Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Saint John-Rothesay


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:24:13
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Griffin, AJ

Long, Wayne

Murphy, Sharon

Weston, Rodney


Population/populations
(2011 census)

82129


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

1788249.72%
1105230.73%
575015.99%
9922.76%
Other 2880.80%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Saint John
   (188/190 polls, 99.86% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Rodney Weston
17812
11031
5742
988
Other288


   Fundy Royal
   (2/190 polls, 0.14% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Rob Moore
70
21
8
4



 


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15 10 17 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I agree with Atlantic Election Guy that Saint John will probably be a narrow win for the Conservatives based on a vote split between the Liberals & NDP.
It's important to remember though that the only reason this riding stayed PC in 1993 was because of the personal popularity of Elsie Wayne. She retained it for a couple more elections after that but note that it went to Liberal Paul Zed after she retired.
So it is possible for the Liberals to win it given the right conditions. Apparently Justin Trudeau will be visiting here this weekend for the final campaign tour, so perhaps the Liberals think it's still in play. Could still be TCTC, but we'll find out in a couple days.
15 10 16 SC
24.137.123.177
Okay, time to call the remaining New Brunswick seats. I say Tobique stays with the Tories, and the Liberals get this one; the most recent polling is close enough that I think it will go to the party with the momentum in this race. Coin toss, though, really.
15 10 16 Atlantic Election Guy
207.179.144.100
One of the only ridings to stay Conservative in the 1993 election should stay with the CPC this time. I think this is one of the only ridings in Atlantic Canada that will be affected by vote splitting. With a strong NDP history provincially and tight contests in the past, I expect Weston to sneak through the middle... barely.
15 10 13 SC
24.137.123.177
New Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting shows a very tight race here: 36 CPC, 34 LPC, 26 NDP amongst decided voters; 32 LPC, 32 CPC, 21 NDP amongst all voters.
http://www.friends.ca/files/PDF/Mainstreet-Report-15oct13.pdf
15 10 13 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I'm not sure if the Liberals can win here yet, given that they finished a distant 3rd in 2011 and have had trouble being competitive here ever since losing former Liberal MP Paul Zed. And the fact that the NDP seemed to have momentum earlier in the year may have sapped some of the Liberal potential here.
On the other hand, CTV's Robert Fife reported last night on CTV National News that the Conservatives are afraid of losing 12 of their 14 Atlantic seats, so it's possible this could be vulnerable now.
15 10 14 Jeff S
12.10.199.12
This poll shows that it's TCTC. But the trend is in the Liberal direction.
https://www.friends.ca/files/PDF/Mainstreet-Report-15oct13.pdf
15 10 11 M
216.46.155.92
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada.
15 10 10 Spx
70.53.241.122
This one is hard to predict with the vote split on the left. Even though their is no regional breakdown of the numbers for all the Atlantic provinces, I still think the Liberal numbers are higher than 308.com and others have them for NB and I am going to call this one for the Liberals.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
24.226.65.140
The Liberals should have enough momentum in the Atlantic to win this seat, if individual riding polls come out we might be able to know better but I think Wayne Long is going to win this.
15 10 09 Stevo
82.124.227.34
The most vocal non-federal politician in this campaign is Ontario's Liberal Premier who also happens to be the person most committed to blocking Energy East. That will not be lost on Saint John's voters, and Liberal or NDP commitment to new pipelines is tepid at best. Conservative hold here.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
'Conservative support for Energy East' will end the same way Conservative support for Northern Gateway and Keystone XL did: Failure, dead in court.
The Conservatives just do not know how to deal with modern environmental rights and the climate issue, they just deny it and try to bully projects through by putting clearly conflicted parties on an 'energy board' that is then charged with making environment, health and ecological decisions...?!?! People qualified in 'energy' can't make such decisions, and there is no court in Canada that will ever let them in the long run. There is no choice but to go back to well regulated processes that actually result in licenses that the public doesn't resist in the woods.
So for that reason, above others, it's the Liberal not Conservative and not NDP candidate who's going to take this riding. If Saint John wants a bitumen pipeline, whether that's a good or realistic goal or not, it's just never going to get one using the tactics that Conservatives employ.
Look at fracking: Signed deal, RCMP attacking protesters, exploration already happening, strong federal support... and the Cons just lost and lost and lost until David Alward was gone. Now the Liberal provincial government is strongly supporting Energy East, so exactly why would any voter in Saint John -- Rothesay who wanted that project not vote Liberal?
There isn't any reason, which is why the vast shift to the Liberals lately http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls-atlantic-canada/ and the collapse of NDP support in the region is going to decide this one.
15 10 06 Stevo
82.124.227.34
Conservative support for Energy East will keep Saint John Conservative. Paint this one blue.
15 10 02 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
According to the latest polling, the Liberal lead has grown in the Maritimes over the course of the campaign, and it is the NDP numbers that have dropped off. (In fact, today's Nanos shows the NDP falling behind CPC in the Atlantic region).
It's hard to say what will happen here now. NDP chances here have decreased, and so it could remain Conservative, or it could go Liberal if the non-Conservative vote lines up behind the Liberals.
Nanos - Atlantic
LPC - 53.7
CPC - 22.2
NDP - 19.4
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151001%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf
15 10 03 Floyd
23.17.91.132
This riding will not be won by the NDP. Candidate Griffin has been non-commital about the Enegy East pipeline proposal to bring Alberta oil to the St. John refinery. This is not good for her campaign. Support for the pipeline is strong in a city that is struggling economically. In addition, the NDP has been in a steady decline in Atlantic Canada from the mid 30s in August to 23.2% as of Oct. 2 (source CBC Poll Tracker). A recent visit from the Prime Minister to the Irving refinery with the Chairman of Irving Oil sharing the stage will help the Conservative incumbent Rodney Weston, and this riding has a long history of voting Conservative (source Wikipedia article on this riding), but it may not be enough to prevent Liberal candidate Wayne Long from taking this seat. Long has expressed strong support for the pipeline (though Trudeau has been more cautious) and the Liberals are polling at nearly 50% in the Atlantic provinces (source CBC Poll Tracker). NDP voters discouraged by Griffin's lack of support for the pipeline (yes, some local NDP voters would support the pipeline) and committed to ending Harper's reign will likely park their votes with Long. It's a tough call between the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP out of the running.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
71.7.138.94
The NDP campaign has released a misleading if not outright fraudulent graphic calling their candidate the 'only choice' citing 2011 results.
While it is less fraudulent than other NDP graphics in the region that hide the '2011', the 'only choice' language is beyond desperate & into something that Elections Canada should probably be looking into. There is no excuse for this, especially not when the riding level polls, regional polls, etc. all show the NDP badly behind. It was wrong when Liberals did it in prior elections, and it's wrong now when the NDP does it. It's not a solution to electoral fraud, to have more electoral fraud, is it now?
This is now clearly a Liberal versus Conservative race. If A. J. Griffin does not have control over her own campaign organization, or veto over a clearly misleading and fraudulent 'only choice' claim like this citing the Layton/Ignatieff numbers, then she isn't fit to be an MP, and it's probably good that this is become a traditional two way race. Sorry A. J. but a bad campaign manager and organization do have the power to sink you.
Every facebook thread where this graphic appears has the credible 2015 data cited in response. Such desperate 2011 number replays have also been angering other NDP supporters in the region. Time for some heads to roll.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
An update to my earlier projection.
I'd encourage people to see my comment in Parkdale in Ontario.
Part of the math I've run indicates the NDP will not do as well in New Brunswick as people might expect based on 'Atlantic' polls. NDP support in the Atlantic seems to be being weighted towards Newfoundland, where it will be wasted on rural ridings they can not win. As such this sucks a few points out of the NDP vote in all NB ridings, including this one. Those few points are needed, as without them, the Tories hold.
15 09 25 R.O.
24.146.23.226
There was a riding poll released for this riding by environics there results were – 38 cpc , 33 lib , 25 ndp , 4 green . this riding appears to remain a close race but current mp Rodney Weston has a slight lead
15 09 21 Politico
70.49.244.207
With less than 4 weeks to go, my sense is there is more going on below the surface than people think. As a life long resident of Saint John, and someone that leans PC,the convential wisdom is that the riding is a 3 way horserace. Although not a measured poll, just driving around and looking at lawn signs, it is becoming clear this is a battle between the NDP and the LIberals, and I would give the edge to the NDP. Coffee shop talk, is that the incumbant Rodney Weston needs to go. The national dislike for Harper is clearly having it's effect in this riding as with many, but it goes beyond that here. Weston is preceived as being a bit of a dud. He rarely shows up for public events (although that changed pre-election), and was ranked the 5th least spoken MP in Parliament. In addition to this, the economy in the region is absolutely dismal. My bet, is that even in Saint John, where there is a history of voting against the national trend, change is coming. I would say even further, on October 19th, the margin of Westons defeat will surprize the local political junkies.
15 09 12 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
After leaning NDP for a while, recent numbers have had the Liberals going up here, too.
In any event, Stephen Harper himself stopped by Saint John a couple of days ago, which is probably a sign that the Conservatives are on defense here.
TCTC for now.
15 09 11 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This is a tough riding to get a feel for. it had some really close races in 06 and 08 but in 2011 it went cpc rather easily. Rodney Weston has been mp since 2008 after he beat liberal Paul Zed . Saint Johns is somewhat of a swing riding though when compared to other New Brunswick ridings. Both the liberals and ndp have new candidates this year who have not run in the riding before or have a lot of political experience. So its tough to predict how they might do here. Its likely the race here be closer than 2011 with current mp having somewhat of an advantage as he's incumbent .
15 09 04 Teddy Boragina
69.165.135.72
I'm trying - this year - to not harp on too much about the math on this website, but this riding may need it. The NDP is, in many polls, at or over a third of the vote in Atlantic Canada.
Unless those voters are magically stacked up in Nova Scotia, PEI, and Newfoundland, that means that ridings like this one - where the NDP did *very* well last time, will be going NDP this time.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
173.212.125.221
Accepting the correction of A. S. re Elsie Wayne, who really did not become nationally known as a noxious hate cultist until after her last election here. It's ancient history anyway. This is more of an 'Irvings' riding with a strong resistance, albeit a split one. The Green candidate seems, as in Fredericton, to be positioned to pull NDP votes rather than from others, which leans this riding Conservative due to vote splits, but its early days.
Like Newfoundland and PEI and NS it appears NB may be becoming hostile to Conservatives in general. Trudeau's appeal that he will 'get the job done' on dirty oil / bitumen pipelines may swing some votes in NB Liberal.
I repeat my prediction that the Liberal Party of Canada is heading towards long term merger as the Conservative Party of Canada collapses in the east and become unelectable. I can't see them holding more than 10 seats total in Quebec and NB, and am predicting zero Conservative MPs for NL, NS, PEI with the possible exceptions of heavily split ridings with no clear leader to the anti-Harper movement. Long term it'll be similar to Alliance days and will force the same kind of Liberal-Conservative merger as in BC and Quebec provincial politics. NB is just among the last to get this memo.
15 08 01 Politico
5.254.97.98
Six months ago I would have bet money on Rodney Weston taking this for the Conservatives. Not anymore, and I actually think a change is highly probable. What's interesting is in riding polling, the NDP are neck in neck with the Conservatives and they don't even have a candidate yet. Not a good sign for Weston. However s hard as Long (Lib) is working, if the NDP come up with a strong candidate, look for Saint John to go Orange.
15 07 24 Mad Caper
47.55.194.157
This seat is definitely up for grabs if the polling in the Atlantic Provinces is at all accurate.Threehundredeight.com has the New Democrats in a slight lead in a seat that they were not considered a contender a few months ago. When you look at the decline of both the Liberals and Conservatives support in this riding in the last few months it is clear that this riding deserves to be in the TCTC category for the time being. Should the New Democrats continue to climb in the polls as we get closer to Election time in the Atlantic Region look for more of these surprises. For now TCTC.
15 07 22 Dr Bear
66.49.146.118
The threehundredeight polling aggregate is now showing an NDP win here. While I still say this is CPC's seat to lose, we may be seeing a blue to orange trend that has occurred elsewhere in Atlantic province's cities.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
24.224.172.37
Changing my prediction after the departure of Peter MacKay. While NB is far less directly affected, the invigorated Liberal focus on Maritime seats will certainly be felt here. The departure of MacKay is being understood and interpreted by most ordinary people as meaning that the old PC Party no longer exists, no longer has any role or status in the Conservative Party, and that the thing to do if you ever want to moderate the Cons, or see a provincial PC government again, is sit on your hands for Harper.
The scent of blood is in the air and the campaign here will be much fiercer than expected. We may be seeing a massive change in Maritime politics with the old PCs shifting their loyalties from Harper/MacKay to Trudeau Liberals.
This riding will be affected far LESS than most, but by that I mean we won't see the Liberal landslide that I now expect in former Conservative seats in Nova Scotia, or those formerly held by advocates of fracking etc.
15 04 30 A. Voter
99.246.239.27
An Abacus poll today said the Conservatives lead the Liberals by eight points nationally. A recent Globe and Mail column by Eric Grenier said the Liberals traditionally drop six points over an election campaign. In the last NB provincial election, the Liberals only won one out of every three anglophone ridings. At this point I would look for the Conservatives to hold most of their NB seats.
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
69.171.130.83
I will add my voice to the growing chorus that say this riding is TCTC. I think A.S. described it best when he compared Ms. Wayne's appeal to that of 'Hurricane Hazel'. As well, the Liberal's have been able to hold this seat in the recent-ish past. All things considered, I'd have to say that the Liberals do have a good shot here, though it is the Conservative's riding to lose.
15 03 29 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
I don't think the Tories have this quite sewn up, I've seen internal polling and right now the only seats that look very safe for the tories are New Brunswick Southwest and Fundy Royal, The liberals are behind by about 10% in Tobique-Mactaquac but this is anything but a sure thing for Tories it's neck and neck here and with the Liberal Poll numbers in the Atlantic Rodney Weston is going to have to work overtime.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
This is not a solid Tory riding by any stretch of the imagination. Unlike the surrounding rural areas, most Tories here are former PCs, not Reform/Alliance types thus can easily switch to the Liberals. The Tories held this in 1993 due to Elsie Wayne being a popular former mayor, not because it was a PC stronghold. In both 2004 and 2006 when the Tories got over 30% in Atlantic Canada, the Liberals won this and likewise even in 1988, the PCs only barely won here so if an election were called today I think the Liberals would take this as the NDP vote would swing behind them as well as most Red Tories. Nonetheless the Tories have a strong enough base of around 30% they can count on so if the Liberals mess up badly or the Tories see their numbers improve in Atlantic Canada they still might hold this.
15 03 26 A.S.
99.233.23.228
Elsie didn't 'hold her seat' in 1993; she was newly elected to a seat vacated by Gerry Merrithew (with help from split Liberal ranks; Merrithew's 1988 opponent ran as an independent). And really; Elsie thrived more as a larger-than-life personal-mandate character a la Hazel McCallion or Charlotte Whitton than as a local-value-reflecting 'repugnant hate preacher', so to offer that label as an excuse to write Saint John off as a lost cause is truly myopic--look: in terms of provincial political history, Saint John is more of a 'PC' than 'Confederation of Regions' node, and given how the Hatfield/Lord/Alward pattern of New Brunswick PC governments have fit squarely into the Maritime 'Red Tory' mode, that's no stigma. And besides, when Elsie retired from Parliament, her replacement was...a Liberal: Paul Zed. That is, SJ-R isn't as solidly CPC as it looks: 'likelier' than other urban Maritime seats more by default than anything. And if the Cons are stronger in New Brunswick than the rest of the Maritimes, it's due to the vestigial Confederation of Regions spirit in more plainly ruralish seats like Fundy-Royal, not due to the enduring 'Elsie-ism' of Saint John. That is, if Justin continues to poll at Maritime landslide levels, SJ-R is an excellent candidate for going with that particular flow.
15 03 21 Brian A
174.114.116.132
If Harper can count on any urban seat in Atlantic Canada staying on his side, it'll be this one. Saint John may have been NDP-friendly back in the day, but no more. True blue Tory here, without a doubt. Weston is going back to Ottawa.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
76.11.94.51
Slightly less willingly-blue-poison-drinking than the more rural NB Southwest riding, but still a Conservative hold.
This is the region that re-elected the repugnant hate preacher Elsie Wayne, one of only two Mulroney/Campbell PCs to hold their seat in '93.
Unlike Charest, Wayne did not represent the progressive wing of the party.
Editor's Note: Elsie Wayne was first elected in 1993.



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