised how popular he is. Also, in the case of the Wellington part, Clifford and Harriston, given their proximity to Huron (Huron rural voters vote Liberal) would be able to pick up enough support to win the riding. He doesnt need to have clear victories in these small towns, he just needs a vote increase or to stay steady.
    Given his history and the fact that people love him, it is a clear Liberal hold.
    11 09 23 AD
    24.246.31.39
    It seems much of the Southwest is heading blue these days. With a Liberal incumbant this one is tough but the Liberals just aren't where they were in 2007 in terms of popularity and I see this one going PC.
    11 09 20 forestman
    68.69.141.198
    At this point in time, the north end of the riding looks pretty Tory Blue. Most of the signs on lawns are PC for Pettapiece with a few Liberal and NDP signs. There doesn't seem to be visible public support for Wilkinson in this area.
    11 09 10 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Is a tough call its a mostly rural riding that has actually voted for all 3 parties at one time or another. federally its a very safe conservative seat but it was also liberal before it went conservative. i wouldn't say its a lock for either party yet in the end it may come down to incumbentcy vs desire for change at Queens park. John Wilkinson holds the incumbent advantage however after 8 years of Mcguinty many voters are ready for change at Queens Park which helps out Randy Pettapiece . the liberals must also deal with ndp who have managed to get former federal candidate Ellen Papenburg to run for them and she got 20% in recent federal vote and may prove to be more of a challenge for the liberals than they realise. i don't know still too close to call for time being.
    11 08 23 RobertVote
    24.138.184.113
    I find John in a race against Tim Hudak and the PC Party platform in Perth Wellington. It's interesting to note that John's campaign is focused on his own accomplishments, while his opponent, who nobody on this site has mentioned by name, has a campaign focused on Tim Hudak.
    John has built strong relationships with municipal leaders, business leaders, and most importantly, the people who live in the riding. He has represented them very effectively, professionally and successfully. He's accepted two of the toughest jobs Dalton McGuinty could give him and handled them better than could be expected.
    There will always be a certain amount of Party support for any candidate and thus, the PC's will be in there for the fight, but when the voters are given the choice of someone they don't know, destined to be a back bencher if elected, or someone very powerful in the party, likeley to be a party leader and possibly a Premier someday, the choice is clear...
    I'm predicting Perth-Wellington, John Wilkinson, Liberal, Re-Elected.
    11 07 15 James
    68.69.133.59
    The PCs have little to no presence in this riding. John is a smart man and has talked to the constituents from day one. He has built up his support in all of the riding through actually visiting and listening to the people. HST is a non issue now since all parties will keep it. The bus lines also are a non issue, it NEVER appears and also it is easily explainable (bus companies were waaay off in price and refused to even lower it). The wind issue is hardly an issue, except for small pockets of very vocal people who really think there is a health problem.
    Overall, there are two well known people in this riding. John and Gary. The former has the name that carries all the way, and he actually visits all communities and listens to people. Thats how we got the RMP and SMP.
    11 07 08 forestman
    68.69.141.196
    This riding is ripe for the PCs to pick up, if they actually get their candidate out to meet the people and organize a good ground campaign. Parties here have traditionally relied on mail drops of leaflets and the candidates tend to visit the ‘big wigs’ in the local community or stage events. Little in the way of pressing the flesh and visiting the locals. There is no love lost for the Liberals after the HST, rise in electricity prices, controversy over wind power and local planning changes. Wilkinson has doled out the cash for schools and hospitals, but failed to represent the rural folks except until he is confronted with a problem. Witness the School Bus Tendering fiasco that resulted in the loss of many school bus routes by local family based businesses in 2010. A smart PC campaign will tie Wilkinson to the HST as he was Revenue Minister and then ECO Fees as he is Environment Minister.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    69.165.140.179
    Wilkinson is safe regardless of the overall election outcome. The wind issue isn't a big in this part of the province, and the risk management promise in the budget will solidify his farmers. Wilkinson is the consummate politician who is strategic enough to master both the short and long games of politics. He took his first term to solidify his constituency base (in the face of a redistributed riding where more voted Conservative), and after securing that he's effectively balanced constituency-level politics with being a Cabinet member, all the while building his career. As long as there is no provincial NDP surge (which is unlikely), he'll be safe by a surprising margin. Wilkinson is a mover and a shaker and if the Liberals end up in opposition, he could be their next leader.
    11 03 14 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Liberal hold. John Wilkinson is way too popular. Even if the Liberals get decimated anywhere else, they'll keep this one for sure.
    11 03 10 Art
    174.95.66.11
    Close call here for a well-liked rep based in vote rich Stratford, but the rural areas have been very hard hit with entire towns crushed in the recession and little tangible relief. The Liberal energy gyrations will be a very big negative for the Liberal candidate. Close but back to PC land for this riding.



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