Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Toronto-Danforth


Prediction Changed
2013-02-16 14:35:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Armstrong, Thomas

Azaroghli, Ali

Luisi, Simon

Newman, Rob

Power, Rachel

Richardson, John

Rowley, Elizabeth

Solomon, Naomi

Tabuns, Peter

Tristan, Parlette

Incumbent:
Peter Tabuns

Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Toronto-Danforth)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction


    2011 Result:

    * PETER TABUNS
    2006254.01%
    MARISA STERLING
    1136930.6%
    RITA JETHI
    34889.39%
    TIM WHALLEY
    13543.64%
    JOHN CHRISTOPHER RECKER
    4401.18%
    KEVIN CLARKE
    1430.38%
    NEIL MERCER
    1100.3%
    STÉPHANE VERA
    1070.29%
    JOHN RICHARDSON
    750.2%
    2007 Result:
    * PETER TABUNS
    17,97545.85%
    JOYCE ROWLANDS
    11,44829.20%
    ROBERT BISBICIS
    4,42311.28%
    PATRICK KRAEMER
    4,37211.15%
    MARK SCOTT
    4601.17%
    MICHAEL KIDD
    2730.70%
    SHONA BRACKEN
    2530.65%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1153130.75%
    634516.92%
    1763147.03%


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    14 06 10 MGK
    50.101.58.213
    Big Jim might be right that the NDP could be down to one seat in Toronto -- but if that does happen, this will be that seat.
    14 06 06 Matt L
    207.164.79.44
    Even though the NDP has dipped in the polls in the city, I believe this riding will remain orange. The Liberals would have to overcome a 9000 vote deficit from 2011 - a feat that would require a red tide in the 75+ seat majority territory. The NDP has a huge and reliable base in the area - the MP, two city councillors and trustee are all NDP. This is a riding that stayed NDP even after their weak 1995, 1999 and 2003 provincial results. The votes Tabuns loses in Riverdale and Leslieville from left-of-centre voters mad about Horwath's perceived shift to the middle or voting down of the Liberal budget could be alleviated by an increase in support among small-c conservatives in East York who are drawn towards the NDP's 'bread and butter' platform like cuts on hydro rates. Expect the massive local NDP margins from 2011 to dip, but this should remain firmly in the NDP column.
    14 06 05 Big jim
    99.237.175.18
    Red wave about to hit TO again and maybe only 1 ndp left after
    14 05 22 Alice
    67.70.86.233
    Despite the falling numbers of the NDP in Toronto, I think this seat is safe for them.
    14 05 20 A.S.
    99.233.52.111
    The only Toronto ONDP seat where the Liberals only put in a token effort in '11--and surely not out of rote respect for Jack, given the near-derailment of Rosario Marchese's supposed sure bet in Olivia's federal stronghold (and Jack's actual home riding).
    14 05 14 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    For many Toronto progressives, Tabuns would have been the better choice for ONDP leader. Either way, this is the safest NDP seat in Toronto and Tabuns will hold on easily.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    70.49.168.176
    Peter Tabuns would appealed a lot more to Toronto progressives than Andrea Horwath as NDP leader. Horwath's left-Fordist populism doesn't play well in inner city Toronto. Nonetheless this is the safest riding for the NDP in the city and Tabuns should have no trouble hanging on.
    14 05 04 monkey
    174.114.16.226
    This has long been a strong NDP riding and unlike Trinity-Spadina where you have the new condos shifting it towards the Liberals, no such change has occurred here.
    13 09 14
    198.200.89.110
    This is the bedrock of the Toronto NDP. If the liberals took 60% in Toronto (very unlikely), this seat would still be NDP. Tabuns will comfortably hold.
    13 02 16 seasaw
    99.225.1.213
    Four big reasons why NDP will hang on: 1; MPP Peter Tabuns is high profile, experienced, well liked and well respected 2; The riding has always sent an NDPer to Queens Park even when the NDP has done very poorly everywhere else 3; the polls right now suggest that NDP has the highest level of support since Rae days 4; The Liberals in the past have recruited some high profile candidates in order to win this and that's back when their support was sky high, and NDP support was at an all time low, they failed, now the tables seem to have turned a bit. There are many other reasons, but I think the four that I've mentioned should suffice.
    13 02 15 LFC Ottawa
    70.30.21.69
    It's Toronto Danforth, need I say more - NDP win



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