Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-09 07:55:00

Constituency Profile


Crack, Grant

Donnelly, Darcy

Leduc, Carl

Sabourin, Isabelle

St Martin, Raymond

Villeneuve Robertson, Roxane

Grant Crack


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    I live next to this riding. I remember in 2011 I thought this riding would go to the PC's, and then to my surprise Grant Crack of the OLP was able to win it despite the strong effort by the PC candidate. Now it's 3 years later and the PC's are making another strong effort. The riding poll shows them 4 points ahead, but with a margin of error that small, it may depend on who gets the vote out on E-Day.
    14 06 07 Toronto Star/Forum Poll
    Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (polled May 30, 560 people, accurate to within 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) Progressive Conservative Roxane Villeneuve Robertson 45 per cent, Liberal Grant Crack 41 per cent, New Democrat Isabelle Sabourin 10 per cent, Green Raymond St. Martin 3 per cent
    14 06 02 prognosticator15
    This is the only rural riding the Liberals still hold. Anti-Liberal anger against the gas plant scandal and against wasteful spending on wind energy is greatest in rural Ontario, and of all places, this riding will definitely go Conservative this time, assuming full PC voter mobilization and reasonably high turnout. A trend in Ontario Francophone rural areas has been similar to Anglophone rural areas in the rest of the province. Crack's engaging personality will not help this time, and the voters will replace him with a competent Francophone woman from the PCs (a daughter of the former PC member of Ontario legislature).
    14 06 02 A.S.
    The guy with the name like a Rob Ford joke first lucked into the candidacy, then into a Monty Python 'flesh wound' kind of victory, pretty much on the fumes of a long albeit decimated history of Liberal megavictory in this far-eastern part of the province--but hey, he's now the sitting incumbent, so that must count for something. Yet I'd still count on him as being among the 5 or so likeliest Liberal incumbents to fall--if he doesn't fall, that means Wynne's miraculous campaign worked wonders. (Doesn't hurt that, as Ag Minister as well as Premier, she's made plenty of farm-country photo ops.)
    14 05 29 maxvillejim
    Still too close to call. As I said before, if the Liberals can't hold this riding, they can't hold the province. My understanding is that Grant Crack is better organized this time around (the benefit of incumbency). There is still a lot of Franco support for the Liberals in Eastern Ontario..On the other hand, Roxanne Villeneuve has been the nominated candidate for over a year, and has been working the riding hard. The family name probably only helps her in the part of the riding where she already has support. All the polls I see show Liberls with 1% to 3% lead, so it will come down to the ground game, and leaders debate.
    14 05 24 Marco Ricci
    Grant Crack clearly doesn't have the same popular support that former Liberal MPP Jean-Marc Lalonde had as there was a huge drop in support when Lalonde retired in 2011. However, the fact that Crack was able to beat a strong Conservative candidate despite her having a head start and the advantage of being a Francophone, indicates he may be stronger than people thought. I'm also curious as to why Marilissa Gosselin is not running again after coming so close last time. Does that mean she doesn't think the riding is as winnable this time around? On the other hand, I'm also hearing a few Francophone voters I talked to say that Roxanne Villeneuve could get a boost from her family political lineage in this area. Still too close to call until we see the final polling numbers for Eastern Ontario over the final 2 weeks.
    14 05 22 Alice
    I actually don't expect this to be as close a race as others have predicted. I think Grant Crack will win by 4 or 5 points, at least.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    A rural Eastern Ontario riding that is just about the lowest hanging fruit for the Tories. Rural Franco-Ontarian voters have been moving away from the Liberals both federally and provincially.
    14 05 14 DC
    Grant Crack has no family dynasty to support him this time. He is running for a party with too much political baggage which unfortunately aligns with his tenure. The conservatives have a fair chance at this riding this time; especially, once you consider the margin the liberals one by in 2011.
    13 03 30 seasaw
    Grant won a close one last time. He was a rookie candidate who managed to hang on to a rural seat in a year when the Liberals lost nearly all of their rural base. This time though he's got his own merits as well as a party leader who's determined to regain her rural seats, there's no way they'll let go of this riding.
    13 04 27 maxvillejim
    There is no doubt this will once again be a very close race. If the Liberals can't hold this seat, they can't hold the province. You can bet they will throw everything including the kitchen sink to hold this riding. MPP Crack has been spending lots of time and energy in the Franco part of the riding North of the 417 to hold the traditional Liberal vote. His PC opponent is well known in the Sothern part of the riding, but that area traditionally votes PC anyway. Her challenge will be to take away the traditional Liberal vote in the French community. As the fortunes of the party's change in the polls, this could change the way this riding goes. I'll post again in the few months, unless there is an early election call.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    It was a very close race in 2011. Marilissa won on the ground, but the central PC campaign failed them. I see more undecideds having the confidence to vote PC here this time, and Roxanne will be heading to Queens Park.

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