Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dougherty, Brian A

Jones, Kyle

O'Leary, John

Reid, Murray

Yakabuski, John

Incumbent:
John Yakabuski

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JOHN YAKABUSKI
    24,97562.34%
    SEAN KELLY
    9,90524.72%
    FELICITE STAIRS
    3,0387.58%
    MARK MACKENZIE
    1,7774.44%
    BRUCE DEAN
    2920.73%
    TILTON BEAUMONT
    760.19%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1569842.00%
    1638643.84%
    451212.07%


  •  


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    11 10 03 Pure Whig
    199.243.125.2
    Ok obviously a Conservative hold. Probably an increased majority which given the last blow out will be even more impressive.
    How about predicting second place?
    I say NDP. The fact the Liberal’s couldn’t even find anyone interested in carrying their banner, and so had to drop in someone whose only connection with the riding is 150 years in the past only underscores the collapse of their organization here.
    Dougherty is well spoken and intelligent. He is politically aware, a decent speaker, hard campaigner and a real ‘lunch box socialist’.
    I think his message will resonate with those of a more left wing bent of mind, and combined with Liberal apathy will result in a second place finish.
    In both Arnprior and Renfrew I have noticed Liberal households with orange signs in the yard.
    Any other thoughts?
    11 09 13 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Yeah, Yak went from only-pickup in 2003 to best-Tory-result-of-all in 2007. And any Randy Hillier-ness on his part is more out of geographic etc common cause; in fact, his advantage is in being *less* controversial than either Hillier or MP Cheryl Gallant. Given that last result, it's folly to picture Yak yucked, even in the event that Hec Cloutier went provincial...
    11 03 28 Pure Whig
    199.243.125.2
    I don't beleive this riding was ever safe for the Liberals. Sure Sean Conway owned it, but it was as a personal feifdom.
    The old Renfrew North riding trended Conservative for most of its history except in times of strong Liberal surges such as the election that brought Conway to office in 1975. Credit must be given to Conway for keeping a strong rein on it until his retirment.
    Provincially Renfrew South was Tory Blue from for all but two years from 1943-1999 (the two years being Quilty's byelection win before being toppled by Yak senior in the 60's).
    Federally, Renfrew South was Conservative from 1957-68, and again from 1972-1993.
    11 03 04 MF
    70.48.64.195
    It's amazing that just over a decade ago this was a ‘safe Liberal riding’, perhaps somewhat akin to West Virginia going for Dukakis in 1988, but rejecting Gore in 2000. This was of course one of 2 Alliance seats in the 2000 federal election, and I believe Yakabuski had the distinction of being the only Conservative pickup in 2003. And Yakabuski saw a big increase in his vote in 2007, and that was certainly in spite of Tory the Red Tory's leadership. And with the Conservatives on the upswing under the leadership of the more populist Hudak, who knows who much higher they can go?
    11 02 12 Craig
    76.67.31.214
    Simply put, this is Tea Party country. No way anything centre or left on the spectrum gets elected here these days. If any challenge does emerge, it would likely be on the right, but Yakabuski is probably conservative enough to prevent such, being on the Randy Hillier wing of the party. Should be one of the first races called on election night, with 70% or more possible.



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