Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

La Prairie


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:31:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Chicoine, Pierre

Chouinard, Normand

Perras, Yves

Picard, Christian

Poissant, Jean-Claude

Tomas, Joanne


Population/populations
(2011 census)

99811


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

47869.45%
2530849.96%
669613.22%
1303425.73%
7351.45%
Other 910.18%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
   (100/195 polls, 51.18% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Sylvain Chicoine
2085
13535
1754
7348
359
Other57


   Brossard-La Prairie
   (95/195 polls, 48.82% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hoang Mai
2701
11773
4942
5686
376
Other34



 


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15 09 20 A.S.
99.233.125.239
A new seat totally drawn to benefit the Bloc (pre-2011) or NDP (2011+). Even in the 'Alexandra Mendes' part, the Liberals were third behind the Bloc in 2011.
15 03 30 2015
142.166.223.138
C'est probablement encore un siège NPD quand ils ont eu deux fois plus de votes que les autres candidats dans le dernier election. Les trois autres seront très proche pour deuxième place.
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
Despite the fact the Liberals have won Brossard-La Prairie recently, they have never performed well in the La Prairie portion thus best bet are it goes NDP unless the BQ totally rebounds or Quebecers vote Liberal strategically en masse to defeat the Tories.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
204.187.20.75
New riding with totally new candidates. This is a complete blank slate at the moment and no one seems to be standing out. While this used to be BQ territory and the new normal is NDP winning former Bloc seats, the south shore of Montreal has been polling as an area of significant Liberal support. Also, this area has shown to swing provincially. While I would give the edge to the NDP, it is far too early to tell if it'll go red or orange.



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