Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:31:14

Constituency Profile


Raney, Ann

Rizzo, Natalie

Schulte, Deb

Toubis, Konstantin

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 1270.33%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (107/149 polls, 82.96% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Julian Fantino

   Oak Ridges-Markham
   (42/149 polls, 17.04% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Paul Calandra


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15 10 15 Spx
Momentum is definitely on the Liberal side in the end of the race. Time for some final calls. I thought this one would be tight, but actually it this point I think it will go Liberal with a bigger margin. Final call now for the Liberals.
15 10 12 R.O.
This is a tough riding to predict and likely will depend on how final week of election turns out. Being open and no incumbent there isn't a clear advantage for either party. this area of Ontario looked very good for conservatives a week or so ago until liberals started to improve in the polls but its still the type of riding that is likely to be close . the ndp aren't much of a factor here so either Toubis or Schulte will take this riding depending on what happens.
15 10 10 Spx
At this point I'd say the Liberals are slightly ahead in this riding but it's probably going to be a very tight race with only 1 or 2% difference. TCTC, for now.
15 10 08 Marco Ricci
Vaughan Mayor Maurizio Bevilacqua officially endorsed Liberal candidate Deb Schulte this week.
It will be interesting to see if this gives her a boost of a few points in what could be a close race. Endorsements aren't usually huge game changers, but can sometimes be a minor boost.
15 09 12 Adeline96
Toubis has gotten in trouble once again, this time about Facebook posts. A person like this should not be serving in our House of Commons, and if the people of King-Vaughan agree, they will be parking their votes elsewhere.
15 09 08 R.O.
The too close to call change isn't unreasonable for 2 reasons . 1. This is a new riding and has not existed in its exact boundaries before so its difficult to determine how election will play out here . 2 its an open riding and there is no incumbent and both main candidates have not run as a federal candidate before. Konstantin Toubis is a new candidate for the cpc and new to politics in York Region . liberal candidate Deborah Schulte has some municipal experience. But we must also keep in mind had it existed in 2011 it would of went conservative by a comfortable margin. But this is a different election and its likely to be closer so I'll wait to see how campaign plays out here .
15 08 03 Docere
When the Liberals were polling well in Ontario, this was definitely a winnable seat. However with the current polling numbers, the Liberals aren't in a position to win very many seats in York Region. Conservative hold.
15 08 03 A.S.
Oddly, any 'progressive forceness' to Schulte might carry more traction in the 'bluer' parts of the seat (Kleinburg, King Township), where the politics of anti-development and environmental protection have been stronger--meanwhile, another node of outsized Con strength worth mentioning is the growing Jewish exurbs bordering onto Richmond Hill. But yes, the key to the Liberals' potential success remains Maple; and while it may not be specifically apropos to Schulte-type 'progressivism', it's probably been the most 'NDP-esque' node in Vaughan (well, at least insofar as the Dippers can poll much of the time in high teens rather than low teens or single digits). In sum: another one of those 905 seats which isn't necessarily as 'safe Con' as pundits rawly projecting from 2011's numbers think.
15 08 03 Poli Predictor
I think the Liberals will beat Julian Fantino in this riding. As they too have a strong Italian candidate with name recognition in Francesco Sorbara who is popular here. Yes, it will be close, but Sorbara will just knock off Fantino
15 08 01 Jason
Not sure what Prime Predictor is getting at.
The Liberals are seen as the progressive party in the 905. Deb Schulte has been a progressive force in council stopping some development along Pine Valley Drive and Rutherford Road in the basis of environmental protection.
King-Vaughan is not a Conservative stronghold. The largest community here Maple (probably accounts for 70% of the riding) leans Liberal, while the smaller communities such as Klienburg, Schomberg, Nobleton and King City are more Tory friendly.
The 30 point nominal lead in 2011 was due to the popularity of Fantino and unpopularity of Ignatieff. Neither are playing a role in this riding in 2015. The provincial Liberals in 2014 won this area by 27 point margin.
Either way it will be a close one, but I would say the Liberals will take it unless they continue to fall.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
While the CPC saw its lesser of two nomination candidates nominated, the LPC also don't have a great candidate. Schulte has some name recognition, sure, but she lost her own council seat pretty badly, and a lot of her council seat falls in Vaughan-Woodbridge anyway. Also, if you know this riding, the previous predictor here saying that 'progressives adore her', sounds ridiculous. Even if this were true, there is no relevant progressive force in this riding. I'd even say it doesn't exist. Both parties missed out on taking the advantage by nominating an Italian.
Anyway, nothing significant to reverse a 30 point gap here. It'll go CPC.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
This will be a Liberal win. LPC's Deb Schulte has been a City councillor in the area for many years. The CPC's Toubis has been accused of intimidating and harassing other Conservative nomination candidates during the nomination battle. Toubis will have to mend bridges with his fellow Conservatives before he has a shot at this seat.
15 03 28 monkey
While not quite ready to call this, it does include King which despite being part of the GTA is still fairly rural and this should go Tory. Vaughan is a bit more difficult as it has a large Italian community who traditionally went strongly Liberal but being centre-right seems to swing quite heavily behind one or the other party and at this point its hard to say which one they will swing heavily behind.
15 03 22 Mrz
While Lib candidate Deb Schulte may have name recognition, the riding will go Conservative. Numbers show
15 03 19 Jason
The Liberals should be able to pick this one up. Polls show the Liberals and Tories are neck to neck in Ontario and the '905'. Most of electorate in this riding resides in Maple which leans more toward the Liberals. The Tories are stronger in Kleinburg, Nobleton and King City.
Former regional councillor Deb Schulte is running for the Liberals, while the Tories have nominated a real estate agent Konstantin Toubis. Neither candidate could be billed as a star candidate, however Schulte has more recognition and is adored by progressives.

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