Fox-McGuire, Judy Ann
Hadland, Arthur Austin
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order
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| ||13 05 12
||Advance Voting Analyst|
|This may be the only riding in the whole of the north where constituents wake up to a new MLA on Wednesday morning, as the regional numbers are settling into a pattern not too far from where we were in 2009. Pat Pimm's poor term, the weakness of the NDP here, the appearance of a Conservative candidate but not a Green plus Arthur Hadland's apparent popularity should be enough to cumulatively chip away at the 12 points by which Pimm won last time. Expect a close race resulting in a Hadland victory.|
| ||13 05 10
|Arthur Hadland and Pat Pimm both have strong cores of support in this riding. Pimm and the Liberals have really lost their advantage in 2009 thanks to Pimm's own missteps and the HST debacle. Hadland remains the go-to candidate for the anti-Pimm/Liberal vote. Pimm still has very strong support in the business community and up in the Fort Nelson area.|
Two weeks ago, I would have had this riding lean toward Hadland. What has really hurt Hadland between then and now is the entrance of Wyeth Sigurdson, the BC Conservative candidate. It's only bled off about 5%-8% from Hadland, but that could be enough for Pimm to come up the middle and hold his seat.
| ||13 05 03
|Hadland, the Independent candidate, ran last time and managed 31% seemingly out of nowhere. A few things have happened since then.|
First. The BC Conservatives came on the scene and told BC Liberals who were unhappy with the BC Liberal party, they had another option.
Second, those disgruntled Liberals agreed with the Conservatives, there is another option.
Third, the BC Conservatives have made fools of themselves, dropping from 20% last summer to 10% now.
What's important is the second point is still valid. Right of centre voters may have lost faith in the BC Conservatives but that does not mean they've regained it with the Liberals. Despite a BC Conservative running here, the real benefactor of the BC Conservative campaign is Hadland.
Northerners will send their message by electing an Independent this election.
| ||13 05 03
|Tough riding to call! The liberals now appear to be polling ahead in the interior/north which will help them in this riding. However, a popular (if somewhat nutty) arthur hadland, endorsed by the greens, could still end up sitting next to vicki huntington as a second independent MLA in the legislature|
| ||13 04 27
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|The Liberals needed to hold thier base and that seems to be not happening. Hadland as the prime alternative is gaining from this and will win by about 10%.|
| ||13 04 25
|Well...go ahead and call me crazy - I'm predicting Independent Arthur Hadland. Gotta hand it to him - he's running a legit, populist, independent campaign.|
It's a perfect storm - the election is going against the incumbent from the governing party - and the incumbent has taken some bad press personally as well. Liberal base is not motivated. The Conservatives are running a candidate to siphon off Liberal votes. NDP will do better than last time but don't have a chance - haven't won here since 1945 as the CCF.
The Green Party is standing down and has endorsed Hadland - they got 10% of the vote here last time. Based on those results, if all those green votes really did go over to Hadland en masse (obviously absurd, but let's assume) - he actually would have won.
Recent local press covering an all candidates' meeting interestingly chose to run a photo of Hadland speaking to accompany the story - might mean nothing, or might be an interesting indicator of where the local press thinks the momentum is.
| ||13 03 08
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|If the riding joins the province in the desire for change, Hadland can win. It will depend on his ability to keep himself from being his own worst enemy. This is probably a Liberal hold but not a sure thing.|
| ||13 02 15
|No opinion yet - although safe to say the riding is unlikely to go to the NDP. It was one of 7 Social Credit survivors province-wide in 1991, and one of only two elected on the Reform BC ticket in 1996. Only reluctantly a BC Liberal riding since 2001, even in that election the moribund Socreds still polled 17% - their best result in any riding since 1994.|
Add to the backdrop that the incumbent Liberal MLA has some of his own problems of late.
With those sorts of credentials, this could be low hanging fruit for the BC Conservatives, although time will tell if their campaigns both locally and province-wide can ignite enough support here.
Another wildcard to throw in for consideration is Independent Arthur Hadland. Strong Liberal and Conservative showings, coupled with even marginal NDP and Green showings could make this riding winnable with 33%. That means Hadland is a factor too - I suspect he can win if he keeps his conspiracy theories, etc. to himself.
| ||13 02 10
|Arthur Hadland has a good chance to take this, Pat Pimm may have not been charged for the domestic dispute it's still something that will plague him in this campaign and with the Liberals low in the polls Hadland will win.|