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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Etobicoke North


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:36:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Barriffe, Nigel

deRoo, Allan

Milone, Tony

Qaadri, Shafiq

Robertson, Kenny

Incumbent:
Shafiq Qaadri

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Etobicoke North)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * SHAFIQ QAADRI
    1208148.46%
    KARM SINGH
    607224.36%
    VRIND SHARMA
    542621.76%
    GURLEEN GILL
    5412.17%
    CLAUDIO CEOLIN
    3911.57%
    JAMES MCCONNELL
    3201.28%
    GOPAL BAGHEL
    1000.4%
    2007 Result:
    * SHAFIQ QAADRI
    15,14754.85%
    MOHAMED KASSIM
    5,80121.01%
    MOHAMED BOUDJENANE
    4,10114.85%
    JAMA KORSHEL
    1,3124.75%
    TERESA CEOLIN
    1,2554.54%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1234252.73%
    503821.52%
    272911.66%


  •  


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    14 05 11 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Polling at one point actually *did* show a hypothetical Doug Ford PC candidacy winning over Qaadri--and even in the doghouse, an independent Ford candidacy might have a better chance of winning here than any PC standard-bearer. Which also says something of the neglected electoral toxic waste dump Etobicoke North's become over the years, i.e. if it were a UK seat, it'd be a top target *both* for the BNP *and* for George Galloway's Respect--with this in mind, maybe the only hope for electoral sanity beyond the safe Qaadri status quo is the wild offchance that Jagmeet-Singh-mania migrates southeastward. (And hey: unlike BGM, Etobicoke North actually *has* a strong ONDP recent past under Ed Philip.)
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This may be the heart of the Ford nation, but its more populist than right wing. A poor and heavily ethnic community and didn't go Tory federally even won they won 73 seats while stayed Liberal when they only won 11, so I think its safe to say this will stay Liberal. Rob Ford may win this area in the next mayoral election, but it won't go Tory either provincially or federally.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    Without Doug Ford as candidate this is a sure liberal hold (remained liberal federally, despite them falling to third in Toronto). Even with Doug Ford, I don't think a central Hudak campaign would have enough sway to give Ford the boost he'd need to win. This is the bedrock of Ford Nation, but it is this same 'Ford Nation' that abstained from provincially voting last time and will surely do so again. Qaadri will hold it.
    13 05 23
    129.100.197.217
    If the election had been a year ago and Doug Ford had been the candidate, he might have put up a good showing, but something tells me his chances of winning this seat now are cracked up. As it were.
    13 04 08 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Doug Ford just announced that he was going to be the candidate here. Of course, he first has to win the nomination. Other posters have mentioned the success of federal Liberals here, and as I've mentioned many times federal and provincial elections are totally different animals, so don't compare one with the other. Having said that doesn't matter if PC's have Ford or Jesus Christ, this riding shall remain Liberal.
    13 03 01 KS
    70.26.156.57
    A previous poster claims that if Doug Ford is the candidate, this riding will shift PC. That is far from the truth. The Liberal candidate won twice as many votes as the PC candidate during the last election.
    It should be noted that this is the only Etobicoke riding not to go to the federal Tories during the last campaign.
    Hudak has not gained much ground in Toronto, and even if he does this should stay Liberal.
    13 02 16 Jack Cox
    24.226.65.140
    If the Federal Liberals managed to hold this seat when the gates came crashing down I think the Provincial Liberals should be able to have enough votes to hang on here.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    Etobicoke will be closer than before. If Doug Ford was running for the Conservatives, I would give it to them. However, that idea never came to anything, and i'd expect the incumbent to be re-elected.



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