Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke


Prediction Changed
2013-03-01 17:53:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Beckwith-Smith, Chad

Boileau, Roderic

Dougherty, Brian

Reid, Murray

Wright, Benjamin

Yakabuski, John

Incumbent:
John Yakabuski

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * JOHN YAKABUSKI
    2759470.78%
    JOHN O'LEARY
    623115.98%
    BRIAN A. DOUGHERTY
    427710.97%
    KYLE JONES
    5741.47%
    MURRAY REID
    3090.79%
    2007 Result:
    * JOHN YAKABUSKI
    24,97562.34%
    SEAN KELLY
    9,90524.72%
    FELICITE STAIRS
    3,0387.58%
    MARK MACKENZIE
    1,7774.44%
    BRUCE DEAN
    2920.73%
    TILTON BEAUMONT
    760.19%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1569842.00%
    1638643.84%
    451212.07%


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    14 06 06 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    John Yakabuski will easily hold this riding for the pc's , I don't see any of the other parties being that competitive in this area this year . he seems to be a well liked mpp and has done well last few elections in this rural and small town riding .
    14 05 25 Pure Whig
    65.92.197.233
    Hey Spadina trinity. May I once again remind you that this is not a riding where one can state there is a Liberal advantage due to historical reasoning.
    I find your comments utterly lacking in merit, and rather ignorant in the most comprehensive meaning of the term.
    To whit........
    First, there is a large Kashub population yes......and an equally large Wendish one......they cancel each other out just as easily in Renfrew county as they did in Siliesia.
    Second, While from a census standpoint there are many 'french catholic' names in the riding extremely few are culturally French and thus do not vote with that identity or it's resulting baggage/collective opinion.
    Third, if you want to play the mid twentieth century ethnic/religiosity game what not point out the deep seeded Orange background within the local Scottish, Irish, and German populations.
    Fourth, again if that's a route you wish to take, Irish Roman Catholics in this riding have trended strongly Conservative for the last 20 years. (Kashubs I am less familiar with so can't comment.)
    Seriously, yes we know this is an easy Tory romp this go round. The NDP candidate is smart and articulate. The liberal is unknown and will remain that way. Not an issue but the overly simplistic commentary is.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    With a large population of Catholics of French, Irish and Polish ancestry, Renfrew used to be a pretty strong area for the Liberals. Yet the populist-conservative/social conservative swing has been quite dramatic: this was where the Canadian Alliance won a seat in 2000 and then in 2003, when Ontario turfed out the Tories, this was their only pickup. John Yababuski got over 70% of the vote last time. Kathleen Wynne the Toronto elite liberal probably fits in about as well as John Kerry in West Virginia.
    14 05 12 Pure Whig
    199.243.125.2
    The last post misses two an important point. I don't beleive this riding was ever safe for the Liberals. Sure Sean Conway owned it, but it was as a personal feifdom, not as a party stronghold.
    More importantly I become very weary of the old saw about Hopkins and Conway. The old Renfrew North riding trended Conservative for most of its history except in times of strong Liberal surges such as the election that brought Conway to office in 1975. Credit must be given to Conway for keeping a strong rein on it until his retirment.
    However, I remain at a loss why people forget that provincially Renfrew South was Tory Blue from for all but two years from 1943-1999 (the two years being Quilty's byelection win before being toppled by Yak senior in the 60's). Federally, Renfrew South was Conservative from 1957-68, and again from 1972-1993. There has always been a strong bastion of Tory support here.
    14 05 11 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    If back in the Sean Conway (and, federally, Len Hopkins) era, you were to suggest that RNP would a 70%+ Tory seat within a generation, you'd have been looked at like you were exposed to Chalk River radiation or something. But an interesting indicator of potential electoral Potemkin here: the 2011 e-day turnout within Pembroke proper (traditionally a base of Liberal support) was abysmal--a teens-or-twenties % of registered electors in many polls. Non-existent opposition campaigning, voter suppression, or just plain disillusionment w/the options offered? What gives? (And interestingly enough, one saw the same curious awful-turnout pattern in Brockville--the principal urban centre within the *next* strongest PC riding, Leeds-Grenville.)
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    The PCs got 70% last time around so a win like that doesn't evaporate without a good reason. They may not win as big as last time around as this riding doesn't always follow provincial trends, but that really doesn't matter as the PCs will win this in a landslide either way.
    13 02 24 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.20.189
    John had 70% last time, and he will take it again no matter what happens.



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