Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Thornhill


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:47
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Balfour, Gene

Duncan, Stephanie

Farber, Bernie

Gorman, Erin Ashley

Hackelberg, Cindy

Shurman, Peter

Incumbent:
Peter Shurman

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    PETER SHURMAN
    22,24445.92%
    * MARIO RACCO
    20,51942.36%
    SANDRA PARROTT
    2,6575.49%
    LLOYD HELFERTY
    2,5075.18%
    NATHAN KIDD
    2140.44%
    MALCOLM KOJOKARO
    1580.33%
    LINDSAY KING
    1420.29%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1880146.32%
    1827745.03%
    234805.78%


  •  


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    11 10 01 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    There are several reasons why I think the Liberals take back Thornhill. First of all it was all Peter Sherman could do to defeat the awful Mario Racco in 2007. Bernie Farber is by far a much stronger candidate for the Liberals in this riding. Secondly, the NDP are a fringe party in Thornhill and won't take enough votes away from Farber to cost him the riding. This may be the only seat the Tories hold that they will lose this time.
    11 09 30 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.193.217
    Question for thought/discussion rather than a prediction; there's been many comments regarding Jewish vote allegedly moving to the right. But is this really so or might it be the Jewish vote has shifted to the CPC (federally) because of Harper's Israel love-in? If it's the former, then in the Ontario election we should see a large shift to the right in this (and other) ridings. If it's the latter, then PC vote will stay more or less the in-line with provincial (or GTA) norms.
    11 09 27 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Thanks to the niceties of Jewish politics, Thornhill's become the contrarian Sault Ste Marie of the 905--going from being 1999's nearest Liberal gain in the 905, to 2003's nearest Tory hold and then 2007's only Tory gain in the inner 905 belt...and for all we know now, Bernie Farber could make it (and on the same ‘community leader’ grounds as in 1999) the only Liberal gain from the Tories in all of Ontario in 2011. Then again, Bernie might be stunting--but hey, how else would Liberals have a chance here, given present circumstances?
    11 09 24 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    I simply don't see any change taking place here Peter Shurman is a pretty good mpp and the jewish vote has moved increasingly right of centre . there was recently a by-election called special election in the US in New York city in a heavily jewish area that had been democratic since 1920 and shockingly went republican. there is simply little realistic chance of the riding going back to the liberals this year even if the pc's don't make significant gains in Toronto this is a riding that went conservative in 07 and 08 both elections when no tory candidates won provincially or federally in Toronto. Bernie Farber could of won the riding 10 years ago as a liberal but in the present political climate it be shocking for the riding to not re-elect Peter Shurman
    11 09 14 MF
    74.15.65.107
    I think it's increasingly likely that Shurman will lose. First of all, the Hudak campaign is losing ground in the GTA. Furthermore, this was one of a few ridings where John Tory's school funding plank gained more votes than it lost, but even with that issue the Conservatives only won Thornhill by a narrow margin. It is not a ballot issue this time. And yes, Peter Kent crushed Karen Mock in the May federal election, but while Mock was actually a pretty credible candidate, she couldn't withstand the destruction of the LPC. McGuinty is not Ignatieff and Bernie Farber is not Mario Racco). Farber is a top-notch candidate and far more well known to the general public than any other Jewish community leader who has run in Thornhill.
    11 08 30 AD
    99.236.96.112
    I am not a conservative, but I vote a win for the PCs in this riding for sure. With the conservatives up in the polls from the last election, I don't see much of a contest from the Liberals much less any of the other parties. Unless there is a dramatic shift in voting, this is an easy PC hold.
    11 08 21
    76.68.129.154
    The Jewish vote federally is only because Harper has nice words for Israel (no money or guns, but it sounds nice). Provincial is another kettle of fish as the international card can't be played. Will be interesting to see the results.
    11 08 20 zz
    76.67.102.195
    this will be a PC-hold. While farber has name recognition with the jews (i am one), shurman will pull through. karen mock was like farber and she tanked in the federal election just this past may.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    173.35.102.114
    Saying Thornhill is too close to call puzzles me. I suppose the thought process here is the Jewish vote went Tory last time because of the religious schools question. One of the few seats that that actually helped them, considering Thornhill has the highest Jewish population in the country. However, as we've seen from the federal election, the Jews here have gone Conservative, and unless we see any reason for them to switch boats, this seat is going PC again.
    11 08 08 JD
    174.112.116.240
    The race is tightening up, and in a riding with a Jewish plurality, the OLP has a strong candidate to match Shurman. We'll see how it goes in October, but I'll call a Liberal win.
    Date 11 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    I think at this point the Liberals could run Moses here and still lose. Don't forget that they already tried the Jewish-community-leader angle in 1999 with Moshe Ronen, and lost (albeit narrowly) to a non-Jewish Conservative. And that was an election in which the Liberals achieved nearly 40% of the popular vote province-wide. In this election they may not crack 30%.
    11 06 29 Ted J
    132.156.14.143
    In an alternate universe, i'd say that Bernie Farber was a strong candidate.
    But Karen Mock also had supposed ties to the Jewish Community, and the Liberal vote tanked during the Federal Election. The Liberal base is all but dead in this riding.
    Dalton McGuinty is about as popular as dirt now. This riding has been Conservative provincially since it's creation with the exception of 2003, but it would take a miracle for the Liberals to win this one back. It'll be closer than the Federal Election - it always is in this riding - but Shurman holds it and keeps a similar margin over the Liberals, if not a better one.
    11 05 26 OgtheDim
    173.206.209.17
    As the Tories are not supporting expanded separate schools this time around, that won't be an issue.
    Bernie Farber is a very different kettle of fish for Shulman to deal with - articulate and nobody will accused him of not supporting the Jewish community. Although this riding has become somewhat conservative federally, its not yet a conservative riding provincially.
    11 05 17 Stevo
    99.232.142.184
    Thornhill is definitely NOT too close to call! Dalton McGuinty burned his bridges with the Jewish community in the last election the way he demonized John Tory's plan to equalize funding of religious schools on par with what Catholic schools receive. It's not that Jews all supported Tory's proposed policy (indeed, the community was split), but McGuinty's vitriolic tone and hypocrisy vis-a-vis Catholic school funding ensured that his party won't be getting many votes from the Jewish community as long as he is leader.
    Peter Shurman will win in a landslide, possibly doubling his Liberal challenger.
    Note that Peter Kent was just re-elected federally with a massive 61% of the popular vote, making Thornhill one of the federal Tories' biggest Ontario wins.
    11 05 08 SB
    76.66.46.100
    Thornhill has become the safest Tory riding bordering Toronto. In the recent federal election, the Tories won this riding 61% to 23%. Provincially, the Tories picked up this seat in 2007, despite a McGuinty landslide. Unless Tim Hudak somehow implodes, this is a safe Tory seat.
    11 05 08 MF
    70.52.181.204
    McGuinty is set to name Canadian Jewish Congress CEO Bernie Farber as the Liberal candidate in Thornhill. In 2007, Peter Shurman had to face Mario Racco, probably the most lacklustre MPP at Queen's Park. Unless the provincial Liberals are headed the way of their federal cousins, I think Shurman will be facing a serious battle here.
    11 05 07 MF
    70.52.181.204
    In 2007, Peter Shurman defeated just about the most lacklustre member of the legislature...this time he has a far more formidable opponent, Canadian Jewish Congress CEO Bernie Farber. I would also argue that Shurman isn't as respected or high profile as his federal counterpart, Peter Kent.
    11 04 28 Ted J
    174.92.85.198
    This went Liberal during the McGuinty wave, largely due to his broken promises about getting tough on the operators of the 407, which goes right through this riding. Went Conservative again in 2007. This riding is now Conservative Federally.
    People in this riding really felt the pinch of McGuinity's new taxes. Solid, Safe, Conservative Seat in October 2011.
    11 04 25 will87
    70.31.15.57
    Shurman won this riding against the tide in 2007. He should hold it in 2011.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Being the incumbent can gain you as much as 14 points. I find it hard to believe that the PC Party will lose any ridings this election.
    11 02 25 Jeff Westlake
    24.235.153.34
    One of very few seats that the Tories gained in 2007, Shurman should hold the seat. It is also worth considering that there is now a Conservative representing the riding Federally (and a cabinet minister to boot), that wasn't there in 2007...



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