Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Nepean-Carleton


Prediction Changed
2013-02-13 18:35:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Corcoran, Coreen

Dagenais, Ric

Kubanek, Gordon

MacLeod, Lisa

Uppal, Jack

Incumbent:
Lisa MacLeod

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Nepean-Carleton)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * LISA MACLEOD
    2998554.48%
    DON DRANSFIELD
    1484426.97%
    RIC DAGENAIS
    812714.77%
    GORDON KUBANEK
    16412.98%
    ROGER TOUTANT
    2230.41%
    MARCO ROSSI
    2170.39%
    2007 Result:
    * LISA MACLEOD
    27,07050.28%
    JAI AGGARWAL
    17,73132.94%
    GORDON KUBANEK
    4,5008.36%
    TRISTAN MAACK
    4,0007.43%
    SUZANNE FORTIN
    5330.99%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1700537.04%
    2385851.97%
    308606.72%


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    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    Lisa Macleod won this riding with 50% + even when Dalton McGuinty was winning Majority Governments. She has also become well-known in the Ottawa area and is often a commentator and guest on the political shows on CTV & CBC, further improving her profile & influence.
    14 05 22 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    If Greater Ottawa were more like the GTA, the galloping subdivisionitis might make this more marginal--something like Ted Chudleigh trying to whack away Liberal opponents at his heels in Halton, or Helena J. prevailing for the Grits in Oak Ridges-Markham. But being Ottawa, it's super-safe--and now rendered super-duper-safe through gaffey Grittery.
    14 05 18 LB
    174.138.198.64
    Lisa may be reviled elsewhere, but she is very well liked in this riding. The liberal candidate's sexist remarks won't do him any favours. Strong PC.
    14 05 13 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Lisa Macleod is one of the higher profile Ontario pc mpp's and is well liked in this suburban Ottawa riding . she will likely win this riding once again . with major races being in other closer Ottawa ridings this year.
    14 05 11
    99.241.218.99
    Given this seat's PC history and MacLeod's increasingly prominent role in the party, the PC's would need to work quite hard to NOT win here.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    Whatever one thinks of Lisa McLeod, she is one of the strongest critics of the Liberals and likely would get a cabinet post if the PCs win. In addition this riding usually has an over 70% turnout as well as like most Ottawa ridings the results don't change much election to election as there are relatively few swing voters here, so regardless of which way the province goes, I am confident the PCs will hold this easily. Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa-Orleans are the only Ottawa ridings I could possibly see changing hands as they were really close last time around.
    13 05 02 Gone Fishing
    216.59.246.94
    This used to be my home town and I still spend a lot of time in this riding. It's rural, there isn't hardly a major town much less a small city in this riding. People are mad as hell about wind turbines STILL and they don't look at the last election as anything other than the start of the fall of the Liberals. Long time Liberal party workers are aging and they too admit McGuinty has ruined the brand. They'd much rather focus there efforts on the Justin Trudeau party federally than try in earnest to unseat Thompson.
    Lisa is also working her riding well, meeting people and hearing thier problems. She is proving to be a respected listener. I don't hear anyone saying they don't like her.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    134.117.196.241
    Lisa will once again have more votes beside her name than any candidate in the entire election. With a stronger Hudak campaign, she can take 60% of the vote this time, if not more.



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