Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-06-11 19:10:00

Constituency Profile


Beamish, Gary

Faux, Gerard

Leal, Jeff

Martindale, Brian

Matheson, Wayne

Quiano, Andrea

Stewart, Gary Scott

Wood, Sheila

Jeff Leal


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Peterborough)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 06 11 Bill Bott
    I cannot understand how this has not been called for Jeff Leal. He is a popular incumbent. The NDP vote has collapsed and Scott Stewart has not run a strong campaign. Jeff Leal will win this election.
    14 06 10 Marco Ricci
    This is one of those bellwether ridings that the t.v. decision desks watch each year to see which way the provincial trends are going since it has voted with the government in pretty much every election over the past several decades. Tim Hudak made a point of stopping here about a week or so ago. But most seat projections & numbers for this riding seem to have it leaning Liberal (Eric Grenier's site at 308, and Bryan Breguet's site at Too Close To Call). It certainly wouldn't be a shock if it went to the PC's since they were a strong 2nd last time and hold the riding federally (well technically I guess Dean Del Mastro is an Independent at the moment while awaiting his Elections Canada fraud trial). But if the provincial trends still give the edge to the Liberals on Thursday, they should win this by a small margin.
    14 06 10 A.S.
    Well, surviving 2011 plus 'Wynne Liberalism' appealing to the Trent U crowd gives Leal a boost--though being surrounded on all sides by PC hinterland will make it eternally in play; then again, who knows what negative spillover the federal Del Mastro scandal has. But it's interesting how the subsequent Wynne/Horwath dynamic was present here in miniature preview in '11: the Grits cutting away at some of the overwhelming NDP advantage in the hip inner core, while the NDP repatriated some of of the lower/middle base that had drifted Reform-a-Tory rightward north and south of the core. So if something of that dynamic endures or furthers itself and Leal sleepwalks back in, anti-Horwath wags might claim it's a 'split in the right' that's to blame (droll, very droll)
    14 06 09 therealbatman
    One of, if not the most reliable bellweather ridings in the entire country. Look for Stewart to win this narrowly, and join a PC minority government at Queen's Park
    14 06 09 Pete
    I would say the Liberals should hold this one. I don't think this seat is as in play as it would seem given the close provincial race and the ridings history of voting with the winning party. The Conservative brand is a little tarnished given the investigation into the local (former conservative) MP and with a very large public sector work force, large hospital, MNR, Flemming and Trent, Hudak's plan to slash public sector jobs is a very hard sell here.
    14 06 08 TY
    I'm a little confused as to why this is being called for the PCs. Threehundredeight has the Liberals winning this riding with 79% confidence and a projected race of 46% Liberal, 29% PC. Jeff Leal is a long-serving and well liked MPP in this riding, and the large portion of loyal seniors combined with the strongly Liberal core city should see him re-elected.
    14 06 06 northerner
    This will be RAZOR close. PC's are now somewhere around 50% in eastern Ontario. This means the seat is in play. Now it all depends on if Stewart can win all the rural polls excluding Hiawatha and Curve Lake (like he is supposed to)...and who wins in the suburbs of Peterborough south of Landsdowne and west of Monaghan Rd. This is a classic swing seat that has elected a government member virtually every time since confederation.
    The NDP will do well in the core of Peterborough...always do. Much will depend on GOTV. If Stewart wins..it will be on a vote split. If Leal wins..it will be because of NDP support voting for him to block a PC win.
    I don't expect any candidate to break the 40% barrier....unless something changes in the polling picture this weekend. TCTC.
    14 06 05 R.O.
    Is a tough riding to predict or maybe easiest riding to predict as its been ultimate bellweather riding over the years . this riding had a lot of potential for the pc as they now hold all the ridings that surround Peterborough and have won the riding in the past and have a descent candidate in Gary Stewart . Tim Hudak has also been to the riding during election a couple times but its likely pc's would need to be ahead or at least tied in the polls to take this one. It's a riding that really could go pc if the conditions were right but might stay liberal or could even go ndp if they surged which is unlikely .
    13 05 05 Non-Partisan
    Jeff Leal will easily carry this, Scott is a nice fellow but not well known and will not benefit from dad Gary's record as former local PC MPP. Sheila Wood not as strong as perennial NDP candidate Dave Nickle, no chance.
    14 05 05 northerner
    P.B doesn't know what he/she is talking about. Trent students haven't, aren't, and never will
    14 05 05 KS
    The party that wins the most seats in the election will likely win Peterborough. At the moment is seems like the Liberals will form another minority government, keeping Peterborough with them.
    14 04 05 P.B.
    I would not count out the NDP in Peterborough. In a close three way race, they could very well come on top, especially if the election is held during the school year and Trent students turn out to vote.
    13 03 22 Keen Observer
    I don't think that Leal's recent appointment to cabinet will be enough to save him. A LOT of angry constituents in Peterborough, especially over the devastation the Liberals have caused to the horseracing industry. Scott Stewart should win this riding fairly easily.
    13 03 19
    As Ontario's longstanding and most consistent bellwether, Peterborough will continue in this tradition for the upcoming election. Too early to say which party will win the most seats, but it's fair to say that Peterborough will be in the column of the winning party.
    13 02 14 PTBO Pundit
    PC by a heavy landslide. Leal is a nice guy but does not stand a chance without McGuinty's coat tails. Wynne seems like a nice lady, but its going to be a massacre trying to sell her in Peterborough. This election is done and over, especially in this riding.
    13 03 03 LFC Ottawa
    A stronger NDP will see the PC's come up the middle and defeat MPP Leal.
    13 02 11 northerner
    Leal is a dead Liberal walking. Peterborough may end up as a 3-way split if the NDP numbers hold...and if that is the case...Leal is toast. Peterborough has gone with the winning party in virtually every instance since confederation. I can't see the Liberals winning the election...and...without jinxing it...I can't see the NDP winning the election either. Ahh the laws of inevitability. PC pick up...but by a hair.

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