Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:36:59

Constituency Profile


Burrows, Bill

Carter, Roger

Erskine-Smith, Nathaniel

Kellway, Matthew

Sach, Randall

Sears, James

Surjanac, Peter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1300.27%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Beaches-East York
   (212/212 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Matthew Kellway


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 SPP
This is a changing riding and one that is becoming increasingly more Liberal. The Ontario Liberals shocked the NDP by defeating Michael Prue in last year's Ontario election, and Trudeau seems far more popular in Ontario&Toronto than Wynne. 308 gives this one an 80% chance of going Liberal. On balance, I think it's safe to call this one as a Liberal gain.
15 10 16 Torontonian
Marco, both Akin and Harper in their news stories appeared to base their predictions of a tight race on the fact that Trudeau visited Parkdale, the Beaches and Davenport. I didn't see any new riding-specific polls or anything of that nature.
Leaders are supposed to try to move ridings into their column. The fact that he visited suggests the Liberals think they have a chance, that the result may be closer than last time, but they still need more voters to switch.
So, barring a further Liberal surge over the weekend, I still think the local factors lead to an NDP hold here.
15 10 15 Marco Ricci
Both David Akin & Tim Harper are reporting that Beaches-East York is now a potential NDP loss.
So unless Liberal support drops in the 416 over the next 3 or 4 days, Kellway could be in for a closer fight than expected.
15 10 13 Frank I.
This should be a clear win for Matthew Kellway. I get the feeling that most of the people who have commented on this riding are not electors here. Kellway has a much stronger connection with the people of this riding than he is being given credit for, and being a strong constituency politician and visible community supporter is all important in this riding. It certainly worked for the previous incumbent who was not otherwise impressive. I also have to say that Kellway has been a very highly regarded opposition MP and critic, particularly on the urban affairs and military spending files. Considering that he was an ardent Mulcair supporter from the earliest days of his leadership campaign, I expect that Kellway would be a shoe-in for cabinet if the NDP can form government. Finally, I understand from friends who have visited his office that he had raised more money and put up more signs early in this campaign than he had done in the 2011 campaign. Combine all of this with an under-performing Liberal candidate and an increase in Conservative signs in the riding and I think Kellway is a safe prediction.
15 10 13 CB
I watched the debate on Rogers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORLX4nvKOAA) and thought Nathaniel Erskine-Smith was FAR better than Matthew Kellway (who seemed like a bulldog in a china shop - ready to fight, but not so ready to bring change). Only NDP and Liberal have a chance, and between the two the choice was clear.
Lots of Liberal signs now, my neighbours across the street actually took down their NDP sign, and those without signs tend to tilt Liberal/Conservative.
Beaches East York is going Liberal this time.
15 10 12 Mark
Erksine-Smith made it through law school? He was flubbing his party policy and tripping over his prepared messaging. It was almost creditworthy that he still showed up. I can't imagine a guy of Kellway's quality and street cred losing, but then again B-EY ditched provincial stalwart Michael Prue in favour of a garbage burning lobbyist from outside the riding. B-EY has made it clear that residents are more than happy to turf top quality candidates from a bad team in favour of weak ones from a winning team.
15 10 13 Bill777
I canvassed in this riding on Thursday last week. The undecided are breaking towards the Liberals. The anti-Harper vote is coalescing around Trudeau.
15 10 11 Torontonian
There is danger in following 308.com's predictions, which take provincial trends and then try to apply them locally. They currently have the Libs at a 73% shot here, but then they also currently have Parkdale at 67% Lib, and that will go orange by 5-10,000.
There is a clear variation in support for 905 vs 416 ridings, and the NDP will do much better in the 416 than in Ontario generally.
Kellway wins here.
15 10 12 Adeline96
I can't help but think that some of the previous posts sound like self-promotion pitches from Sears himself. This race is between the NDP and Liberals (if his municipal run has proven anything, it's that Sears has been prone to do some loony things). The Conservatives and Greens will do poorly, and Sears probably won't even garner a percent. Matthew Kellway is the incumbent MP, and while not necessarily high profile, he would have likely taken a Parliamentary Secretary position if the NDP still had a chance of forming government. Kellway has been a visible MP, but this riding did flip Liberal provincially. Of course, with this riding being a Liberal-NDP race, strategic voting won't be a large factor here (other than Tories possibly shifting their vote to the NDP to prevent a Liberal seat gain and government). I'll give the edge to Kellway right now.
15 10 08 Drichards
I just saw the Rogers TV debate for Beaches-East York. Kellway creamed Erskine-Smith. Our guy Burrows didn't do badly at all. He stuck to his guns and didn't do any damage to himself. But Erskine-Smith was trying to say he disagreed with Trudeau and that Trudeau allows dissent. It sounded so desperate. I was rather impressed with Dr. Sears the independent. He effectively took advantage of the forum to get his message across. He definitely stole the show with his narcissistic rants. He came across as honest and sincere, and he likely picked up a considerable number of the undecided, angry, and non-voter crowd from this one performance. This debate is worth watching just to see Sears demonstrate how to leverage this type of forum. My guy Burrows has no hope in winning due to all the lefties in the riding, so I'm tempted to throw Sears my vote just to encourage him to develop himself for the next time around.
15 10 07 Suresh
What's with all the materials from James Sears? My mailbox is getting hammered with some pretty high-quality glossy cards delivered by Canada Post. This guy seems to be heavily financially committed and is making alot of sense, at least in print. I can't see most residents of Beaches-East York voting for him, but I can see a large percentage of angry voters making him a protest vote that could, in a tight race, turn the tide in one direction or the other. Was he at the Rogers debate that's scheduled for air tomorrow night?
15 10 06 David Gates
Prior to writ periot I would have agreed that Mr Kelway was in danger of losing this his seat to a Liberal opponent which could have been just about anything or anybody. Well just about anything or anybody is what the Liberals nominated with the rather unremarkable Nate Erskine-Smith. Then the NDP fortunes improved putting B-EY in the NDP column but more recently declined putting it back into toss up status.
Lately some libertarian oriented traditional CPC supporters have actually been migrating to the NDP column due to that party's opposition to the poorly drafted and hastily passed Bill C-51. They may strongly dislike the NDP's economic policies but they even more strongly dislike ending the need for police to obtain search warrants and turning CSIS loose on such national threats as alternate life style dating sites.
Certain religious and ethnic communities within B-EY also may feel that their members are being singled out for discrimination under C-51. Nate can kiss those votes goodbye thanks to the unprincipled stand of his Great Leader, Justin Trudeau, who supported this dreadful bill.
Now with the TPP deal, those who dislike it will vote for the NDP MP Matthew Kelway. Nate might get the 'never heard of it' vote plus a few super stoners who think the TPP means 'Throw Potheads in Prison'.
In conclusion, there are not enough super annuated old hippies and hippettes pining for the glory days of Justin's Daddy Pierre when it was all sex and drugs and rock and roll to carry Nate to victory. Mr Kelway will almost certainly continue to represent B-EY in the House of Commons.
15 09 09 Dr.Bear
Liberal support is on the rise in Toronto at the expense of the NDP. Much to my surprise, threehundredeight is suggesting this riding will now marginally go Liberal. I say it is now TCTC.
15 09 07 Mark
Ostracized pick-up artist Dmitri the Lover (aka James Sears) is running as an independent in the Beaches? This went from a snooze to the most hilarious riding in Canada. I can't wait to see his platform.
15 09 06 Michelle C.
Yesterday Dr. James Sears made the ballot as an Independent candidate in Beaches-East York. He edits the local community paper 'Your Ward News'. On Thursday we received the September issue, which featured a nasty attack piece against Mulcair and Kellway, basically calling them criminals, and offering proof of such. The information is very, very damaging and went out to 48,000 homes in the area, including mine. Dr. Sears also says that the Liberals are surging past the NDP. That being said, now that Dr. Sears has thrown his hat into the ring, he will likely step up the attacks against Kellway and Mulcair and try to take the NDP down, which will guarantee a Liberal win. He Tweeted that he has pledged donations totalling $75,000, and if that is the case, he can sustain a pretty substantial negative ad campaign. This race is far from an NDP win.
15 08 17 jeff316
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith looks and reads like he was purchased out of a politicians-for-hire catalog, from his lawyer credentials and meaningless local anecdotes right down to his unmemorable bio and not-young-but-not-old looks. Meanwhile, Kellway is the epitome of the current Beaches East-York - almost middle-aged, affluent, white collar, professional, community-focused, slightly green, family-oriented. He is much more integrated into the local community than many outside onlookers realize. Former NDP MPP Michael Prue, a holder-over from the more hardscrabble, working class East York of auld, only just barely lost in 2014 - and that was with a multitude of factors going against him. It will take a *significant rise* in national Liberal momentum to knock Kellway off.
15 08 03 Docere
Updating my prediction. This will stay NDP. Mulcair has a strong appeal to educated urban progressives and the NDP is polling ahead of the Liberals nationally. Kellway should have no problem hanging on.
15 07 20 Dr Bear
Time for a complete 180 on my earlier post. The NDP are in a solid position now will hold on to(and gain) their Toronto seats.
15 07 03 Bruce Stewart
Since his election in 2011, NDP MP Matthew Kellway has assiduously worked this riding. The crowding at public events (Canada Day parade, reopening of the Crescent Town Club, Fairmont Public Market, etc.) especially when the Liberals are also present indicates to me that he has not only the momentum but the numbers heading down to election day. I see this as an NDP HOLD, probably with an increased plurality over 2011.
15 07 02 Matt
I'm changing my prediction from Too Close to Call to NDP. The Liberals have taken a battering in the last few months, particularly in the Toronto area. It's hard to imagine that one year ago the NDP's provincial counterparts were fighting for their political lives, and in the case of Michael Prue, many went down with Horwath's populist ship. The Liberal candidate Erskine-Smith is certainly impressive - an Oxford grad and Bay Street lawyer with deep roots in the Beaches. Still, the national numbers are working against his favour. I also wonder if the Liberal party brass will focus their efforts on higher profile ridings with Trudeau-anointed 'cabinet-ministers-in-waiting,' like Bill Blair in Scarborough-Southwest, Bill Morneau in Toronto Centre and Chrystia Freeland in University-Rosedale - especially with the latter two candidates facing unexpectedly strong challenges.
15 07 01 HFoster
As a result of recent polling saying Mulcair's NDP may form government, it is very hard for me to see the NDP lose this seat. There was some controversy and infighting for the Liberal nomination, but I do not think it will hurt the Liberals too much in Beaches-East York, but it will make the climb to defeat Kellway harder.
15 06 06 Mr. Dave
Liberal support is falling rapidly across Canada, as well as in Ontario, while NDP support is rising.
Ridings like this one will stay in the NDP fold.
NDP hold.
15 06 06 ME
Liberal support has dropped to third place and another orange wave is forming...Easy hold for the NDP
15 05 16 seasaw
This should be a fairly easy pick up for the Liberals. This riding went NDP mainly due to the Orange Wave. A second Orange Wave is highly unlikely, and this is not a riding that the Tories have any chance in. So, unless there's a major drop in Liberal support ( highly unlikely ), this will be a Liberal pick up.
15 05 05 R.O.
This is a riding that should easily stay ndp but a place the liberals could become more competitive depending on what happens. It's a riding that really should be an ndp stronghold but somehow went to provincial liberals last year. But I still feel ndp has the advantage here for the time being as they now have an incumbent mp and liberals have a new candidate as long time mp Maria Minna not running.
15 05 01 Docere
Agree that Beaches-East York is too close to call for now. Prue was taken down by an ONDP campaign that didn't resonate in Toronto. Mulcair's more urban, intellectual appeal should resonate better here. This is the most likely of the 2011 pickups for the NDP to hold, but certainly in a big enough swing to the Liberals they can take this back.
15 04 30 Gillian
Beaches-East York is a natural NDP that has been dominated by the NDP both federally and provincially. With an unknown Liberal candidate and an NDP incumbent, this riding will stay NDP.
15 04 10 Stevo
Completely agree with Noam. You would think that people who follow politics closely enough to comment on this website would not fall into the trap of believing that provincial results are a strong indicator of federal results, or vice versa. That's not to say there's never a correlation (look at Thornhill, as a example of provincial and federal trends being very close, if perhaps not lockstep) but generally speaking, the electoral dynamics are very different. I also want to respond to the 'Mulcair is no Jack' argument. In my opinion, Mulcair will be surprise to the upside. I believe his quiet, intellectual, methodical style (gee, which successful Canadian politician does that remind you of??) will appeal much more to middle-of-the-road Canadians than did Jack Layton. The Tories and Liberals underestimate Mulcair at their own risk. Completely unrealistic to call Beaches East-York as a Liberal pickup at this point.
15 04 12 A.S.
Sure, he may have entered the 2011 election with less 'profile' than prior contenders like Churley, Tabuns, Mel Watkins etc; but in practice, Kellway has been more like the sleeper surprise of the NDP's Toronto caucus--and far from a no-name backbench type, he actually *does* have opposition-critic status (urban affairs). Nor would I call 41.64% vs a six-term incumbent's 30.75% a 'relatively slim margin'--it's more like voters were hankering for an excuse to turf Minna for ages, and finally found it--and as mentioned, the 'Prue surprise' had more to do with Team Horwath's urban tin ear vs Wynne's 'Premier of Toronto' magnetism. It's not that I'd call Kellway 'safe'; but versus whatever Trudeaumania II promises, I'd deem him more middling than super-high on the NDP endangerment scale. A credible 'young, charismatic' Liberal opponent, maybe; yet I still can't help getting a case of the overzealous-operative-plumping 'Mike Savages' through this site...
15 04 05 Noam Gold-Utting
This is definitely a too close to call. People using the provincial result to predict for this federal campaign are making a big mistake. Michael Prue didn't lose this seat; Andrea Horwath sacrificed it. Andrea sacrificed the provincial party's Toronto base to try and gain some support in the 905. In addition Kathleen Wynne is 10 times the politician Justin Trudeau is and that will continue to be clear as we get closer to October and Trudeau makes more mistakes. In addition Tom Mulcair is a far better politician than Andrea Horwath and he is working hard on maintaining support in Toronto. Don't count the NDP out of this yet; this is a very different campaign to the 2014 provincial one.
15 03 30 Jack Cox
Michael Prue got beaten in this riding provincially, and we are talking about a well-loved respected politician who lost to a guy who really had no profile at all. Matthew Kellway is for all intents and purposes nowhere near the status of Michael Prue, this guy is a backbencher and the Liberal Candidate Nate Erskine-Smith started his nomination campaign a good year before he got nominated and is an incredibly charismatic, hard-working campaigner. This one will go red.
15 03 30 A Williams
Really Jason? Every single poll projection done so far not only shows LPC winning, but the odds of LPC winning are sitting comfortably between 73-78%. This includes the most recent Abacus/Ekos polls that weren't flattering for the Liberal Party. This shouldn't be TCTC at all, it's clearly in the Liberal column.
The Liberals have nominated a really young, dynamic, local candidate who will clean Kellway's clock.
15 03 29 Jason
New Democrat hold. Mulcair is tacking to the left these days to appeal to ridings such as this one. Mulcair's politics work better in urban Toronto than Horwath's.
NDP probably won't gain any new seats in Toronto, but they are favoured to ridings such as this one.
15 03 28 monkey
While I would give the Liberals the edge at the moment, the NDP has always been quite strong here so until we get closer to the election its too early to tell. Like most Toronto lakeshore ridings between Humber River and Victoria Park road it's more of an anti-Conservative riding than NDP or Liberal, so the progressive vote will likely swing behind whichever party is seen as most likely to defeat the Tories. At this point that looks like the Liberals, but its still too early to tell.
15 03 27 A Roberts
There's no way that this is even TCTC. Minna was despised in the Beaches in 2011 and she's gone. Even being right beside Tor-Dan, the NDP won BEY by a relatively slim margin for the Orange Crush.
Definitely LPC pickup, especially since Kellway is a no-name MP.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
This seat was strong NDP for years thanks to their former leader, but i'll repeat this many times while going through 338 ridings. Mulcair is not Jack. Wynne managed to take this riding last year. Trudeau will follow.
15 03 25 B DeLong
The Liberals are running a young, charismatic, lawyer who is sure to contrast Kellway's dull style. Coupled with 308's projection numbers for most of Toronto, I don't see how Kellway keeps his seat.
15 03 23 ML
Kellway was one of 6 new NDP MPs elected in Toronto following the Liberal collapse in 2011. Kellway's win was seen as somewhat of a surprise, especially since the NDP ran much higher profile Marilyn Churley in 2006 and 2008 unsuccessfully. Despite the loss in 2011 the Liberals have always had a strong base in the riding - see former MP Maria Minna's eighteen year reign or last year's provincial election when a relatively unknown lobbyist Arthur Potts unseated NDP veteran Michael Prue. This will be a purely NDP vs. Liberal race with the Conservatives and Greens on the the outside looking in.
15 03 22 Dr. Bear
Calling this an NDP hold is astoundingly premature. NDP support has collapsed in much of Ontario back to it's pre-orange wave levels; back when this was solidly in the Liberal column. This riding has been less successful for the NDP federally than Trinity-Spadina, and look how that turned out in the byelection (granted Vaughan's candidacy boosted Liberal support). Added that this riding dumped their NDP incumbent provincially for the Liberals, at the very least a TCTC label is warranted. Threehundredeight is currently suggesting this riding will vote 43% liberal to 30% NDP (with a 77% confidence level).
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
Jack Layton lived next door in Toronto-Danforth. This is an ABC riding and will elect a Green long before it will ever elect a Conservative.
The warm glow of the Toronto-centric Layton NDP will continue in 2015. Calling this an NDP hold especially as, having lost the Mayoral election, the NDP organization will be very diligent in fighting for Toronto seats.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster