Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Don Valley East

Prediction Changed
2013-03-11 22:14:00

Constituency Profile


Coteau, Michael

Kennedy, Angela

McLeod, Christopher

Sadikali, Akil

Simmons, Wayne

Michael Coteau


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Don Valley East)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 05 25 Marco Ricci
    I don't think anyone has said that 'proximity to Kathleen' determines what happens in this riding. The reason most people project this riding to remain Liberal is because it voted Liberal by nearly a 2-1 margin in the last provincial election, and only narrowly went Conservative in the last federal election despite the Ignatieff wipe-out. Therefore, most people predict this riding to remain Liberal not because of Kathleen Wynne being the MPP in Don Valley West, but based on historical voting trends and mathematical provincial projections. But the fact that Wynne's riding is nearby probably does help the Liberals a bit anyway since they can easily transfer campaign workers to this one if they need them.
    14 05 24 GH
    The previous comment is laughable. Michael Coteau was the Toronto District School Board Trustee representing the entire riding of Don Valley East from 2003 until his election as MPP in 2011.
    Angela Kennedy currently only represents half of Don Valley East as a Toronto Catholic School Board Trustee. That's four, count four, catholic schools in total. When Coteau was the TDSB Trustee, he represented over 30 schools in the riding.
    Coteau has great name recognition. The previous comment is simply untrue when it comes to Coteau not having a presence in the riding. The current amount of signs that are up are proof of this. He has held multiple community events in the riding each year and is actually quite popular among local residents.
    14 05 23 Marel Manoukian
    Michael Coteau is a very weak candidate. Since he was elected, he has done very little in the riding and has failed to make his presence known. In past elections, the PC Candidate either failed to make inroads into many of the diverse communities in the riding OR they were simply unknown with no name recognition. Angela Kennedy has a few things going for her, her name for one, the fact that she is an elected trustee in the riding, the fact that she is always seen at Asian and Armenian events (two massive communities in the riding) and lastly, the fact that she is well known among rate payer associations. I would not be surprised if she wins this time around.
    14 05 22 A.S.
    Angela Kennedy is more of a 'once a Catholic trustee, always a Catholic trustee' sort perennially trotted out by Tory operations on hopeful/wishful 'recognizable name' grounds. And as for the multicult/multieth Peanut--remember that Ford Nation notwithstanding, they give left-Lib Councillor Shelley Carroll landslides down there. Besides, Don Valley West ain't all WASPy Leaside, either; it's got Flemingdon and Thorncliffe. Coteau's a 'rising star'. Get over it.
    Date 14 Not Non-Partisan
    I think it's funny that proximity to Kathleen is thought to have some bearing here. Leafy Leaside might as well be a zillion miles away from the Peanut and wildly multi-ethnic, multi-cultural DVE. No way. In fact, instead of 'momentum' Wynne is stalled and will be a negative for Coteau. Kennedy has run here before (and is the Catholic trustee) and has been working for months. I think it will be close but if you apply the current Ipsos numbers to the calculus here, Angela has a real shot.
    14 05 13 Marco Ricci
    Don Valley East is nearly as secure for the Liberals as Don Valley West. If the Liberals were going to lose this seat, I think it would have happened in the previous election after David Caplan retired because of the scandals that went on when he was a cabinet minister. His successor Michael Coteau was able to win with over 50% of the vote, and has someone else mentioned, the Federal Liberals nearly hung onto this riding during the Ignatieff wipe-out in 2011. It's still pretty Liberal at this point in time.
    14 05 13 Adrian
    A great MPP who is always open to listen to concerns and take said concerns to members or parliament who have control over files that can impact change. Michael Coteau won by a massive margin the last time around and should maintain those numbers in 2014. He is well liked by the many families that call DVE home.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Normally a very safe Liberal riding and thus should stay Liberal. Federally the Tories only narrowly won this and its highly unlikely the Ontario PCs will get the same percentage they got as Tim Hudak still is unpopular by many while with the unions strongly behind the OLP, its unlikely they will tank the way their federal counterparts did.
    14 04 25 Aaron S
    Coteau is unpopular with the push for a Sheppard LRT instead of a Subway (which would go through the heart of the riding). Kennedy was elected here four times municipally, always winning with at least 45% of the vote. It will be close, but Kennedy will squeak through.
    13 09 14
    This riding is right next to Wynne's. Her momentum is sure to keep this one liberal.
    13 02 14
    Don Valley East is one of the Toronto ridings where the Conservative tide we witnessed federal will not be sustainable. With Coteau's increased profile as a minister, he should be able to defend this one for the Liberals.

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