Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2013-05-14 23:49:01

Constituency Profile


Gordon, Carole

Guillou, Brian

Stewart, Ben

Ben Stewart


  • Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
  • Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order

    2009 Result:

    Ben Stewart
    Tish Lakes
    Peter Neville
    Robin Andrew McKim


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    13 04 27 NO PARTISAN BS
    This projects the NDP vote here to be about 5% higher than last time but even that small gain may be enough. The Liberals needed to gather all the anti-NDP vote here but the Conservatives are growing to the point where they can take the riding as easily as the Liberals. A three way points to the NDP possibly coming up the middle. This may be one of more interesting races to be decided.
    13 04 25 Laurence Putnam
    It's hard to imagine any riding with the word ?Kelowna? in it going to the NDP. These were once the mighty bastions of the dynastic Socreds and while the area has been changing and continues to change, much of it remains the same.
    With a 24-point margin last time, Stewart, running with the benefit of incumbency, is almost certain to be re-elected by simple process of elimination. The NDP never seem to get more than about a third of the vote here - so the Conservatives would have to make it a true three-way race to put this seat into jeopardy. They could do well, but I doubt a true three way race is in the cards.
    That leaves Stewart and the Liberals, who can probably bleed votes all the way down to 40-42% and still be OK.
    13 04 13 bza
    Probably safe to stay in the too close to call column for now.
    Most likely will stay Liberal in a narrow win, but if the Liberal meltdown continues there is an outside chance the NDP or Conservatives could win.
    13 03 08 NO PARTISAN BS
    These interior ridings will be much closer than usual due to the growth of the BC Conservatives. If the Conservatives gain over 20%, they will tip this seat to the NDP. Any higher and they might even take it themselves. A three way race goes to the NDP, a two-way race is an NDP loss.

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