Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Ottawa Centre


Prediction Changed
2013-03-01 17:54:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Dekker, Robert

McKenzie, Jennifer

Naqvi, Yasir

O'Donnell, Kevin

Wasslen, Larry

Incumbent:
Yasir Naqvi

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ottawa Centre)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * YASIR NAQVI
    2364646.81%
    ANIL NAIDOO
    1471529.13%
    ROB DEKKER
    925718.33%
    KEVIN O'DONNELL
    21844.32%
    KRISTINA CHAPMAN
    3090.61%
    MICHAL ZEITHAMMEL
    2400.48%
    STUART RYAN
    1600.32%
    2007 Result:
    YASIR NAQVI
    18,25534.91%
    WILL MURRAY
    16,16130.90%
    TRINA MORISSETTE
    10,41619.92%
    GREG LAXTON
    6,45812.35%
    DANNY MORAN
    5160.99%
    RICHARD EVELEIGH
    2830.54%
    STUART RYAN
    2040.39%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1948844.03%
    995622.49%
    1032823.33%


  •  


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    14 06 08 Andrea H
    99.226.107.253
    The NDP already holds this riding federally. There is no reason to think that this riding won't switch to them provincially. The NDP has been waiting years to expand into eastern Ontario and after Renfrew - Nipissing - Pembroke, this will be their best shot!
    14 06 02 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    On paper, it made no logical sense that after his maiden close call in '07, Naqvi would so resoundingly avoid being Orange Crushed in 2011--but such happened: proof that hard work w/the assist of an urban-friendly platform will get you places; it's as if Ottawa Centre voters in 2011 psychically foretold the 2014 Wynne vs 'Fordwath' dynamic. Right now, at best the NDP is bookmarking for future winnability--oh, that's still an issue, as long as Paul Dewar holds the federal fort...
    14 05 30 GV
    99.241.86.176
    The NDP's Jennifer McKenzie has a fairly visible profile as a public school trustee, but there's not much Andrea Horwath can do to woo Ottawa Centre's passionately anti-populist voters. Naqvi is certainly well liked locally.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Yasir Naqvi is popular in Ottawa Centre, who won easily last time against a high calibre NDP candidate and despite the fact that Paul Dewar holds this federally. Kathleen Wynne Liberalism plays better in this educated, urban riding than Andrea Horwath's populism.
    14 05 12 Marco Ricci
    99.241.63.7
    This riding was predicted to be close in 2011 and it ended up being a Liberal landslide for Yasir Naqvi. I was surprised because like many people, I had assumed that the endorsement that the NDP's Anil Naidoo received from Archbishop Desmond Tutu would help him. There were rumours throughout Ottawa during the campaign that Naqvi was in trouble. In the end, it appears his strong local popularity and organization held off the NDP challenge more easily than expected. If the NDP couldn't win this riding in 2011 under those circumstances, I'm going to give the edge here to Naqvi for 2014.
    14 05 11
    99.241.218.99
    The Liberals' attempts to appeal to left leaning urban voters should do them well in this riding. I predict numbers similar to 2011, with the Liberals possibly polling slightly higher at the expense of the NDP.
    14 05 06 Expat Ontarian
    162.156.58.248
    The NDP always seems to tease here, but Naqvi is personally popular and in this election cycle the Libs are working hard to woo soft NDP votes, which they will probably pick up in this riding. Very safe Liberal.
    13 05 05 LFC Ottawa
    67.70.86.206
    John K, you are correct. I wrote this before the nomination. That will make it even easier for Yasir to be re-elected.
    13 03 28 John K.
    99.239.200.66
    Actually, Cullen lost the NDP nomination race to Jennifer McKenzie, who is the chair of Ottawa
    13 02 24 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.20.189
    This will be a race to watch. The well known, controversial former councillor and MPP Alex Cullen will be running under the NDP banner, but Yasir has his own following and will be re-elected. Expect numbers that are not too far off from 2011.



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