Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Laval-Les Îles

Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 23:49:01

Constituency Profile


Breton, Yvon

Dick, Roland

El-Khoury, Fayçal

Pilon, François

R'Guiba-Kalogerakis, Faiza

Redhead, Nancy

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4831.08%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Laval-Les Îles
   (202/202 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

François Pilon


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15 10 17 DSR
The Leger poll published today gives the Liberals a six point province wide lead over the NDP. All voters: Lib 31%, NDP 25%, BQ 23%, Con 20%. Anglophone voters: Lib 51%, NDP 22%, Con 20%, BQ 4%. Francophone voters: Lib 27%, BQ 27%, NDP 26%, Con 20%.
On these figures it will be tough for the NDP to hold off the Liberal challenge in this riding.
15 10 11 Marco Ricci
I guess the factor that is difficult to figure out about this seat is what the normal level of Liberal support would be here at this point in time.
This was one of the most secure ridings for the Liberals in Québec for the nearly 2 decades prior to the 2011 Layton Wave. It was Liberal for the Chrétien years, and even stayed Liberal during the Martin era and the Sponsorship Scandal. And during when Dion was leader. Part of that was most likely because of the popularity of MP Raymonde Folco.
The Liberals were hit with a double whammy in 2011 -- Folco unexpectedly retired at the last minute before the election (after originally planning to run again) and then the Libs were hit with the Orange Wave. As a result, there was a more dramatic drop in support here than in most of the other 7 Quebec seats the Libs lost.
So although the NDP won by a large margin in 2011, it may not have been representative of the true dynamics here. Dr. Bear & Teddy Boragina may be correct that Liberal support will re-appear here.
Niether party has a big candidate advantage since the NDP incumbent has only been in for 1 term, and the new Liberal candidate was just selected a few months ago. Really kind of depends on trends in the Laval/Montreal area.
15 10 11 Dr. Bear
While the CPC and BQ have caught up to where they were on e-day in 2011 (when they bombed in the province), the Liberals are way up. Extrapolating a result based on current provincial polling numbers, the Liberaks would win this seat. At the very least, this riding should be TCTC.
15 10 09 Teddy Boragina
It is not only important the NDP is down in the polls, but important why - Niquabs.
These kind of 'cultural' issues play better in the Corona, including Laval, than they do elsewhere.
Add to that the NDP is in trouble on the math alone, and this math adjustment only makes things worse.
15 09 20 A.S.
Aside from Mulcair's provincial history, this is a weird seat to get a 'read' of. Superficially, 2011's raw notional figures suggest yet another Orange Crush rubber stamp; however, if we're dealing with Sherbrooke Accord-spurred greater Anglo-Franco vote polarization in 2015, we ought to be prepared for an anti-NDP swing well above the provincial average, too--also, the Greekburban undercurrent seems rather 'Justinian' in spirit. So, definitely a case where whatever's suggested by *pre*-2011 electoral benchmarks will make whatever difference...
15 07 06 Poll Reviewer
308.com has this riding at 67% for the NDP as of July 6. The methodology does not necessarily predict individual ridings, but gives a good idea of regional trends.
Obviously too early to make a change of call, but this should be TCTC at this point.
15 06 18 2015
Doubtful the Liberals will win here with the NDP crushing them here last time. This is also where Tom Mulcair was an MNA before running in Outremont so that might help a little too.
15 05 07 Pierre Poirier
15 04 05 Marco Ricci
I agree that it's too soon to make a Liberal prediction here. While this was a Liberal seat for many terms under former Liberal MP Raymonde Folco, it went NDP by a 2 to 1 margin in 2011 when she retired. Obviously a lot of that was because of the Layton Wave, but it still means we have to wait until closer to the actual election to determine what the regional trends in the Laval area are.
15 03 28 monkey
I wouldn't be so quick to call this for the Liberals. While I agree the Liberals could win any or all of the Laval ridings, Laval is generally a bellwether and Quebec is unpredictable so if the NDP pulls into a double digit lead in Quebec, they may still hold this one.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Up until 2011, this was the only Laval riding that the Liberals could rely on. Now that they've regained their luster in Quebec, and especially in the Montreal area, they should easily retake this riding.
15 03 21 Mr. Montreal
L'ouest de l'Île-Jésus se distingue du reste par sa communauté orthodoxe très importante, notamment à Chomedey. Aussi, Laval-sur-le-Lac est reconnue pour être fortement aisée, et Laval-Ouest et Fabreville sont plutôt mitoyennes, ce qui fait de Laval--Les Îles un comté très hétérogène. L'historique du comté étant favorable pour les Libéraux, celui-ci devrait basculer en leur faveur en 2015. Il est à noter toutefois que le chef néo-démocrate Mulcair a grandi dans le coin et a été député provincial de Châteauguay, mais je ne suis pas certain que cela devrait affecter le vote beaucoup.

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