Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Foothills


Prediction Changed
2015-03-23 23:02:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Barlow, John

MacPherson, Tanya

Morgan, Cory

Slingerland, Marc

Thompson, Alison

Tittel, Romy S.


Population/populations
(2011 census)

105515


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

3589977.82%
465510.09%
16243.52%
21934.75%
Other 17583.81%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Macleod
   (181/185 polls, 99.92% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
John Barlow
35850
4650
1597
2181
Other1757


   Lethbridge
   (2/185 polls, 0.08% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Jim Hillyer
46
4
27
12
Other1



 


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15 09 29 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Interesting for rural Alberta that this seat's seen two consecutive PC-camp Conservatives representing it federally (first Ted Menzies, and now Barlow). Typical wall o' blue leavened by a few reserves and other pinpricks like Kananaskis, Waterton Lakes, a certain long-ago and now *very* faded NDP/labour legacy in Crowsnest Pass, etc.
15 05 26 bza
199.213.255.149
This riding will stay Conservative, the provincial riding results didn't indicate a big shift away in this area.
15 03 29 monkey
174.114.31.13
This is the riding the former WRA leader Danielle Smith comes from so unless the right fractures again, this riding won't even be competitive. Interestingly enough John Barlow was the provincial PC candidate who ran against her last election.
15 03 25 Dr Bear
174.89.199.19
I doubt voters here would even notice that there was an election going on. It's such a forgone conclusion that the CPC will hold this seat, that no one would bother campaigning.
15 03 23 JW
99.232.118.35
While a selected few (very few, if any) ridings in Edmonton or even Calgary may end up being competitive at some point of the campaign, rural Alberta will continue to be solid Conservative territory. Remember, the last time rural Alberta returned a non-Conservative/PC/Reform/Alliance MP was 1968 (two that election, and one of them started with the Social Credits).



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