Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 08:10:00

Constituency Profile


Bell, Bob

Bourdeau, Gerald

Lalonde, Marie-France

Lister, Andrew

M'Bemba-Meka, Prosper

Phil McNeely


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Ottawa-Orléans)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    The media loves to label ridings as 'too close to call' but this one really is. That doesn't mean it will be decided by just 1 vote on election night, but it's too close to call in the sense that the polling projections can't agree on who's ahead and the campaigns themselves don't seem to know. I spoke to some campaign workers this weekend, and they are gearing up for a big GOTV day on Thursday and aren't sure who will win. Both Lalonde & Lister have added an additional batch of signs around the riding over the past week to complement the signs that have already been here for the past month. Lister would appear to have the edge in signs, and he was strong in this aspect last time, but McNeely won on Election Night. Lister is bilingual, but from what I can tell Lalonde is getting the most enthusiasm from the Francophone community in Orleans, with Lister doing well in the Anglophone neighbourhoods like Blackburn Hamlet. Both Wynne & Hudak have been through here over the past week, nearly on each other's tails, proving that they both know this riding could be in reach. Last time on this site I predicted that it would go for Liberal Phil McNeely and it did. This time I'm unsure. Even the seat projection sites don't agree since 308 has it as PC, and Too Close To Call has it as Liberal.
    14 06 09 A.S.
    Sometimes, a near-winner in one election becomes a presumptive easy-frontrunner once the seat becomes open the next election--it happened on the federal Cons' behalf in a couple of SW Ontario ridings in '06; it happened to the PCs' Bill Murdoch in 1990, it happened to the ONDP's John Vanthof in '11; and to stretch things (due to redistribution/new-riding-creation), it may be argued to have happened to the OLP's Helena Jazcek in 2007. Somehow, I *can't* place the PCs' Andrew Lister in that easy-frontrunner category--oh, he may be a frontrunner, all right; but not an 'easy' one. Maybe if Lisa MacLeod inherited the PC leadership from Hudak, it'd be different...
    14 06 08 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    This is very low hanging fruit for the Tories. No incumbent, suburban/exurban Ottawa, Tories polling strong in Eastern Ontario, no McGuinty hometown advantage.
    14 06 04 Former Liberal Executive
    No incumbent and the PC candidate Andrew Lister finished very close last time. The scandal stink left by the Grits is taking its toll. Lister is headed to Queen's Park
    14 05 27 Marco Ricci
    New Abacus poll today (May 26) shows the Liberals ahead of the PC's in Eastern Ontario. If this trend is accurate, it could allow them to keep seats like this one as well as nearby Ottawa West-Nepean & Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. However, 308 shows this seat as still being 50/50 between the Libs & Cons so it's still too close to call.
    14 05 25 Arden
    Ipsos-Reid polling suggests East Ontario could very well may be the best area for Liberals, who are otherwise losing traction in the rest of Ontario with the possible exception of North, where voting desires appear to be stable although not much reliable data is available there.
    Lalonde will have a tough fight against the PC vote but I predict she will win here.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This is going to be closer with the incumbent retiring than it otherwise would have been. Ultimately I think this riding is going to stay Liberal. Lalonde is going to Queen's Park.
    14 05 19 R.O.
    There is no incumbent on this riding as well liked liberal Phil Mcneely is not running again and its likely to be a race between liberals and pc's as ndp not a major factor in this area. It's a swing riding that often votes for winning party . its also been very close lately for provincial and federal races so really too early to make a solid prediction.
    14 05 16 Marco Ricci
    Actually, this is not a Liberal stronghold - it's a swing riding. It's voted the same way as the province in the last several provincial & federal elections. The riding is held federally by the Conservatives. But although Lister ran in 2011, he's not a household name. As for the Liberals, there are pros & cons for them. One pro is that new candidate Marie-France Lalonde won't have the baggage McNeely had last time from his rivalry with Municipal politician Rainer Bloess. Bloess, although a Liberal, ended up endorsing Lister, and so Lister's increase in vote wasn't really because of his own candidacy, but as a result of the internal feud within the Liberal ranks. Lalonde also is a Francophone & fluent in French, something else that McNeely struggled with. This could give her an advantage with Francophone voters. The con for Lalonde is that she is not as well-known as McNeely. She doesn't have the name recognition that McNeely had as a City Councilor and 3-term MPP. She does have connections in the riding from her career as a social worker & businesswoman, but she will need to win a large share of the Francophone vote and depend on the Wynne campaign staying afloat if she is to retain this seat.
    14 05 12 Marco Ricci
    This has been a swing riding in the past several elections - it is not a Liberal safe seat. It is true that Phil McNeely's margin of victory dropped in 2011, but it did not have much to do with Andrew Lister. It was because of an internal Liberal feud between Councillor Rainer Bloess and Phil McNeely. Their rivalry and difficult working relationship led to Bloess endorsing Lister, which caused a drop in McNeely's vote. McNeely has now retired, and this has pros and cons for the Liberals. The pros are that it allows a candidate without the baggage from the Bloess-McNeely fight to start fresh. The cons are that the new Liberal candidate does not have the name recognition McNeely did as an incumbent MPP and former Councillor. However, Lister, while having run in 2011, is not a household name in the riding, either. The new Liberal candidate, Marie-France Lalonde, does have one advantage McNeely didn't - she is a Francophone & is completely fluent in French - something that McNeely struggled with. Lalonde may also be able to draw on her years as a social worker & businesswoman in the riding, particularly in the Francophone community.
    14 05 11
    With the PCs polling well in Eastern Ontario and the Liberals' loss of the incumbency advantage, this should be a PC pickup.
    13 02 10 LFC Ottawa
    This riding will be a pick up for Hudak with Andrew Lister winning on election night. In 2011, Andrew was nominated a few days before the writ dropped, and he cut a Liberal safe seat from 18 points to 5. This time he is known in the riding, and Phil has quit. As well, with recent events, the Liberals do not have a candidate yet. With Horwath likely bringing some of the ridings PSAC and PIPSC members from Liberal to NDP, its a Conservative win as long as the PC central campaign does not fall apart again.

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