Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Oxford


Prediction Changed
2013-02-23 11:48:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Farlow, Michael

Hardeman, Ernie

Hodges, Tim

Moulton, Daniel

Smith, Bryan

Wright, Devin

Incumbent:
Ernie Hardeman

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Oxford)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * ERNIE HARDEMAN
    2065854.87%
    DAVID HILDERLEY
    941024.99%
    DOROTHY MARIE EISEN
    588515.63%
    CATHERINE STEWART-MOTT
    13363.55%
    LEONARD VANDERHOEVEN
    3590.95%
    2007 Result:
    * ERNIE HARDEMAN
    18,44547.27%
    BRIAN JACKSON
    11,45529.36%
    MIKE COMEAU
    4,42111.33%
    TOM MAYBERRY
    3,4418.82%
    JIM BENDER
    6591.69%
    LEONARD VANDERHOEVEN
    6011.54%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1465137.50%
    1705943.67%
    503612.89%


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    14 05 28 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    Given the increasing auto-industry element in Woodstock/Ingersoll, Andrea-on-overdrive *could have* targeted this--but that's just about the only ultra-faint hope of dislodging ol'Ernie.
    14 05 05 Numbers Pundit
    209.239.28.137
    One of the safest PC seats in the province. Hardeman will enter his 20th year as the MPP for the riding in 2015. He returned to his 1995 and 1999 totals exceeding 50% of the popular vote in 2011 after dipping in both 2003 and 2007 when province-wide preferences were decidedly anti-PC. Hardeman will likely serve until health rather than desire limit continuing.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    One of the bluest ridings in Southwestern Ontario, so the PCs will easily hold this as they are ahead in Southwestern Ontario, especially in the rural areas.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    This is one of the safest Tory seats. The Tories have only lost twice here in the past 5 or 6 decades. Once was in 1987, which they suffered their worst defeat, and once in 1990, when they were just rebuilding. So, it is safe to call this a PC hold.



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