Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-11 00:08:48

Constituency Profile


Chivu, Daniela

Dhillon, Anju

J. Carbonneau, Vincent

Morin, Isabelle

Ndiaye, Soulèye

Vaudry, Jean-Frédéric

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 3610.79%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (130/223 polls, 55.97% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Isabelle Morin

   (93/223 polls, 44.03% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hélène LeBlanc


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15 10 10 Marco Ricci
Dr. Bear, you are correct that this riding is leaning Liberal in theory right now according to the numbers. The current seat projections by Eric Grenier & Bryan Breguet both show this seat now in the Liberal column.
But because there has been so much volatility this year between the parties as well as uncertainty about how some of these re-drawn ridings will vote, it's been wise for sites like this to keep ridings as TCTC until the final numbers come in during this last week before the election.
So, Leaning Liberal, unless there is yet another change of fortunes!
15 10 09 Dr. Bear
With NDP support plummeting in Quebec (and having been behind the Liberals in Montreal), and with a riding that has a significant number of Anglophones (who have returned to their Liberal roots), and with polling numbers solidly calling this for team red, shouldn't the TCTC prediction be updated to Liberal?
15 09 05 A.S.
Lachine's been *part of* solid Liberal turf, but that doesn't mean it, itself is--in fact, it's operated in recent elections as an stubborn enclave of heavy-duty Franco-Bloc support within the otherwise ultra-Liberal West Island. Which also means: it's the part which made the former NDG-Lachine riding turn NDP. *That* should be factored into whatever happens here.
15 09 03 Observer
I agree with Mario Ricci on this one... We are three weeks into a LONG campaign, which began while many are on vacation, or at least in vacation mode, and not really paying serious attention. What happens after Labour Day and up until the actual vote is what really matters, and we may start seeing some radical shifts.
French language debate, and in this riding, the English debates matter too are coming, in addition to the fact that people will start paying attention to the news again.
Quebec can be a volatile place too, so while the NDP may be riding high now, it could turn on a dime. In 2011, until the moment Duceppe and Marois appeared together and he dropped the 'defender of Quebec's interest pose for the 'Independence' one, it appeared that Quebec would be a replay of 2008.
I know this riding well having lived there for many years, and Dorval/Lachine is solid Liberal turf. I ran for the Libertarians in 1988, and the Liberal nominee Victor Drury came within 700 votes of knocking off Bob Layton, and Clifford Lincoln racked up huge majorities.
On the other hand, I know several former Liberals who say that Isabelle Morin has surprised, and been a good constituency MP, so this one could go either way.
15 08 22 Marco Ricci
Mr. Dave, it's certainly true that the NDP got good numbers in this week's CROP poll. I just posted on the Lac. St. Louis riding that it's even possible for them to challenge the Liberals there again like they did in 2011 if they still have those high numbers by October.
One has to keep in mind though that we can't call ridings like this based on one poll taken during the Summer 2 months before an election. While the NDP are several points ahead of their 2011 numbers in this poll, so are the Liberals.
So the Liberals can still be competitive in a riding like this provided their numbers don't fall any further, or if the NDP numbers level off over the next 2 months.
15 08 21 Mr. Dave
C.R.O.P. has just released a Quebec-based poll that shows the NDP in the lead with 47% voter support, while the Liberals are far behind with 20% support.
Should those numbers hold up, I don't see many Liberal gains in this electoral cycle.
NDP hold!
15 08 17 Canadian Election Atlas
The NDP won this seat by a decent margin in 2011, calling it Liberal at this point is a bit premature. The NDP is polling at about the same percentage as they did in the last election, while the Liberals are only polling a little bit better. Ridings like this one will be close, but are certainly not shoe-ins for the Liberals at this point.
15 03 24 Dr.Bear
Unfortunately for Ms. Morin, the non-Francophone vote in Quebec has thundered back to the Liberals. Isabelle has been one of the few Quebec NDP MPs who has actually tried to connect with the Anglophone and other non-Francophone voters. While the Quebec NDP caucus eschewed from Canada Day festivities, Ms. Morin posted a youtube video for the holiday and participated in the festivities in Montreal West. Nevertheless, the party's pro-nationalist stance has poisoned them in the minds of many voters, and the Sherbrooke declaration was just a spit in the face to Federalist voters.
That said, watch for the city of Dorval to vote solidly Liberal and Lachine to be a patchwork of red and orange.
15 03 21 Mr. Montreal
Cette nouvelle circonscription, regroupant la plupart de l'ancien comté de Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine, est francophone par endroits et multiethnique dans d'autres. À cet égard, le passage de l'ancien comté au NPD en 2011 a été une grande surprise. L'écart est loin d'être insurmontable pour les Libéraux. Circonscription trop « urbaine » pour les Bleus et trop peu francophone pour le Bloc.

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