Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock)
2011 Provincial Election Prediction
2011 Federal Election Prediction
2008 Federal Election Prediction
2007 Provincial Election Prediction
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| ||14 06 06
|'Alice' thinks this is going to be close. Clearly Alice is having fanciful memories of when the former PC Party Leader John Tory ran here in a by-election and plastered Tony Blair and Barack Obama all over his literature. No wonder he lost (yes...THAT one was close). |
This is conservative heartland. How do you possibly expect Rick to improve on his performance from last time? The PC's are polling at or near 50% in eastern and central Ontario. Must be everywhere else but here.....
Well...'Alice'...Laurie Scott isn't a carpet-bagger from Toronto like John Tory. Not that there was anything wrong with John Tory...but talk about running him in the wrong place.
Laurie is well liked...and won by a comfortable margin last time. Give your head a shake. Laurie will easily break the 50% mark...and 60% isn't impossible either.
| ||14 06 03
|One for the trivia books: a seat where in *two* consecutive elections, *three* MPPs past and present are in the running. All the same, it's Laurie Scott's to lose, as it should have been all along; nevertheless for his brief byelected moment, Rick Johnson kept the flame alive for a kind of down-home hinterland populist Liberalism--if only there was more (electably) like it these days; it'd compliment that Leslie Frost-era Red Tory vibe Premier Wynne gives off. (And for his efforts: while he inevitably lost in 2011, Johnson didn't lose as badly as some other incumbents like Maria Van Bommel--clearly in HKLB's otherwise currently-Gritophobic turf, a lot of people really did like what they saw.)|
| ||14 05 22
|I think its going to be close, but Rick Johnson isn't going to be able to beat Scott. PCs will retain this seat.|
| ||14 05 19
|Laurie Scott is well liked in this riding and should be able to hold the seat for ontario pc's . its hard to believe liberal Rick Johnson was ever actually mpp for the riding . |
| ||14 05 11
|I was in this riding during the John Tory by-election. I saw lots of John Tory signs with only one stake hammered in, and several signs actually posted upside down. That, combined with other things going on convinced me that the team on the ground, made up primarily of PC staffers whose MPPs wanted a new leader were intentionally trying to blow it. No way any other Party wins here in a general election.|
| ||14 05 04
|This only went Liberal in a by-election as John Tory was seen as a carpetbagger and many here don't like the idea of being represented by a Toronto politician. This time around the Liberals are seen as the more Toronto party while PCs in favour of rural Ontario, never mind Laurie Scott has strong local roots here, so won't even be close. I predict the PCs get over 50% this time around.|
| ||13 05 21
|The Libs have nominated Rick Johnson again, to go up against Laurie Scott for the 3rd time. His reward is a plum posting with the Party for now, & who knows what, after he is defeated for the 3rd time. Major local issues are wind turbines, unemployment, soaring hydro rates, & the myriad of Liberal scandals. Look for Scott to garner 50%plus of the vote.|
| ||13 03 22
|There has been zero sign of any Liberal or NDP activity in this riding. Is Rick Johnson going to take another bullet for the team or have the Grits conceded this riding already.|
| ||13 02 15
|Laurie Scott's comeback ensured the PC's got this safe seat back. They should have never lost it, and HKLB wont vote for anyone else this time.|