Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Prince Edward-Hastings


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dombrowsky, Leona

Ford, Neal

Hayes, Sherry

Hull, Treat

Skinner, Andrew

Smith, Todd

Tuck, Trueman

Incumbent:
Hon Leona Dombrowsky

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * LEONA DOMBROWSKY
    20,96346.36%
    ERIC DENOUDEN
    14,84032.82%
    JODIE JENKINS
    6,28713.90%
    JIM ARKILANDER
    2,6635.89%
    VITO LUCENO
    2970.66%
    TRUEMAN TUCK
    1660.37%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    2444755.16%
    1375031.02%
    458810.35%


  •  


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    11 10 05 ML
    99.231.84.170
    People still don't like how the local Tory candidate was selected by downtown Toronto. Eric Denouden was shut out of the nomination after expecting to be the Conservative standardbearer again this time. My money is on Leona because I think a lot of local Tories will stay home.
    11 09 29 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    The most interesting footnote of '07 was how well NDPer Jodie Jenkins did in his Belleville home turf, even winning a couple of polls--the kind of spirited campaign that anticipated what Laytonmania wrought--but that was a sidebar to a typical '07 pattern: Liberal cabmin vanquishing an underwhelming Tory standard-bearer in a seat that'd otherwise be very Tory-compatible. Well, as Randy Hillier reminded us long ago, ‘Dead Deer’ Dombrowsky's still Tory-vulnerable to the point of caricature--such caricature, it may save her in spite of herself...
    11 09 29 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    Leona Dombrowsky only managed to hold this rural riding in 2007 because the Tory vote stayed home in protest to John Tory and the private school issue. This time the Tory vote is very motivated to take out Leona and make Todd Smith the MPP for Prince Edward Hastings. There may be one or two rural Liberals left after this election but Leona won't be one of them. Smith wins this riding for the Tories.
    11 09 28 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This is for sure a Tory pick up. Tories are doing very well in Eastern Ontario. Rural ridings like this one are just about fed up with McGuinty and though Leona is likeable enough, it won't prevent the Tories to pick up this seat. I'd say PC 39% Lib 31%, the rest don't count.
    11 09 02 J.G.
    199.246.2.11
    The Tories appointed their candidate and ran rough shod over the locals, including the former candidate who had sold hundreds of memberships. While the county has lots of new people, most of the riding is very traditional. These voters don't like backroom appointments...even though the Tory candidate is in the media, everyone knows he's not a local person. He may be a nice guy, but he has his work cut out for him. Dombrowsky spent a year selling memberships to get her first nomination and has produced for the riding. She will be tough to beat.
    11 06 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I disagree that this be another easy liberal win , its not really clear who Ontario pc candidate be at this time but whoever wins the nomination has a credible shot at winning the riding. outside of Belleville its mostly small towns and rural areas. liberal support in such areas has dropped significantly according to the most recent ipsos poll. just 17 % of rural voters said they'd vote liberal compared to 45 % Ontario pc . of course those numbers aren't specific to this riding but indicate liberals have a hard time keeping ridings with large rural portions this election. and mpp's like Leona Dombrowsky need to hold urban polls like Belleville with massive margins if there to have any chance at holding seats. so it remains too close to call for time being until election starts to take shape.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Unlike the federal riding, this riding does have a history of voting Liberal. Unless the PC Party is posing for a strong majority, this riding will likely return another Liberal.
    11 03 20 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    TCTC right now. A serious Tory target. Whoever wins the election will likely win PEH.



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