Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:37:37
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Donnelly, Darcy Neal

MacDonald, Elaine

MacDonald, Mark A

McDonell, Jim

Reist, Justin

Incumbent:
Jim Brownell

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * JIM BROWNELL
    18,66048.86%
    CHRIS SAVARD
    14,79438.73%
    LORI TAYLOR
    2,8137.37%
    ELAINE KENNEDY
    1,6804.40%
    LUKAS BEBJAK
    2470.65%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1857450.94%
    1302335.71%
    160204.39%


  •  


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    11 09 29 Joe
    184.151.127.223
    The election is now 7 days away and the winner for SD&SG is very clear. I have been observing the actions of the all of the candidates throughout the campaign. I have to say that I have been very disappointed in Mark MacDonald. He has been agressive, defensive, dishonest and vague with his objectives. He has been very critical of McDonell and has consistently stated that he reads from his notes, I have been at several events and watched debates and interviews on the web and didnt see any notes, in fact McDonell has done a great job and exudes honesty and leadership. Our next MPP in SD&SG will be McDonell.
    11 09 28 PJohnson
    192.197.82.203
    I call this one for the PCs. Liberal candidate somewhat liked in Cornwall, but for the amount of people that would swear by him, there are probably at least two others that would say he's incompetent and have had a bad experience dealing with him in the past. SG Mayor Jim McDonnell has shown to be a competent manager during his time in municipal politics. Mark MacDonald was bearly re-elected to Cornwall City Council in the 2006 municipal election. His relatively strong second place run for Mayor was mostly due to the fact that Bob Kilger is getting stale (IMHO he has been for a long time now). I think had there been more inspiring choices in that election MacDonald would not have gotten over 5000 votes to Kilger's nearly 7500. But, the fact that McDonell will clean house in the rural areas where's he's most well-known as well as a very strong campaign in Cornwall which would seem to have him winning the sign war, McDonell should be able to finally deliver this riding to the PCs.
    11 09 26 JR
    134.117.138.73
    I think the reason this riding has not been called for the PCs yet is because this site is excersing caution. I have previously posted before the election was called that it was too early to claim a PC victory. With a week and a half to go, I would now say this is leaning Conservative. Factors that have led me to swing my prediction:
    #1-The Provincial Wide Campagin has not been as strong.
    #2-While Hudak has made some missteps that may cost him in the GTA and thus the election, they have not been complete meltdowns. Thus, in more Conservative ridings he's still OK.
    #3-In this riding the NDP is running a stronger candidate than last time. Also, her base is in Cornwall, which will hurt the Liberal more than the PC. The lack of meltdown of the NDP province wide campaign also helps E.MacDonald.
    That said, the leader's debate could still have an impact. It would be prudant to wait until after this debate, in the event there is the ‘knockout’ punch by one of the leaders.
    11 09 25 Edwin
    216.48.163.253
    How is this not called for the PCs yet? Jim McDonell is going to win here decisively. The local polling shows him with a big lead, and the lawn sign war in the entire riding (including the city) is being absolutely dominated by the Tories.
    The Liberal candidate doesn't even have a base of support in his home turf of Cornwall, and a lot of residents in the city do not care for him in the first place. I predict that the NDP comes in 2nd in the riding actually!
    11 09 20 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Bizarrely, a triple Mickey D race (w/variant PC spelling). As a Liberal open seat that's been federally trending uber-Tory to the point where even Cornwall's blue-collar and Franco-Ontarian strongholds are falling into lockstep, the end result seems foregone-conclusionish--all the more so if the proximity of orange-wave Quebec plus the general nature of Cornwall leads a lot of those past Grit votes to head NDP instead. (It's worth noting that Cornwall was a provincial NDP seat going into the early 80s.)
    11 09 06 Joe
    184.151.127.219
    Well, now that the Liberals platform has been released it is more clear to me that the PC's will lead in rural Ontario. The S,D, SG riding will certianly be a riding to watch. There are strong candidates running but Jim McDonell is still the name that I hear the most in the rural area. I think that MacDonald and MacDonald will be given a run for their money and the riding will be blue come October 7, 2011.
    11 09 06 SouthpawPundit
    69.156.90.5
    I hate to call this one for the Tories given as how the Liberal and NDP candidate are both individuals that I know personally and hold in high esteem, but fact is, the seat is open and the political calculus is far worse for the Liberals in 2007 than it was in 2003. Electorally speaking, the NDP is not a factor in this riding, sadly.
    Both Elaine MacDonald (a past NDP candidate at the federal level who has since become a city councilor) and Mark MacDonald (a popular former city councilor who failed to unseat Bob Kilger in the mayor race) have high profiles in Cornwall, a situation which could result in a Tory plurality in my hometown, God forbid. Moreover, the rural Anglophone vote is reliably Tory, and the rural Francophone vote has been moving away from the Liberals in recent elections. A Tory victory here is almost a given, lamentably, barring a dramatic reversal in regional and provincial political trends.
    11 08 31 Joe
    184.151.127.158
    This will be a very interesting riding to watch however, I still think the PC 's have a chance. Jim McDonell does carry name recognition throughout the Counties and is campaigning hard in Cornwall.
    11 08 22 JR
    134.117.138.73
    Way too early to call this a PC victory. It could happen, but it would take a heck of a fight.
    #1-Liberals are closing the gap provincially in the polling. Even with the Tories in the lead, the Liberals were still leading in Eastern Ontario.
    #2-The Liberal candidate is everywhere in the riding. Although not an incumbent, he has the full backing of the incumbent who is working to help get Mark MacDonald elected.
    #3-Although PC strength is greater in the counties, the Liberals are making some inroads and the PCs would need a breakthrough in Cornwall to turn the tide. Mark MacDonald has the name recognition in the city, Jim McDonnell doesn't.
    #4-A lot will ride on the debates and actual campaign. The first debate I witnessed McDonnell peformed very poorly. Find it on youtube. He was totally reliant on his notes and had no energy/spark.
    #5-I never go by proximity to other ridings. Each riding has its own dynamics.
    #6-This site predicted Jim Brownell's defeat in 2007. Didn't happen.
    Like them or not, the Ontario Liberal Party, unlike the federal cousins, are a well oiled machine. A PC victory in SDSG could still happen, but it won't be a slam dunk by any means. I would put this one in the ‘leaning Liberal’ category for now, but a lot can happen with over a month to go.
    11 08 15 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Another one of the vacant ridings the liberals are trying to hold onto , without Jim Brownell it will be a difficult task as outside of Cornwall its hard to see there being alot of liberals in this riding. its a riding the pc's should be able to pick up especially as they seem to have a good candidate in Jim Mcdonnell . it also borders Leeds Grenville a riding the pc's won massively in a by-election last year so if they could win there , they should be able to make some progress next door.
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    It's amusing that this seat has not been called for the PCs already, despite premature decisions in other ridings that have Liberal incumbents. The Liberal MPP here is retiring, and it's a fairly conservative riding, so it's obvious to me that the PCs will win this.
    11 02 23 GV
    69.196.167.73
    In fact, the PCs won this riding in 1995 (the former riding of ?S-D-G & East Grenville?). It's the former Cornwall riding that the Harris Tories didn't win (John Cleary won, and then held SDSG for the Grits in '99). I can only say that, if the Liberal candidate wins, it won't be by much.
    11 02 19 JR
    74.14.39.146
    It's way too early to say that this is an easy PC pick up. However, it's also too early to determine if it's a Liberal hold. This riding has never been big on what is going on in Toronto. SDSG is very locally focussed with candidate personalities being the big factor. With no major candidates nominated, it's hard to make an accurate prediction as of yet. Secondly, it's naive to say that a strong showing by the federal conservatives will impact the provincial vote. Different issues, different personalities and different organizations running the campaigns. I believer the last time the PCs won the riding was 1985. In 1999, with a still popular Mike Harris and a cabinet minister with two portfolios running, the Liberals still squeaked out a victory. So it will be no cake walk for the PCs. I'm not claiming a Liberal victory, but think this is definitely a toss up until closer to election day.
    11 02 15 Craig
    76.67.31.214
    The Liberals will be lucky to hang on to more than 2 or 3 seats in eastern Ontario now. With Jim Brownell stepping aside and opening the seat (his last two wins were helped by weak leaders), this won't be one of them, especially considering how many votes the federal Conservatives routinely get here (around 55% is the norm). I expect an easy PC victory as such translates into provincial politics as well.



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