Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Peace River South

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:38:09

Constituency Profile


Bernier, Mike

Peats, Kurt Zane

Pohl, Tyrel Andrew

Wren, Darwin

Blair Lekstrom


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Blair Morgan Lekstrom*
    Pat Shaw
    Grant Fraser
    Donna Young


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    13 05 07 onwitheshow
    The Conservative campaign for Mr. Peats fairly much has captured the farm vote-where the largest turnout actually occurs. The NDP candidate will get a greatly increased vote, general and everywhere. The Liberals will get those voters in Dawson Creek where the ?fear factor? of SHUT DOWN of the OIL PATCH message is all that they have been saying. The BBQ's held last saturaday, Berneirs Parking Lot was nearly empty except the band. The NDP's BBQ was crowded and kid fun with many young families mixing with the crowd & it was a crowd. A CBC 22 Minutes Celebrity also attended. THIS RIDING will be a split riding. With Former CON. MP DAY now throwing his support behind the LIberal this is a recognised factor. The race is close on the ground, very much like 1997. THE SPLIT, and teh win this time to the NDP.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    As I posted in a earlier submission, if this falls, there is not a safe Liberal seat in the province. still Nuff said.
    13 04 25 Laurence Putnam
    Despite the persuasive argument proffered by onwiththeshow, I can't imagine the NDP taking root here. As Mayor of Dawson Creek, Mike Bernier hails from a town four times the size of Tumbler Ridge, so no matter how popular the Mayor of Tumbler Ridge is, he's outgunned in that sense.
    Often is the example demonstrated of incredibly popular people running as *star* candidates only to be shown the door. To the best of my knowledge, this riding has in fact NEVER returned a New Democrat. Provincially OR federally, as far as I know.
    Lois Boone, well known to the area from her time in provincial politics (although not from this riding) ran in the larger federal riding in 2011 during the historic NDP surge and managed a whopping 25% of the vote. It's against the DNA of this Alberta-bordering region to vote for the NDP, and even if the Liberals take a 20% pounding from last time's results, they'd still have the 43% which will probably be enough to keep this.
    13 04 21 onwitheshow
    At play is the SPLIT VOTE--a conservative, an ex Mountie with religious right backing, never out in public before, tends to be controlling--not so factual at his facts. A boring BC Liberal who has no energy to run the town(mayor of Dawson Creek and was acclaimed--as everyone honestly thought someone would run against him), votes in favour of Toxic Waste Dumps in rural communities which he has alienated many times over several years, and recently was a NO SHOW at a SCHOOL BOARD meeting where HUGE CUTS made by the Liberals will start rolling out, again effecting RURAL Families. And a very POPULAR Mayor of Tumbler Ridge (won over his opponent with 78% of the vote) with connections in every community, has a Psychology Degree, is a lead in Addiction's for Northern Health, has brought in many new comers into the NDP fold, his campaign started late due to NDP Rules in the Candidate Search Process-- I place my bets on Darwin Wren. Mike Bernier's attitude showed big time at the Dawson Creek Trade Fair, Bernier the Liberal was alone in his booth found sitting in a Lazy boy Recliner most of the day, Kurt Peats seems ok but he wount make it.
    13 03 12 DFinch
    This riding was won by the BC Liberals, in large part, by Blair Lekstrom who, since 2001 has been unafraid to occasionally speak out against the government on various things. He is not running again and that will severely hurt the party. Spreadsheets alone can't predict a riding like this which, in the past five elections (back to 1991) have elected MLA's of three different stripes. It tends towards the Conservative side of the spectrum so expect the BC Cons to play a substantial role here. The NDP has never seen success in the Peace River but I believe the BC Liberal party will be decimated here without Lekstrom running and with the current Premier in office. Where their vote goes in this case is anyone's guess. This will be one to watch closely, despite the misleading margin of victory of 2009.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    If this falls, there is not a safe Liberal seat in the province. Nuff said.
    13 02 09 Jack Cox
    I've run numbers in the latest polling and of the 19 seats the BCL is projected to win in this this one is considered one of 4 safe seats. Sufficed to say this one will be kept by the Liberals.

    Navigate to British Columbia 2013 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    British Columbia Provincial Election - 2013
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2013 - Email Webmaster