Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Prediction Changed
2015-10-14 12:40:24

Constituency Profile


Johnstone, Alex

Ormond, Peter

Samuel, Vincent

Tassi, Filomena

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 4080.77%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (155/234 polls, 66.22% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Sweet

   Hamilton Centre
   (55/234 polls, 22.28% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

David Christopherson

   Hamilton Mountain
   (24/234 polls, 11.50% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Chris Charlton


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15 10 14 C.E.
A poll conducted by Mainstreet research for the CBC place the Liberals a long way ahead. https://www.friends.ca/files/PDF/Mainstreet-Report-15oct13.pdf
Apparently the Liberal Tassi is attracting both the Ancaster and Dundas voters who had left the Liberals to back Sweet in recent elections as well as the voters who had left the Liberals to vote NDP on the west mountain.
15 10 13 VR
The Auschwitz controversy counts here. At the beginning of the election I could have gone either way, Liberal or NDP, just anything but the Conservatives. I liked Mulcair and even though a long time Liberal, considered a change to NDP. The Auschwitz comment sunk it for me. The original bad joke about the posts could have been forgiven, but the comments that she had never heard of Auschwitz were really problematic. It made Alex Johnstone either clueless despite her degrees, or a dishonest careerist (the more likely scenario), not someone you want representing you in Ottawa. Itshowed that she needed a period of reflection on her maturity and honesty.
15 10 13 SC
Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting finds the Liberals crushing the other parties, 50 LPC vs. 27 CPC among decided voters; 43 LPC, 24 CPC amongst all voters, with 13% undecided.
15 10 13 Marco Ricci
B P, it's interesting that you mention that the Liberal candidate here has been pro-life & against gay marriage in the past, because that is the case for the NDP candidate in Scarborough-Rouge River.
As far as I can tell, Tassi has said that she agrees with Justin Trudeau that Liberal MP's have to support being pro-choice & being pro-gay marriage.
I gather that's what the NDP candidate in Scarborough-Rouge Park is claiming as well. That although he is against gay marriage and abortion he will respect the party line if it comes to a vote in the House.
So I'm not sure whether this is an issue for most progressive voters since the NDP & the Liberals are both in this situation.
As for this riding, I agree that people have to be cautious to write anyone off, but most indications seem to be that the NDP is running 3rd here. CTV's Robert Fife even reported last night that the NDP vote is 'collapsing' in Ontario. So while it's possible in theory for the NDP to win here, it will be harder than it was at the start of the campaign.
This riding appears to be leaning Liberal now, but it's also possible the Conservatives could narrowly win it.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Stick a fork in this one. Liberal pickup.
15 10 13 South Islander
Mainstreet poll taken October 8 has the Liberals way ahead of the Tories and NDP 50/27/16 among decided and leaning, with not enough undecideds to make up the difference.
15 10 14 JC
This one is over and Filomena Tassi is going to Ottawa Mainstreet Research poll shows
50-Liberal Party
27-Conservative Party
15 10 10 V
I can see why people who don't live in the riding might make the case that Alex is unelectable, but the evidence does not support that. ABC voters should look to their neighbours and Alex is still ahead in most regions. Tassi has low support in most parts of the riding (Dundas in particular, where I'm from, but more support in Ainslie Wood). I agree, she is a more conservative liberal and that might be a problem for many who are turned off by her social conservative views. But Tassi has a number of advantages now and could pull an upset. Alex had the advantage coming in as the candidate for the more present party in the riding and her campaign was by far the most energized and effective. (That energy settled down after the summer.) Alex has the backing of multiple labour groups and I was surprised by the amount of orange in Ancaster! It shows by how well her support is holding despite controversy. I also agree that her debate performance was impressive. I was considering Tassi but in the end, I'm just not convinced. One issue I had was how uninformed Tassi was about local issues.
15 10 11 G S
Alex Johnstone is still the candidate with the strongest presence in Dundas and even Ancaster. Lots of support for her from community leaders and labour. Some are claiming that she's unelectable and a few opponents are trying to milk the controversy, but it's really not changing a lot of minds... Probably because of how disproportionate the outrage is compared to what she said and how it's being used for political leverage. Even as someone with Jewish ancestry, I wasn't as deeply offended as some expected. Alex personally apologized to me and it was really appreciated. The fact that she still has a chance just shows how strong and resilient Alex is as a candidate. I attribute it to her strong campaign. This is a riding that Leadnow has trouble with because riding surveys (as recent as a week ago) show Alex leading, but election projections based on 2011 results would suggest that the Liberals are ahead. ABC voters should talk to their neighbours to figure out who to vote for. I don't actually know who is ahead, but I predict that all the hard work will pay off for Alex. She has my vote.
15 10 08 John S.
Johnstone has made herself unelectable with her Auschwitz comments. Given that she cannot win, the ABC contingent will align behind Tassi.
Although I respect him for running, I can't understand why Samuel's military history of senior rank in army of Pakistani dictator General Zia has not been raised as an issue. Pakistan is not known for human rights. He has not been effective at communicating what he has to offer - so I don't see any room for growth in the CPC vote count.
The key task for Tassi now will be to get out the vote.
15 10 07 jeff316
With Johnstone imploding, the left-center left-center coalition solidifies and Tassi wins.
15 10 08 B P
I'm a progressive voter who was considering Liberal before the NDP rise and nominations, but I switched over to supporting Alex once the summer came around and I saw the hard work that she put into this campaign. I was impressed by her performance in the debates, especially her knowledge and dedication to fighting for very local issues. Tassi is a modest candidate and she does strike me as a more conservative liberal, which might be a better fit for certain parts of this riding. Yes, she is pro-life and was against same sex marriage, but she's also trying to appeal to more conservative voters on matters of the economy. She's not as outspoken as a candidate or even enthusiastic about her own Liberal plan. It rubs me the wrong way when someone tries to campaign as both a conservative and a progressive, depending on the audience. I've decided to take the bite and vote for Alex.
15 10 03 seasaw
Alex Johnston, just took herself out of this race with her comment. Tassi was once a Liberal candidate in '95, and she was weak and did not do very well in that election, she doesn't strike like the type who can attract a lot of soft voters, as a result of vote split, a close CPC win.
15 10 01 Dr. Bear
After the hair-brained comments made by Johnstone, I can not see non-partisan progressive voters supporting her. In conversation with a number of locals last weekend (all of whom live in neighboring ridings), they mentioned that she wasn't fantastic as a school trustee. If this sentiment is accurate and wide-spread, then you be certain that the soft NDP support will go red.
15 09 23 Marco Ricci
Seat projections by Eric Grenier & Bryan Breguet have been showing this as a 3-way race.
However, with the controversy today over the NDP's Alex Johnstone making penis jokes & admitting she had never heard of Auschwitz, she has probably taken herself out of the running here:
This may now be just a 2-way race between the Liberals & Conservatives.
15 09 23 Robert Kernoghan
This is formerly the seat of Russ Powers. A highly capable MP - now local councillor and only run out of Ottawa by virtue of the last CPC upswing, anti-campaign life coalition - who ran large anti-abortion and anti-same sex marriage pieces against the incumbent. In a marginal seat this cost a highly visable, activist MP relaced by someone perfectly in tune with the neo-con, traditionally reformist, evangelical side of the conservatives.
While I personally am upset about this (as a former resident) the newly configured area could go con or liberal. If liberal we are talking ministerial capacity if con another backbencher to the crowd. If you are watching Hamilton area ridings this one is the nailbiter.
15 09 24 Jeff S
Johnstone never heard of Auschwitz? http://www.thespec.com/news-story/5927450-hamilton-ndp-s-alex-johnstone-didn-t-know-what-auschwitz-was/
Won't be the NDP winning this one.
15 09 23 A very concerned voter
I dont know if I should be shocked, because the NDP candidate doesnt know what Auschwitz is or be outraged because she thinks we are stupid enough to believe her lie that she doesnt know what Auschwitz.
I believe this has changed the game in this riding.
15 09 23 Monkey Cheese
308 is showing this riding as a 61% chance of going Liberal and this was before the NDP candidate's controversial joke about Auschwitz. I think that will hurt her chances and will likely cause some of the Lib-NDP swing voters to go Liberal. If Dr. Bear's post is correct about Tassi signs outnumbering the other candidates, then she should have this one in the bag unless Liberal support collapses and I don't think it will.
Geo, sex education is a provincial issue, not a federal one. The only people who are going to be upset about it are social conservative parents who would never vote for anybody but the Conservatives in the first place.
15 09 20 Nick M.
Dave Lang observation really nailed it. It's like the GTA (closer to Torotno part.). when provincially the Libs or CPC go up by 10 points, the GTA will swing 20'points.
This riding I have no clue. No clue if it'll be a three split, or just two parties, and which two? Or if someone will win by a landslide. (That could only be the CPC for landslide)
Only an insider who has knowledge of the campaigns will I believe.
15 09 15 Dr.Bear
Report from the ground: Tassi signs out number anyone else's in Westdale. Most other candidate seem to have no visible support.
15 09 14 Geo
I think this will be a close one but the Ontario sex ed curriculum might give Conservative gain
15 09 09 John S.
There is a die hard Conservative contingent in this riding - principally in Ancaster. However given the recent string of scandals, creative use of coffee mugs and phone calls, the tone deaf demeanor of Chris Alexander with respect to the Syrian crisis in a riding which has a substantial immigrant component - some conservatives have swung their vote to the Liberals. This riding will probably vote for Tassi but Johnstone can get back in if she starts knocking on doors. She's not well known and has room to grow, whereas Tassi is well known and is limited in her upside. The big knock on Tassi is her outspoken Pro-Life stance. Samuel doesn't stand a chance against these two well known candidates. He's a decent candidate, and being an immigrant should help, but the appearance so far is that his intended purpose (should he get in) would be to simply vote for Harper's initiatives without much influence in helping the riding. The voters want change not only in government, but in the type of representative that takes their views to Ottawa (instead of the other way around,as it has been for the past 8 years)
15 09 05 Marco Ricci
Dave Lang, over the past 2 weeks, NDP support has dropped in Ontario, and the Liberals have overtaken the NDP in the province now. EKOS & Leger both showed Liberal gains and NDP decline in Ontario this week, and EKOS said yesterday that some progressive voters are now moving back to the Liberals.
308 now shows this riding as a 56% chance of going Liberal: (September 4, 2015)
Now obviously that is just a projection and can change again. Because of the Liberal weakness in this area in recent elections there will need to be more evidence over the next month before a Liberal call can be made here.
But it is now potentially a more competitive race again.
15 09 05 CK
Almost no one in this riding will vote Conservative. It will be a race between the Liberals and the NDP. But there are *a lot* of physicians living in this riding who remember the provincial NDP fiasco of the early 90's and how that affected their day-to-day work. There are also many wealthy, moderate Catholics who won't mind voting for Filomena Tassi. I predict the Liberals will win by a hair.
15 08 20 Dave Lang
I have to disagree with jeff316 on the condition of the vote split for this riding.
In southern ontario, there are a lot of center-right voters that used to go for the Progressive Conservatives or the Liberals. When they merged with the Reform/Alliance parties they ended up with the far right Harper. During the 2011 campaign, Ignatieff was just so unlikeable that a lot of these voters flocked to the conservatives as their best option (with the NDP being way too left)
The current polls on 308 show this trend.
NDP 34% LIB 30% CPC 29%
This shows an interesting turn of events with over 60% of voters on the left. Clearly Trudeau is pulling the center-right back under the liberal banner, letting the NDP stay on top.
15 08 14 jeff316
One of the oddities of this part of Ontario is that industrial-cum-hipster Hamilton, champagne socialist Westdale and hippy-dippy Dundas are ringed by Ontario's most firebrand Bible Belt. Sweet mined the latter crowd to power, pandered to them for his first term, and subsequently toned down his religious rhetoric - successfully moderating his image and broadening his base. The Conservatives are beatable here, but need a united center-right/center/center-left coalition. The Liberals get this - hence fielding an anti-choice, religious candidate who, if she hadn't been Italo-Canadese from 'Amiltone, would likely be a card-carrying Tory. But sometimes the best-laid plans are foiled. The NDP, running an above average candidate and local school trustee, will take just enough votes for the Conservatives to split the difference.
15 08 10 John S.
In the last election there were more than a few factors working for the Conservatives:
1) Michael Ignatieff was not liked by 'Liberal' friendly voters. They either sat on their hands or voted for Conservative or NDP.
2) Westdale went NDP and shifted very late in the campaign, leaving the Liberals in 3rd place.
3) The rural vote was still very upset about the gun registry.
This election both Trudeau and Mulcair are much more likeable and have better standing than Ignatieff who was parachuted in. The NDP is seen as a viable contender based on their performance in the House, and the presence of TM. Because TM and JT are both seen as viable alternatives to the CPC, I think we will see a shift towards the end of the campaign towards whoever can defeat the Conservative candidate. But it will be a race to the wire.
15 08 03 George S
I am a former Liberal with an aunt who ran for the Liberals back in the 90s and the Liberals have screwed their chance of winning this riding. First they choose the most unpopular Liberal candidate, especially unpopular among students. As a McMaster student, I can tell you that everyone I know in the area has committed to voting NDP, especially after C-51, which was more of the last straw. The Liberals are very unpopular provincially and federally right now. Add in the NDP voting Hamilton Mountain area, you have enough to swing this to the NDP.
15 07 13 Jake Collins
I find it funny how all of the Liberal posters believe that the Liberal candidate will win, because all the Mountain NDP support will vote strategically. Someone should point out that the NDP is the official opposition, and leading in the polls. There is a strategic vote argument here, but I'm not sure it is a pro-liberal one.
The big question in this local election is whether or not the Liberal progressives of Westdale, and Dundas will be comfortable voting for Filomena Tassi -- a well documented social conservative with a record against abortion rights, and gay rights.
15 07 12 Mr. Dave
The NDP has seen a large up-turn in support in Ontario since the Alberta election, and with the increase in NDP support provincially in southern Ontario during the 2014 provincial election, ridings like H.W.A.D. are now in play for the NDP federally.
Add into the mix the retirement of Conservative David Sweet making this an 'open' seat, plus the familiarity of NDP candidate Alex Johnstone from the provincial election, and it's looking like there could be a sweep for the NDP of all the Hamilton ridings.
15 06 06 A.S.
Lest we forget, this is the seat where son-of-Steve Zach Paikin ran for (and then withdrew himself from) the Liberal nomination--and, why not; as an open-seat amalgam of disparate escarpment-clinging urban-suburban riding parts with McMaster in the middle and a certain Lincoln Alexander Red Tory undercurrent, it's probably the third-place Liberals' sexiest Hamilton target (Bob Bratina in the east notwithstanding). No Paikin = less Liberal spotlight. No David Sweet = less Con spotlight. And the NDP's had an odd recent history of underperformance in the former ADFW (skewed, provincially, perhaps by Ted McMeekin's incumbency--a dynamic which even Johnstone couldn't dent provincially), while the inherited NDP-seat fragments aren't the best such parts in either former seat--though if Justin's truly faltering on behalf of Mulcair, 'Hamiltonism' might still be enough to extra-validate the NDP option. *Lots* of mutually-contradictory three-way oxygen here...
15 05 27 RD
HWDSB Alex Johnstone had annnounced she will be seeking the NDP nomination and if nominated she'll be the most experienced candidate running in this riding. While she was unsuccessful in the provincial election last year that was on substantially different riding boundaries and in the context of a lackluster provincial NDP campaign. With the federal NDP surging she stands a strong chance of completing an orange sweep of urban Hamilton this fall.
15 04 10 RC
Despite how the notional results look, I think it would take a very deep split between the Liberals and the NDP for this riding to go Tory this time. As other posters have noted, the most conservative part of the former Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale has been carved out (and MP David Sweet has followed it), leaving behind a fairly centre-to-centre-left riding (with the exception of Ancaster) with no Tory incumbent and a fairly strong Liberal candidate. Unless the NDP nominates a star, I think you'll see a lot of the NDP voters in the newly-added Mountain part of the riding switch to the Liberals to stop the Tories from winning.
15 03 30 JC
David Sweet moved over to the Flamborough-Glanbrook riding for a reason. Because it's much safer. Filomena Tassi is a good fit for this riding and should win.
15 03 28 monkey
I would give the Liberals the edge at the moment as they usually win in Dundas while Ancaster is more favourable to the Tories, but that is partly because the Tories run up big margins in the rural portion on the south which is now part of Flamborough-Glanbrook whereas the suburban portions to the north are more competitive. The real wild card is will the NDP vote hold in the Hamilton part or will many strategically vote Liberal to dump the Tories. If the NDP vote holds up in the Hamilton part, then the Tories have a good chance at holding this.
15 03 28 Stevo
With redistricting leaving ultra-Conservative Flamborough out of the picture, I can't see how the Tories have a shot here. Ancaster may lean Conservative but Trudeau's Liberals, assuming a recovery from 2011's nadir, should easily be able to pick up plenty of those voters. The NDP, meanwhile, reached its pinnacle of Hamilton representation in 2011 and can only decline from here. Liberal pick-up, in my opinion.
15 03 24 ML
I agree with Craig that this will be an interesting riding to watch. The Liberals traditionally do well in Dundas and Westdale, the Conservatives in Ancaster, and the NDP on the west mountain. I wonder what role the controversy over the Liberal candidate's past pro-life stance on abortion will play in the highly educated-professional pockets of Westdale and Dundas. Alternatively, do west mountain voters who have historically had an NDP MP and MPP stick with the NDP or vote for the 'lesser of two evils?'
15 03 19 Craig Hubley
With the redistribution this one is very hard to call. It looks good for Conservatives on 2011 numbers, but factor in the Trudeau popularity, the vast influx of NDP votes from Hamilton Centre that may well shift Liberal against Harper, and the confusion of a quite differently organizing riding, and this one is anyone's game.
Filomena Tassi for the Liberals, Vincent Samuel for the Conservatives, are both uninspiring candidates. I'll shift to NDP if they nominate a star but otherwise I think this remains too close to call until election night.

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