Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:50:46

Constituency Profile


Birch, Tom

George, Chris

Gunner, Steve

Kyllo, Greg

Zalcik, Johanna

George Abbott


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    George Malcolm Abbott*
    Steve Gunner
    Michel Saab
    Beryl Alberta Ludwig
    Chris Charles Emery


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    13 05 07 Laurence Putnam
    Another tough one, very similar in profile to Vernon-Monashee. Yes, the NDP won it in 1991 - with 35%. The Liberals had 33% and the Socreds had 28%. The Conservatives will do well, but certainly won't be in the high 20's, low 30's territory, so the NDP would need to beat 35% to take it.
    The 2009 Green candidate was the 1991 Gordon Wilson-era Liberal candidate - experienced campaigner who spent a few grand on the campaign - the Greens aren't likely to see double digits here this time. One must assume that most of that vote gravitates to the NDP.
    I am very tentatively going to agree that the winds of change are blowing through Shuswap - due in large part to the fact that the likable George Abbott isn't running again - although I don't think the situation is as bleak for Liberals as most posters here are suggesting. Indeed, I think this is one of the tougher calls in the province.
    The 1991 results aren't really a totally comparable precedent. Also note that the HST referendum was basically 50/50 here. Now I'm talking myself out of it...but as I say, I think I'll stick with the winds of change argument here.
    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    The Liberals needed to gather all the anti-NDP vote here but the Conservatives are growing rather than collapsing.
    13 04 13 bza
    With George Abbott not running again this looks like a riding the NDP will likely pick up.
    It was won by the NDP back in 1991, and given that the province is in one of its classic modes to do a dramatic shift and vote in a fairly large NDP majority government, this is one of the ridings that will likely be a pick up.
    13 03 12 DFinch
    Though the NDP ceiling in this riding has been fairly low, the circumstances are ideal for them to win Shuswap, as they did in 1991. The popular incumbent is not running, the BC Liberals are likely to bleed support to the Conservatives and the NDP is polling quite high across the Interior. Barring an unexpected turnaround, look for the NDP to take Shuswap with about 35-45% of the popular vote.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    These interior ridings will be much closer than usual due to the growth of the BC Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain over 10%, they will tip this seat to the NDP. This is one interior riding that will impacted by the desire for change.
    13 02 24 P. Kelly
    Lets be honest here. This seat had been almost a sure bet in the past for the BC Liberals when they had a significant lead in the polls. But almost every polling outfit suggests that the NDP has at least a 16pt lead province wide. This includes a plurality in areas like the Shuswap. Voters are readying their broom, and the sweep won't stop until the BC Liberals are reduced to the teens after the election day.

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