Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011

Prince George-Valemount

Prediction Changed
2013-05-15 08:39:06

Constituency Profile


Bond, Shirley

Giede, Nathan

Ogasawara, Sherry

Roberts, Donald A.

Shirley Bond


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Shirley Bond*
    Julie Carew
    Andrej Joseph DeWolf
    Gordon Wilfred Dickie
    Don Roberts


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    13 05 12 Political junkie
    This riding will be interesting to watch. As an incumbent cabinet minister Bond has resources and a strong organization. However, if there is anger over the HST, questions about the wood innovation building, or questions concerning the fire at the Burns Lake mill, disaffected right wing voters who can't bring themselves to vote NDP have two right wing parties as places to park a protest vote. It is a difficult riding to predict.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    With the NDP vote holding at its floor of 45%, and the troubles of the incumbent, the only issue here as in the other Prince George riding is the extent of the Liberal loss. Dead incumbent party and MLA walking.
    13 04 25 Laurence Putnam
    I am inclined to agree that the desire for change will sweep across this riding as well. As great a campaigner as Shirley Bond is - in watershed *change* elections such as this one, there are always casualties. In this cycle, the casualties may even include the Premier herself, so in a natural bellwether like this I am doubtful Shirley can hang on. Perhaps even if the NDP had nominated a weak opponent, then who knows, but the NDP seem to have selected a fairly visible, energetic and likable candidate.
    Shirley's personal popularity will be reflected in a Liberal vote here which is going to be considerably higher than that in neighbouring ridings - perhaps even a fairly close race - but the desire for change is very real, particularly in this part of the province.
    13 04 05 bza
    Although the incumbent is running for re-election I think its one of those types of ridings where the desire for change may trump name recognition.
    With the polling, scandals, and some historical presence for the NDP in these ridings prior to the meltdown in 2001 I think it will be an NDP pick-up. Not a landslide necessarily, but enough to win it.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    Scandal and the desire for change make this an unlikely hold for the Liberals but not a sure thing for the NDP either. A close race that could go either way.
    13 02 12 P Kelly
    Shirley Bond will be unemployed after this election. The rage against the BC Liberals is more pronounced in the interior, especially in places like Prince George. Anger over the HST, Carbon Tax and extreme opposition to the gateway/pipeline project has turned this into hostile territory to the BC Liberals.
    Every pollster has shown a significant lead for the NDP in the north. Most recently, Angus-Reid showed a 45% to 32% lead for the NDP in the north - while in 2009, the BC Liberals won the north with 48% to 41%. Translated into seats, swing areas like Prince George will be lost to the NDP if the BC Liberals are down 16pts in the region.
    Shirley Bond isn't any more or less a nice person than any other party's candidates, she's running for the wrong party.
    13 02 05 Crucible
    Attorney General Shirley Bond has held this seat for several years. She is a master of constituency work with a common touch and attends every possible event and does it with good humour and a populist touch. She is well-liked even by some people who disagree with her politically. Bond will retain her seat this election by a wide margin despite energetic young candidates in the NDP.

    Navigate to British Columbia 2013 Home | Regional Index | Submission

    British Columbia Provincial Election - 2013
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Election Prediction Project, 1999-2013 - Email Webmaster