Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 00:30:29

Constituency Profile


Lakes, Tish

McLoughlin, Mike

Thomson, Steve

Van Ryswyk, Dayleen

Steve Thomson


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Steve Thomson
    Tisha Kalmanovitch
    Mark Thompson
    Crystal Wariach
    Silverado Brooks Socrates
    Daniel Bonaventure Thorburn


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    13 04 18 Laurence Putnam
    This was likely headed for the Lib column anyway, but with van Ryswyk's surprise turn of events and subsequent independent candidacy, I tend to think the Liberals benefit all the more so.
    The new NDP candidate, whoever it is, will have 25+ days to build their name recognition from zero which is a problem. Bigger still is however much of the organization van Ryswyk can siphon off for her independent bid, which if it attracts even 5-10% of the vote will be fatal for the already longshot chance the NDP had here. Liberals' incumbency factor here becomes a huge advantage at this stage in the game.
    Of course there is a chance that as a populist independent, there will be those, particularly some voters who might be in agreement with the controversial remarks, who go with van Ryswyk whose votes would have come from all corners, so it may be difficult to estimate which of the other campaigns van Ryswyk's will hurt the most.
    Still, I think this is most logically regarded as being in the Liberal column.
    Tories could make a decent showing here too.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    These interior ridings will be much closer than usual due to the growth of the BC Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain over 20%, they could tip this seat to the NDP. Any higher and they might even take it themselves. A three way race could go to any of the parties, a two-way race is an NDP loss and a probable Liberal hold.

    Navigate to British Columbia 2013 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    British Columbia Provincial Election - 2013
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2013 - Email Webmaster