Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Scarborough Southwest

Prediction Changed
2013-03-07 22:41:00

Constituency Profile


Berardinetti, Lorenzo

Del Grande, David

Foaleng, Jean-Baptiste

Kang, Nita

Macaulay, Jessie

Rose, Tyler

Lorenzo Berardinetti


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Scarborough Southwest)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 05 Mr. RN (Raja)
    ROGERS TV SSW Debate moderated by Dale Goldhawke June 5, 2014
    Just saw the candidates debates with SSW Candidates - L. Berardinetti, M. Kang, J. Macaulay and D. Del Grande. The issues included Jobs, Energy, Transit, Economy and Pensions.
    Goldhawke's First Question: What are you hearing at the doors?
    Berardinetti: appeared unprepared or was ready to read off notes. He looked disoriented as he began by talking about Variety Village and Providence Villa and says he got funding, but Goldhawke interrupted him by telling him to answer the question. He then spoke about jobs but wasn't able to give a figure on how much jobs. Seemed lost in the discussion.
    Macaulay: Jobs important issue but identify the need to create right conditions for companies to invest and expand. Says at the doors, people not buying any job creation numbers from anyone.
    Del Grande: says can't be realistic about job numbers but says we need to do more. Says PCs math is wrong on Million Jobs...looks like only 75,000.
    Kang: was the Female version of Hudak just belching out the PC platform on every issue. Performed better that Hudak.
    All candidates did what they had to do which was to deliver their party platform on Rogers TV to the local Scarborough Southwest voters on Transit, Energy, Pensions and Economy.
    The incumbent Berardinetti took issues with mostly Kang and Macaulay but offered little in substance as to why he disagreed when given a chance to respond by Goldhawke. His response was incoherent and at times appeared to be lost in what he wanted to say.
    Kang came out with a new PC line that in the first 100 days of taking power, they will have a 'new study' on the Transit Relief line! Don't if Hudak knows about this one!
    On Pensions, Kang said that let the people decide...but Goldhawke interjected and said that hasn't worked. All other candidates except Kang were in general agreement that Pensions is something that needs attention.
    On Energy cost Berardineti said it's Harris that caused this and then got into a discussion that show how unprepared he was or just didn't know. Macaulay talked about knocking off the HST, Kang would scrap the Energy Act and Del Grande called for a more sustainable Energy Plan that would encourage residents to become less energy dependent.
    General Observation: Scoring 1 - 10
    J. Macaulay - 8 (WINNER)
    D. Del Grande - 6
    L. Berardinetti - 4
    M. Kang - 3
    Macaulay seemed the most prepared, focused and appeared to have a genuine connection with people at the door.
    Del Grande delivery was good but gives the appearance as someone who is not from the riding. But he did well in general.
    Berardineti was lost. Very very poor performance. Appears to be out of touch with residents. Variety Village and Providence Villa were the Liberal Party program as a gov't and not something he fought for. He seemed lost during the debate and wasn't able to deliver any blows except Hazel MacCallion words that it's water under the bridge.
    Kang like Berardineti was a failure. She stuck to Hudak's plan and sounded like she's running as a Tea Party candidate in the US.
    14 05 27 Mr RN (Raja)
    This was an NDP seat (Stephen Lewis, Warner)but went Liberal with the defeat of Dan Newman. The current NDP candidate has revitalized the residents of Scarborough Southwest largely because of what many residents feel as their MPPs 'no show' or complacency. Kathleen Wynne's leadership is not the issue in this riding but access to Lorenzo B. He does not return residents calls, rarely keeps appointments and behaves as if he afraid to meet the people who voted him into office. We get flyers in our mail box but Mr. Lorenzo B. is a no show. He was mute on the quarry issue and on the Wind Farm issue that residents felt needed his attention.
    The PC has show that it does have some support but with the continued on going activism of the Federal MP Dan Harris, residents feel a sense of engagement as he keeps regular 'Town Hall' meetings that are open to all. Now, he is at the doors campaigning for the NDP candidate and so he is welcomed and viewed as someone who only shows up at election time. Now, this is a breath of fresh air for voters. So based of the foregoing which is representative of the views of may Southwest residents, I believe that this riding as well as Scarborough-Rouge (Balkissoon's) will go NDP. And it is all for the same reason - continued engagement with residents.
    14 05 24 Initial
    Took a drive thru the riding today and it looks like a Berardinetti's team is winning the sign war. I was also surprised not to see a single NDP sign. Liberals will hold this seat based on name recognition and organization.
    14 05 22 A.S.
    There shouldn't be anything surprising about the NDP being competitive here--it *was*, once upon a time, a cornerstone Orange seat (not least back when Stephen Lewis represented it)--but the Wynne bandwagon going like gangbusters may preempt it this time; then again, this is about as 'Fordwath' as such NDP-competitive seats go in Toronto (and its federal predecessor had 1997's best Reform result in the 416). Maybe one other weight off Liberal shoulders is that unlike in 2011, Lorenzo B. doesn't have a spouse on Ford's exec...
    14 05 07 Dr Bear
    Federally the Liberals fell to third place in a close three-way race that no one was predicting. My instincts are saying that this could be a closer race than what's being predicted. Time will tell...
    14 05 06 DL
    The Liberals will probably take this one. A lot of Scarborough residents seem to like how the liberals have handled the subway issue and the investments in transit. This riding has enough Liberal support to probably squeak by.
    13 03 03 seasaw
    Another Scarborough seat that shall remain Liberal. The NDP, may come close but won't win it. The Tories finished third the last time, they have the same candidate, Mike Chopowick, not a bad guy, but certainly not a winner, he's likely to finish third again.

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