Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Edmonton-Wetaskiwin


Prediction Changed
2015-03-24 23:44:54
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Biollo, Jacqueline

Bitz, Fritz K.

Hut, Joy-Ann

Lake, Mike

Whitlock, Brayden


Population/populations
(2011 census)

110644


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

3119675.57%
589214.27%
23645.73%
16884.09%
Other 1420.34%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Edmonton-Leduc
   (71/193 polls, 39.71% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
James Rajotte
12089
2330
999
747


   Wetaskiwin
   (67/193 polls, 30.21% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Blaine Calkins
11517
1574
426
584


   Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
   (51/193 polls, 28.13% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Hon. Mike Lake
6962
1870
909
302
Other139


   Vegreville-Wainwright
   (4/193 polls, 1.95%of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Leon Benoit
628
118
30
55
Other3



 


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15 10 09 Canucklehead
75.155.62.48
Newly drawn riding which takes parts of Edmontons southern suburbs and a T shaped area south of Edmonton including small cities/towns and. wide rural geograpic area. In the recent provincial election, Wetaskiwin, Beaumont and Leduc surprised many and went NDP (Hobbema/Maskwacis is in an entirely different riding), but not sure if that will translate into the federal election. Despite a want for change, there's enough lifetime small C conservatives here to keep this riding blue and demographically seems like one of the safer CPC Edmonton seats.
15 10 06 RJS
139.142.33.162
Based on the election forum, I think Mike Lake's seat is relatively safe. That said, my prediction is that in terms of popular vote, this time around there may be enough disaffected voters willing to mark and X next to either the Liberal or NDP candidate's name, and by doing so, the likelihood, in my view, is that Lake will win thanks to vote splitting.
15 09 29 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Earlier this year, I was prepared to offer that if one were to separate the 'safe' Edmonton CPC seats from the 'potentially vulnerable' ones, you'd know which side this one was on by the simple name 'Wetaskiwin' Well, whaddaya know, the *provincial* seat of Wetaskiwin-Camrose went Notley NDP (though the Hobbema/Maskwacis First Nations--outside the present fed boundaries--had a fair bit to do with that). But for whatever fleeting fantasies that might have sparked, we're back to normal now--though maybe moderated a bit from the three-quarters-of-the-vote circumstance that's marked recent HarperCon elections...
15 09 27 R.O.
24.146.23.226
The name of this riding is confusing as it's a mix of Edmonton and rural areas. but either way Mike Lake has been an mp since 2006 for Edmonton and likely to hold this riding for the conservatives.
15 08 04 John
204.191.168.30
One of the reasons, provincially, the NDP picked up a lot of rural Alberta seats in the last provincial election is the Progressive Conservatives and Wild Rose split the vote on the right.
Federally, there is only one party on the right--the Conservatives.
A rural riding like Edmonton-Wetaskiwin should stay Conservative.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
This only includes a small part of Edmonton and a fairly conservative part while the rest is rural and thus solidly Conservative.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
One of the Safest Tory Edmonton Ridings.
15 03 24 Philly D.
198.168.27.218
Wetaskiwin makes this riding perma-safe for the CPC, although the Edmonton part will certainly result in their margin being slashed.



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