Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Toronto Centre


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Abbott, Anne K

Abell, Martin

Crowe, Cathy

Daye, Mark

Falardeau, Judi

Goodwin, Christopher Jason

Holliday, Cathy

Murray, Glen

Rotenberg, Harvey

Sarazen, Phil

Yazdanfar, Bahman

Incumbent:
Hon Glen R Murray

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * GEORGE SMITHERMAN
    21,52247.85%
    PAMELA TAYLOR
    9,08420.20%
    SANDRA GONZALEZ
    8,46418.82%
    MIKE MCLEAN
    4,4129.81%
    MICHAEL GREEN
    6861.53%
    DANISH AHMED
    2590.58%
    JOHAN BOYDEN
    1960.44%
    PHILIP FERNANDEZ
    1910.42%
    GARY LEROUX
    1670.37%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1487551.92%
    648522.63%
    551019.23%


  •  


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    11 09 29 MF
    70.52.182.205
    Cathy Crowe is no doubt an extraordinary person and a great candidate for the NDP - and as has been pointed out, her strong showing in the by-election occurred before the orange crush. And the NDP has definitely established itself as the ‘official opposition’ in TC. The problem for the NDP here though is that the Conservatives are now too weak here - they placed a distant third in the federal election, and TC was also Rob Ford's second worst riding (after Trinity-Spadina). A weakened Conservative base helps the Liberals, so I expect Glen Murray (who also has some ‘progressive’ cred as a former NDPer himself) to be elected.
    11 09 22 Marshall Howard Bader
    184.145.85.117
    Saw Cathy Crowe in action tonight at the 519 and she just can't cut the mustard. Glenn Murray out classed her and made her look like an amateur. Many folks who were undecided or leaning to Crowe went over to Murray by the end of the night. The NDP should have found a better candidate here.
    11 09 15 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Cathy Crowe's third-of-the-vote byelection result looked like a bittersweet plateau for the NDP in Toronto Centre...but that was all before Jack-mania. Still, I have a certain skepticism about her crossing that final hurdle, not least because of how Toronto Centre's become an epicentre (maybe increasingly token in Toronto; but, what the hey) for the unite-the-left-under-the-Liberals spirit, and in a not-uncharming ‘hey, why not keep up the tradition’. way. And Glen Murray's perfect for that. But I'll reserve judgment, if only because if provincial Grit and NDP numbers are converging within the 416, the Crowe-inflected TC is pretty aggressively within the crosshairs...
    11 09 13 RL
    99.232.114.39
    As much as I admire Cathy Crowe, there are a few reasons that I don't think she will win. 1) By-elections tend to have lower voter turnout than regular elections. Although she had an amazing turnout in the By-election, this may not be the case this time around. 2)Toronto Centre has been Liberal for too long and they have the money to take it. 3) Of all the ridings in Toronto that could go NDP, this one is more likely to have voters worried about Hudak taking over. Although I think both Glen Murray and Cathy Crowe are excellent candidates (Lucky Toronto-Centre!), I will give the edge to Glen Murray on this one!
    11 09 06 Love Game
    66.203.207.68
    Sorry, Marshall Howard Bader, but no one person has the ‘100% support of the LGBT community’. Other than that this still looks like a Liberal win.
    11 07 08 Marshall Howard Bader
    74.14.156.77
    Murray has a strong machine, 100% support from the LGBT community, Bob Rae's backing, corporate money, and a riding that is an NDP-Lib contest south of Bloor + Lib-PC fight north of Bloor. In addition Murray is a strong MPP. For the Grits this is as safe as it gets.
    11 06 23 bza
    206.130.174.61
    I would recommend to at least move this to 'too close to call' for now. Given that Cathy Crowe won 33% in the by-election and that Susan Wallace just won 30% in the federal election. These results show that NDP support has solidified to at least this level.
    With Cathy Crowe being the candidate again and with the recent results I expect that this campaign will get a lot more resources and volunteers then recent elections because people perceived this riding as being a write-off. Many people for example went to help out Jack Layton or Olivia Chow in the recent federal election because they thought the races would be close. With Rosario Marchese and Peter Tabins being solid incumbents, expect that this race instead will benefit from a lot of outside resources coming in.
    This race will be even closer then the federal election and the by-election and there is a good chance that Cathy Crowe will end up winning.
    11 06 09 SB
    70.26.164.103
    Interesting how both the MP and MPP in this riding are NDP turned Liberal politicians. Glenn Murray is a likable progressive and won't have too much trouble winning this back again, even in a potential NDP surge.
    11 05 11 MF
    70.52.181.204
    The NDP was able to pull a very respectable 30% of the vote in the last federal election with a pretty low-profile candidate. So while I would still give the edge to Glen Murray, an NDP victory with star candidate Cathy Crowe doesn't seem all that far-fetched if the NDP does especially well province-wide.
    11 03 20 WAC
    99.230.244.3
    There are a number of problems with Art's NDP prediction. First if we compare the raw numbers between the 2007 election and the 2010 byelection it demonstrates that a lot of Liberals and PC stayed home, and the NDP gained little in terms of raw vote.
    2007
    Lib - 21,585 (47.8%)
    PC - 9,225 (20.4%)
    NDP - 8,528 (18.9%)
    2010 - Byelection
    Lib - 12,289 (47.2%)
    NDP - 8,705 (33.4%)
    PC - 3,985 (15.3%)
    So while the NDP gain about 14.5% in terms of percentage, they gained little terms of raw vote. Most of that percentage gain is attributable to supporters of the other parties staying home. Especially in certain neighbourhoods in the north-end of the riding which are traditionally stronghold for the Liberals and PCs (e.g. Yorkville and Rosedale) had unusually low voter turnouts. Once these neighbourhoods return to their traditionally higher voter turn outs, you'll see much strong raw values for the PCs and Liberals.
    The NDP simply do not have the numbers in this riding to win. I expect the PCs and the NDP to eat in to a little bit of the Liberals support from 2007, but expect a 45-22-20 kind of result.
    11 03 12 Art
    174.91.79.69
    Toronto Centre
    With the by-election here now on the records, one should not just click Liberal Fortress here. The by-election results showed that an NDP street nurse (Cathy Crowe) working outside the orbit of the rich and powerful was the only candidate to gain ground, while the Liberal machine with all of its money, party staffers and Cabinet Ministers working overtime lost major ground in a David and Goliath warning salvo. The Ryerson Student vote battered by rapidly rising tuition rates may rabidly swing NDP as well. NDP pick up if Crowe runs again.
    11 02 24 Craig
    70.30.72.61
    The Liberal brand is as strong as ever here and Glen Murray is extremely popular here, while conservatism is as good as dead in downtown Toronto despite a PC history here. While the NDP are reasonably strong, the large high-income and business community usually sticks with the Liberals. The fact that Murray is openly gay is a huge advantage here as well given this riding has the largest gay community in Ontario and is probably the most socially progressive riding as well. All that combines for an easy Liberal hold.



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