Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton Centre

Prediction Changed
2015-10-19 01:25:02

Constituency Profile


Boissonnault, Randy

Cumming, James

McGowan, Gil

Parker, David

Stauffer, Steven

Yaki, Kat

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 2970.69%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Edmonton Centre
   (213/221 polls, 96.62% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Laurie Hawn

   Edmonton-Spruce Grove
   (8/221 polls, 3.38% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Rona Ambrose


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15 10 17 JCD
New poll out shows that Liberals and Conservatives are tied. My original projection is for Liberal. At this point, it is too close to call but it is either a Liberal or Conservative win.
15 10 17 South Islander
Liberals are trending upwards in Alberta and have reached about 30%. At those levels and with a concentration of support int he cities, they are going to have to win a few seats in Edmonton and Calgary. They seem to be having a late surge here. This should be one of them.
15 10 17 Marco Ricci
I think there may be a Liberal-NDP vote split here that allows the Conservatives to edge in, but there will be no way to know until Election Night.
15 10 17 Tes
Jumping the gun on the NDP call! New ThinkHQ poll: CPC 33, LPC 30, NDP 22! The NDP is out of contention here, even with the margin of error in the poll applied. This race is between the LPC and CPC.
15 10 14 Craig Hubley
Still not calling it, but noting that Edmonton AB, like Hamilton ON or Fredericton NB or Vancouver BC, has ridings with both Liberal and NDP threats to Cons immediately adjacent, and even (Guelph, Fredericton, Victoria) some Green swap opportunities. So one live event gathering up Edmonton voters for a mass vote swap, like the one taking place in Vancouver on Thursday, could actually swing this. Will Edmonton stay an NDP fortress with Cons always taking the suburbs, or is there room for a Liberal? Probably only by vote swapping can the two coexist for long.
15 10 13 SC
New Mainstreet poll for the Friends of Canadian Broadcasting shows an NDP lead: 38 NDP, 31 CPC, 27 LPC among decided voters; 35 NDP, 29 CPC, 24 LPC among all voters (10% undecided).
This has been mainly discussed as a potential Liberal win, but if this is right it will be another NDP gain.
15 10 14 Jeff S
Think the NDP will grab this one as the LPC may have started taking some votes from the CPC.
15 10 14 JC
Mainstreet Research Poll from October 8 shows this
Gil McGowan should win this but don't be surprised if this last minute liberal surge helps Boissonault.
15 10 13
Mainstreet poll done for 'Friends of CBC' on October 8th:
ALL VOTERS: NDP 35% Cons 29% Libs 24% Green 2% Undecided 10%
Decided and Leaning only: NDP 38% Cons 31% Libs 27% Greens 3%
15 10 10 Azmina
Liberal candidate is gaining ground. Also the Con candidate did himself some damage a couple of days ago by suggesting to a university law professor that he could renounce his heritage if he was concerned about losing his or his children's Canadian citizenship in future. Apparently stunned the law professor. Also I understand there was a debate for all the candidates in the riding and the Con candidate was a no show. Seems there may actually be valid reasons for muzzling them ahead of the election, lol. Should be a no brainer with the liberals going up and NDP losing ground but I can't trust the Cons. Crossing my fingers. Got to get rid of Harper.
15 10 08 R.O.
This is a tough riding to predict as its one of the few alberta ridings to elect an mp who was not conservative in recent years. but was also a riding where former mp Laurie Hawn did well in when he was the conservative candidate but have new candidate James Cummings this election. however conservatives continue to poll well in alberta even after provincial election went ndp. Also features all new candidates for main parties other than green candidate who is now on his 5th run in this riding. It's a riding that might not be decided till the final few days
15 10 08 Kyle H
I said before that I thought Edmonton Centre would go NDP before it goes Liberal, and some riding specific polls backed me up on that; but things have changed since then, a lot. The NDP are no longer second in the province and seem to be trending towards a slightly-better-than-2011 result, between 16-20% province-wide. That means they could maybe jump up to 30% in Edmonton (from 25% in 2011) if things coalesce behind them here, but city specific polls have shown them *below* their 2011 numbers, and the Liberals ahead. Its just one poll of course, but if that is the reality on the ground, then I'll take back what I said - the Liberals can easily end up being the choice of change here.
15 10 07 Atlantic Election Guy
Well this just made things a little more interesting. The conservative candidate told a local voter to renounce his heritage and he would be protected from bill C-24. While these are process stories over the course of an election, these are not the types of stories that the CPC need in Edmonton where things are getting close. TCTC
15 10 08 Azmina
Laurie Hawn is not running this time so no incumbent. Prior to him, the riding used to be Anne McLellands for the Liberals. Early on looked like it would be close for LPC or NDP but lately NDP seems to be losing and the LPC and, much to my horror, the CPC have been gaining points. Right now it looks like the LPC is leading but the gap is closing. To make sure the CPC doesn't win I hope that supporters of ABC vote strategically. Early on also looked like two Edmonton risings might go to the Liberals but now this seems to be the only one. Edmonton Strathcona should remain NDP. Hopefully there is time for the Reformers, oops - the Cons - to shoot themselves in the foot big time between now and the 19th. Remember to get out and vote.
15 10 07 Monkey Cheese
Still not sure where this one goes, but the Conservative candidate James Cumming found himself in controversy when he told a University of Alberta law professor to renounce his heritage over his concerned over Bill C-24. I don't see how this will play well in a diverse city like Edmonton. I would say that the Liberals have the advantage here due to stronger polling numbers in Alberta, but there is still strong NDP and Conservative support in this riding.
15 10 05 Teddy Boragina
A new poll shows the Liberals leading the NDP in Edmonton federally.
While I still have my reservations, this is the 'top target' for the Liberals in Edmonton and given what's been going on all across the country, it's becoming more and more likely the Liberals will win here.
15 10 05 JR
Edmonton Support is 36% CPC, 26% Liberal, and 21% NDP.
Liberals are going to win a couple seats in Edmonton with those numbers and its Millwoods or Centre that are most likely.
15 10 04 John
I'm hearing anti-Trudeau attack ads on the radio sponsored by the official agent for the NDP!! This suggests to me that the NDP see the Liberals as the real threat to their support, not the Conservatives.
In a tight three-way race, this voter shift will support the Liberals more than the Conservatives--suggesting the Liberals might have a chance of taking this riding.
At the same time, the Conservatives have shifted from attack ads to issue based advertising. There are still two weeks to go until the election, and it looks like the Conservatives are setting the campaign agenda. If the campaign becomes more issue based, how fast can the NDP and the Liberals shift gears?
15 10 05 David
Pollster says Liberals could win first seats in Alberta since 2006
15 09 29 A.S.
When it comes to Alberta, there's always the possibility that evidence of Cons 'trailing' can be but a smokescreen--the Forum/Environics polls suggest as much. In any case, this is the Alberta seat where the respective party shares are most likely to echo their nationwide share (Bloc excluded, of course)
15 09 25 JCD
As the weeks progress, it is becoming very clear in this riding that the Tories are losing ground. I'm hearing that they're trailing in third place now (although this is based mostly on hearsay rather than any credible poll).
Most of the anti-Harper vote seem to be fairly flexible on whether to vote for Liberals or NDP mainly because neither candidate has been overly inspirational. I still get the sense that the Liberal candidate (Randy) is leading but there are a good number of NDP signs as well.
15 09 27 Lolitha
New poll by Forum for Edmonton Centre: Cons 40 NDP 30 Libs 27
15 09 23
Riding Specific poll by Environics (Sept 15/16): Cons 39 NDP 35 Liberal 22 Green 5.
15 09 19 Hood
I was at the Edmonton Centre forum last week which will be airing on Shaw Community TV across the region this coming week. There were roughly 90 people that attended the forum to see the Liberal, NDP and Libertarian candidates answer questions. The Green Party candidate accepted the invite but could not make the event because of illness. Conservative candidate James Cumming did not show up and got raked over the coals for it. Mr. Cumming is not well known and has not been garnering his own support so far in the riding. This will be a very close race between NDP Gil McGowan and Liberal Randy Boissonault. Two very strong candidates whom performed well at the debate, are going hard at the doors and on social media. All things being equal, I don't believe the Liberal flag will help Mr. Boissonault in Edmonton or anywhere in Alberta. Smart money is on NDP.
15 09 18 John
There are a lot of NDP signs popping up in the south west part of the riding right now. There are some Liberal signs, but not as many as either the NDP or the Conservatives. Now the caveat is the part of the riding I am seeing is a bit more affluent and may not be representative of the riding as a whole.
From what I am seeing in the sign war right now, this appears to be shaping up to be a two horse race--NDP and Conservative.
15 09 12 JCD
We're half-way through the election and it appears to be a fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives. I live in the riding and have talked to many in Crestwood, McQueen, Grovenor, North Glenora and Glenora so my experience does not necessarily reflect the entire riding. The biggest surprise to me is that the NDP have been largely invisible here. Their candidate is well-known provincially but has not made his local presence known. The Liberal candidate, on the other hand, has been pretty much everywhere and at every community event. He has name and face recognition. The Conservatives are a close second. Despite the 'Orange Crush/Wave' possibly happening in other areas, it does not appear to be happening here. It's a fight between Liberals and Conservatives at this point but 5 more weeks can change a lot.
15 09 10 Kyle H
John, are you sure you're reading that right? I've seen several people on EPP cite 'Globe and Mail election predictions,' which I can't find - but I think they're pointing to the G&M Election Forecaster, and their model there which you can run a new simulation for and get a new result each time - for example, I've seen simulations with nearly half of Alberta's seats going to another party. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place, but...
At any rate, as much as I'd love to pump up the Liberals here, I think its more likely to go NDP than to them; this riding has the feel of an NDP riding, and with Notley sweeping the city last time, its hard to see this central riding not flipping to them. But who knows, the Liberals could have a strong change based on history - TCTC is the right call for now I say.
15 09 06 Marco Ricci
The Globe & Mail are a conservative-leaning newspaper (endorsed Stephen Harper in the past 3 elections) and so one must keep that in mind, however it doesn't mean they are wrong in predicting a near Conservative sweep of Alberta. That could very well turn out to be the case.
308's projection for September 1, 2015 currently gives this riding a 69% chance of going Liberal, and so that should be taken into account, but that's probably based on the assumption that progressive voters will coalesce behind the Liberals here. If they split with the NDP, the Conservatives will retain this seat.
15 08 27 John
The Globe and Mail are election predictions, and I was reading those today.
For Alberta, they were predicting a near Conservative sweep. The two exceptions, which the Globe and Mail is predicting will go NDP, are Edmonton Strathcona and Edmonton Centre.
I won't go out on a limb and agree with the Globe and Mail prediction, but it should be noted in the discussion for the Edmonton Center riding.
15 08 25 CGD
This one goes Liberal. Tories are way down from the numbers they had in Alberta in the past. This is a Tory/Liberal battle in any close election. This time around should be Liberal given Tories are down quite a bit province-wide.
15 08 26 MR_Vince
3 way race (maybe a two race LPC-NPD and not by far behind, CPC. Cannot predict the winner for this one but i'll guess a Liberal win as most of the poll think they will.
15 08 23 John
I'm seeing more Liberal signs in the riding now. Not nearly as many as the Conservatives, but it is evidence the Liberals are organized. And there is still a long way to go before the polls close on election day.
15 08 24 BC predictor
While I think Calgary seats will be business as usual (CPC with large margin victories) Edmonton will be far more competitive. Past CPC sweeps and almost sweeps were the exception to what I feel should be a fairly NDP leaning city. The NDP will likely win more Edmonton seats than the tories and this is one of them.
15 08 16 John
This evening I was riding my bike thrgh the south west corner of this riding, and almost overnight Conservative lawn signs have popped up. There are a lot of them too.
Now the south west corner of the riding are generally older and more affluent. Also, most residences are detached homes. So I suspect the demographic here is one that is more likely to support the Conservatives. So what I saw tonight may not be representative of other parts of the riding.
But it does suggest the Conservative electoral machinery is starting to hum.
Oh, I should also mention I've seen a couple of Liberal lawn signs in the south west corner of the riding as well. While they have been there longer than the Conservative signs, there are far, far fewer of them.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan is seeking the NDP nod and says he will 'defend Alberta's energy industry in Ottawa' http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Alberta+Federation+Labour+president+vies+Edmonton+Centre/11204842/story.html
A nomination like this can lose more seats than it gains, especially if the AFL promotes raw bitumen export, which is basically a denialist position - you can't believe the world has to cut emissions and export any of this junk.
Look for the NDP to start to suffer the serious contradictions of being pro-Tar-Sands in Alberta but trying to hold non-denialist support in RoC.
15 08 04 John
Harper just made some waves criticizing tax hikes by the provincial NDP without passing a budget first. I think this could backfire.
To me, the NDP seems to be exercising some fiscal prudence by taking a closer look at the numbers, and how the policies they want to pursue will impact those numbers, before introducing a budget. I'm sure I am not the only Albertan who thinks that way.
That said, there is still a long campaign ahead with time to recover from early mistakes. So I don't think this misstep will cost the Conservatives this seat. But it won't make it safe from the Liberals or the NDP either.
This seat is in play.
15 08 02 John
Right now, the fly in the ointment for the NDP is that the writ is dropped and they don't yet appear to have a candidate for this riding yet. I just checked the NDP web site (August 2) and they don't have a candidate listed.
The other major parties--Conservative, Liberal and Green--all have candidates nominated. Some are already campaigning. I've even met the Liberal candidate when he was door knocking.
So if the NDP wants to take this riding, they will have to move fairly fast. Even with a long campaign, time is of the essence.
15 07 22 Matt
I think this one goes Liberal...it may be the only Liberal seat in Alberta on election night, but the NDP has little to no ground game in this part of Edmonton and the Tories are at a significant disadvantage with no incumbent and polling significantly below their 2011 performance in Alberta and particularly in Edmonton.
15 07 05 Doc t
I live in the riding. Randy (the Liberal candidate) has been campaigning for a long time and the anti-Conservative vote seems to be rallying around him (several provincial NDPers here also agree). The NDP will likely field a candidate but unless it is a high profile person like in the last election, the contest will be between the Liberals and Conservatives.
15 05 19 bza
I live in the neighbourhood of Lynnwood in Edmonton-Centre. I think its too close to call for the time being, just as the NDP hasn't held its nomination yet, but I think it will be one of the closest races in Alberta on election night.
The Conservatives and Liberals both have fairly strongly candidates, and the NDP will provide a substantial campaign as it stands to be the 4th most likely pick-up in Edmonton after Strathcona, Grisbach, and Manning.
All the ridings went NDP in the provincial election by wide margins and even knocked off Laurie Blakeman in the provincial Centre riding.
It will likely be close, something in the range of 35/30/30 I would imagine for the 3 big parties.
15 05 17 Durham Guy
Threehundredeight actually has the Liberals winning here with a 78% chance. They have been polling better in Alberta since 2011 and if there is any seat in Edmonton they'll take, it'll be this one. You'd think the NDP would have a candidate by now.
This is perhaps the only seat in Alberta where it will be a Liberal-NDP battle, but the Conservatives will finish in a very strong third. Unless the NDP nominate a star candidate, I'm giving the edge to the Liberals.
15 04 30 Gillian
With the provincial Liberals destroyed, the NDP should have no problem taking this riding from the Conservatives with the right candidate.
15 04 28 Madcaper
This is a riding that the Liberals are definitely in the mix and look poised to take this seat from the Conservatives. The only fly in the ointment is the recent surge in support for the New Democrats and how much that will change the outcome by possibly taking votes that may have been looking at voting Liberal or Conservative and have decided on the New Democrats with their new found support. Still a possible Liberal pick up but for now still TCTC. One to watch on E-night
15 04 02 Mr. Dave
The provincial NDP has seen their poll numbers take a huge jump in support over the past few weeks, thanks to an unpopular Conservative government provincially. If that continues, and should a provincial election see the NDP take the majority of Edmonton seats, that could bode well for them federally.
There could be a few more non-Conservative ridings from Alberta after this fall's election, and this is probably going to be one of them.
15 03 30 Fairview Resident
Mr. Kelly seems to want to plant the idea that the NDP have a chance here. If the NDP barely placed ahead of the Liberals in the riding when they were ahead 17% to 9% in AB, they won't when they're behind the Liberals 17% to 24%. The Liberals are now consistently ahead of the NDP in AB by about 7%, and they held this riding when they won 22% in AB in 2004. They also have a solid candidate in Boissonnault and no incumbent to unseat, while the NDP have yet to nominate a candidate. The Liberals are the favourites, the Tories still have decent shot to hold the riding and the NDP really don't have a chance.
15 03 30 Marco Ricci
The post by P Kelly is at odds with recent voting trends. The Liberals under Justin Trudeau have gained in the last several by-elections in Alberta. In Fort McMurray last year, the Liberals had the best numbers they've had in decades. They also made major vote gains in Macleod & Yellowhead. That doesn't mean the Trudeau Liberals are going to start sweeping Alberta, but over the past 2 years they have beat the Mulcair NDP in every riding.
15 03 29 JC
Dude this is Edmonton which is easily the more left-leaning of the two Alberta Cities. The Liberals might be radioactive outside of Calgary and Edmonton but this does not mean they have no hope in either Edmonton or Calgary, The current polling puts this seat in play and the Liberals finished 2nd last time while the NDP finished 3rd, the NDP even lost a candidate and Boissonault has been working this riding for almost half a year. Of any seat in Alberta this is going to be the most friendly to Liberals. They will win this seat so long as they keep their current numbers.
15 03 28 P Kelly
The first thing we need to do is immediately dismiss the liberal party as a serious contender for anything in Alberta. Headed by a 'Trudeau', the liberal brand is radioactive right now. If this seat goes anywhere, it goes NDP.
15 03 29 monkey
If the Liberals make any gains in Alberta, this will be the first to fall. The main thing here is do progressives unite behind the Liberals in which case they will win or split between the NDP and Liberal in which case the Tories will win as the Tories usually got in the low 40s in this riding.
15 03 24 JC
As of now this is the one seat in Alberta that is the likeliest to flip parties in the next election, Boissonault should be able to take this but James Cumming is a capable candidate.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Many Conservative nominations in Alberta are effectively contests to see who can spout the most irrational and insane positions with a straight face. Laurie Hawn and Rona Ambrose definitely won those competitions, it's hard to think of two ministers with less sincerity, achievement or integrity even in the Harper cabinet. And Albertans seem to eat it up, with quacked ideology pretty much winning the vote over rational thought.
That said, a new riding, even composed of such characters as vote for these two, can have different dynamics. These ministers are excellent targets for formal or informal swapping, and so I'm not calling this one.
It's one of those new urban ridings that Conservatives might actually lose particularly if they offer the same quacks and shills they did previously, in a slumping economy yet.

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