Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Pickering-Scarborough East


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cariño, Nerissa

Gaudet, Kevin

MacCharles, Tracy

Smith, Kevin

Thomas, Heath

Incumbent:
Wayne Arthurs

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * WAYNE ARTHURS
    19,76248.63%
    DIANA HALL
    12,88431.70%
    ANDREA MOFFAT
    4,56311.23%
    ANITA LALCHAN
    2,5726.33%
    JOSH INSANG
    3750.92%
    JOHN NEWELL
    2750.68%
    MITCHELL ANDREW PERSAUD
    2100.52%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1999949.30%
    1567938.65%
    348908.60%


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    11 09 24 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Likely to be one of the closest ridings in Durham region , was mentioned in new forum poll as being one of the ridings that was within margin of error between liberals and pc's. Kevin Gaudet is by far the most well known of the main candidates , liberals may be wondering why they didn't run former mp Dan Mcteague here instead as he wanted to run and is better known . its one of a number of GTA ridings that could swing to Hudak and might end up being one of the few seats within Toronto to go pc this year depending on what happens in final weeks . anyways it somehow wouldn't make sense if someone as high profile as Mark Hollands would lose in this area but an unknown like Tracy MacCharles could win so you gotta think this one is leaning pc as long as the polls stay close which it looks like they will.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    The loss of an incumbent makes this an open seat. Regardless, I am not convinced the Liberals are in such dire straights, particularly based on the latest polls, to lose a 17-point margin. Yes, it is very possible it could go PC particularly if there is a growth in NDP support but at this time I am going to predict a Liberal hold.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Once case where the Tory candidate quick-fix might actually have worked--and keep in mind that the recent-time picture of Liberal strength hereabouts may have been skewed by former MP Dan McTeague's personal appeal. Even as an ex-Pickering mayor in provincial parliament, Wayne Arthurs was no Dan McTeague...and now he's no more. But as an open seat, it remains a puzzle, puzzled-together btw/two municipalities as it is. It'd be exceptionally odd if this becomes the only elected Tory turf within the 416...
    11 09 13 Panther
    99.242.253.82
    If he keeps up the pace he's going, Kevin Gaudet will win in a landslide. The Liberal candidate is no where to be found. Gaudet has signs all over the riding, he's in the media, knocking on doors, at the GO Station. People like him and he'll win.
    11 07 12 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    The ontario pc's have a new candidate here, Kevin Gaudet who was once spokesmen for taxpayers federation. i'd say he's a reasonably high profile candidate for the party and much better than first one who was dropped. the riding itself is tough to get a feel for , not as conservative a riding as other durham region seats. but there is also no liberal incumbent so it could come into play if Hudak's numbers stay good.
    11 04 06 eb
    99.239.108.229
    Wayne Arthurs, because he is not running again, will fall to the PCs in a PC sweep of 2011, as it is looking like it will happen federally as well
    11 04 01 George
    184.144.83.208
    With popular MPP Wayne Arthurs retiring, this looked like it might be an uphill battle for the Liberals...until the Conservatives' star candidate, Sal Farooq, was arrested on fraud charges. The PCs don't exactly have a deep bench in Pickering or in Scarborough - whatever sacrificial lamb they run here is going to find it very difficult to overcome the recent media blitz surrounding Mr. Farooq's troubles. Easy Liberal hold.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    This riding straddles the border of Toronto and Pickering having voters in both.



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