Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:30:34

Constituency Profile


Hamidi, Qais

Hu, Fang

Lachance, Suzanne

Mai, Hoang

Mendès, Alexandra

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 760.16%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Brossard-La Prairie
   (166/217 polls, 78.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hoang Mai

   (51/217 polls, 21.38% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Sadia Groguhé


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15 10 10 SC
The redistributed Liberal vote in this riding for 2011 was already pretty close to a win (certainly closer than they came in many other places they're now likely to win). Combine that with the Liberal surge in Quebec, now polling at least double their 2011 vote in most measures, and an experienced campaigner and former MP in Alexandra Mendes, and I'll call that a Liberal victory.
15 09 14 Marco Ricci
At the beginning of the year there was a strong chance of this riding going Liberal, but increasing NDP numbers in Quebec have reduced those chances in recent months.
However, some polls are now showing a rise in Liberal numbers in Quebec this week (Ipsos, Nanos, etc.) and the Liberals are still projected to win here by 308.
Tom Mulcair also stopped by Brossard earlier this month with the NDP MP, so that may be another sign that the race is still competitive for both parties.
Btw, Expat, the Liberals have never been 4th in Quebec this year. There was one rogue EKOS poll that showed that last month, but all current polling has the Liberals in 2nd in Quebec, and above the level of support they received in 2011.
15 09 02 A.S.
A Liberal projection would have made more sense before polls started showing L'équipe Mulcair heading into the Nicola Sturgeon stratosphere; also, Allophones aren't necessarily Sherbrooke-obsessed Angryphones, and Hoang Mai's a Quebec-caucus overperformer (by comparison, it isn't like Mendes made much of a mark for herself in her short term in parliament). I still won't jump to predicting--hey, there's *got* to be room for air in the 450 orange room...
15 09 02 mr_Vince
@Expat: Brossard is a city where Francophone represents less than 50% of the riding.
Brossard: 20% of the riding is chinese, 30% Arab, Latino, Haitians etc.. 5-10% east european (mostly romans)and another 5-10% of Anglo-quebeckers which mean that 35-4
15 08 28 Expat
With recent polling having the Liberals down to only 12% in Francophone Quebec and 4th place overall in the province, they are at strong risk of losing ridings they currently have. That is to say, expecting to win new seats against an incumbent opponent is an ambition currently far out of reach.
This wouldn't even be near TCTC at this point, with polling numbers as they are.
Reference: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/08/28/ekos-poll-duffy-awakening-slumbering-electorate/
15 08 17 Canadian Election Atlas
The Liberal vote here was inflated in 2011 due to the race being close in 2008. A lot of would-be NDP voters voted Liberal in 2011, because they looked at the 2008 results and thought that voting Liberal would be the best way to prevent the Bloc winning. This time, those voters will back the incumbent, who is a rising star for the NDP.
15 06 29 mr.vince
that one will be TCTC. Mendes is a long time appreciate candidate by the locals, a big allophone proportion of the population in here.
Mai was elected with the huge Orange Crush but I do think with the comeback of the liberals that allophone and anglophone in here will go back LPC.
but, has it is always each time, what will be put in the box might be surprising. It will be a LPC-NPD battle
15 04 01 Marco Ricci
This riding is probably leaning towards the Liberals right now.
1) Former MP Alexandra Mendes is running again. What's interesting about Mendes is that she was the only person in Québec in 2008 except Justin Trudeau to beat a BQ MP. Mendes appears to be a strong campaigner who knows the area well. (She used to be an assistant to former Liberal MP Jacques Saada).
2) As pointed out below, the new boundaries make this riding more favourable to the Liberals. Whereas the NDP won in the Orange Wave here by a large margin, the re-distributed results only give them a lead of about 4 points. And since NDP numbers are down in Québec from the Layton Wave and Liberal numbers are up, Mendes can win back this seat.
15 03 28 monkey
Unless the Liberals implode in Quebec, this is a low hanging fruit for them. La Prairie which is generally not so Liberal friendly has been lopped off while the parts they picked up from Saint Lambert are the most Liberal friendly. I am not quite ready to call this only due to the fact Quebec is unpredictable in general.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
The south shore is showing significant Liberal support and the Liberals can usually count on support from Brossard (both federally and provincially). Add the fact that the relatively popular former Liberal MP is running again and that the NDP (with their unabashed support of Quebec nationalism) has turned off Quebec's non-Francophones in droves (a significant demographic here), I expect this to resoundingly return to the Liberal fold.

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