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|15 10 18
|Vote swaps - vote schmaps.Would take massive numbers of Cons and Libs to switch. Green will not go from 12% to ousting the incumbent. NDP hold.
|15 10 18
|Sir Moog Synthesizer
|The prediction the Greens will take the seat is interesting. Wrong, but interesting.
1. Roberts has shot herself in the foot late in the campaign with some questionable remarks. That has made up the mind of many an undecided voter.
2. The thesis the Greens can take the seat is based on a ~3% spread in the 2012 byelection after incumbent Denise Savoie retired in 2012. In 2011 she took the seat with ~50% of the vote.
Not only does a byelection have a different dynamic than a general election (which makes 2012 a questionable basis to make a prediction), but Rankin was an unknown quantity in 2012. Since then, he's shown himself to be easily one of the most capable New Democrats in the House, and a good local constituency MP. (I'm not a New Democrat, but facts are facts.)
I suspect those predicting the Greens taking this seat are completely ignoring the incumbency advantage Rankin has.
3. Cheryl Thomas is still on the ballot and may jump back. If her presence will siphon votes from anyone, it's the Greens. In the absence of sufficiently strong Conservative numbers to motivate the 'anybody but conservative' crowd to rally around a particular candidate, Liberal voters are far more likely to vote Green as opposed to NDP if it were to come down to a choice between the two. Thomas' presence siphons away strategic votes to the Greens.
4. Liberal and Conservative votes are fairly 'sticky'. Assumptions of Green victory assume an unlikely number of votes 'bleeding' to the Greens.
5. Nationwide Trudeau / Liberal bounce = more people voting Liberal (again, votes going to Thomas and not Roberts), plus fewer people feel the need to vote Green for strategic reasons to try and pick off an NDP seat.
It's going to be close, but Rankin is still going to take the seat.
|15 10 18
|Van Island Voter
|This riding will be close although NDP fortunes are going down considering their drop in the polls and the reality that they are expected to be reduced to third party status. Both the Greens and NDP have been running well organized campaigns but with recent news that Rankin represented a US firm to sue Canada for $300 million through NAFTA I can see his fortunes declining even further. Also, it appears that much of the Liberal support will go to the Greens particularly in the Oak Bay area. I see this to be close but considering recent events the Greens have the advantage here.
|15 10 17
|It's still too close to call on this one.
My family in Victoria is getting constant non stop phone calls from the Greens, NDP and a ton of 'opinion poll researchers'.
It's a very tight two way race.
Neither of the two leading candidates will be part of government but there are huge stakes for both the Greens and NDP here.
It's getting tense and nasty between the NDP and Greens here.
The question is whether the Liberals and Conservatives pull a 'social credit', 'BC Liberal' type of situation where they all vote for the Green candidate to stop the NDP.
BTW, nationally I am predicting a Liberal Majority!
We'll see what happens here.
|15 10 17
|I tend to give a small edge to the NDP over the Greens in Victoria.
But I am reminded that in 2011, many people, including myself as well as EPP, predicted that Saanich-Gulf Islands would remain Conservative for Gary Lunn and that Elizabeth May and the Greens wouldn't take it. That turned out to be incorrect. Several of us on EPP underestimated the ability of Liz May to win.
There is a difference that Elizabeth May was a party leader and had a higher profile, as well as a bigger Green base in her riding to start from, and so the Greens may not be able to win here by the big 10-point margin that Liz May beat Gary Lunn by.
However, if the Greens display the strong organizational skill that they have in the past, and if they can really motivate their people to come out, perhaps they can pull off another upset. With Green prospects fading in other ridings, perhaps they will concentrate most of their resources in Victoria.
It depends where the Liberal (& disgruntled Conservative?) vote goes. The Liberal candidate has been disqualified, but just like the disqualified NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands in 2008, the Lib name remains on the ballot and can suck away some votes like the NDP did in 2008. Gary Lunn was able to narrowly hold off the Liberals in 2008 because the disqualified NDP candidate still got a few votes.
Apart from needing some Liberals to vote Green, the Greens may also need a few disgruntled Conservatives who aren't happy with the Cons or the Libs & NDP to move over to the Greens. Liz May did pick up some moderate Con voters in 2011 in Saanich-Gulf Islands, so it will be interesting to see whether Jo-Ann Roberts can do so as well. That could make the difference for her to beat Rankin.
Would be interesting to see a final riding poll released here this weekend.
|15 10 16
|This is the only site that is showing this as a Green win. electionalalmanac.com has it as NDP. threenhudredeight.com has it as NDP. I really think that showing this as a Green pickup is speculative. I run every morning through south Oak Bay, and today I counted 2 times as many NDP signs as Green signs. Oak Bay is the key to the Green hopes. Now I know that the dipper vote is a dedicated vote and the Greens are more likely to pick up casual votes, but I still think that the sign count in south Oak Bay is significant. When you move into Fernwood, or drive along Richmond Ave., the NDP signs are plentiful and Green signs less common than in Oak Bay. Some posters have suggested that the drop out of the Liberal candidate is an NDP advantage. I disagree: these votes are just as likely, or more likely, to go Green. But people are overlooking where the Con vote is going: I am seeing a lot more Con signs than I did four years ago. The resurgence of the Cons will cut into the Green vote. In the by-election, the Uplands and Ten Mile Point were solidly Green. I don't expect to see the same outcome in this election as the right wing vote shifts from the Greens in an effort to preserve the Harper government. Still, this one will be close, and I will not be shocked if it goes Green. Nevertheless, I expect that the popular incumbent will hang on by his nails.
|15 10 16
|I very much concur with the call for a 2nd Green seat in the Victoria riding. I have had many discussions lately with Conservative and Liberal voters in that riding and 90% of them have decided to move their vote over to the Green Party to, in effect...block another NDP win. Nationally, people perhaps do not understand that in British Columbia, the NDP is synonymous with fraud, corruption, graft, poor economic performance, plummeting investment and worst of all the great pandering to the corporatized public unions that provide employment only for themselves at the detriment to the rest of the population. It should also be noted that the strong push for PR from the whole spectrum in BC, would also result in a very different environment than many would suspect. The consolidation of the Conservatives and Liberal at the forefront would be obvious, and then its apparent from much of the population that the Green Party would likely supplant the NDP as the 3rd Party in BC as they would drag off many '2nd choice' votes from those first two and the NDP supporters themselves. Conservative voters, do not, will not ever 2nd choice the NDP, and neither will 80% of Liberals. I can just hear the CCFers and the Wafflers(that are still very prevalent in BC) quaking now...
|15 10 16
|It's sort of interesting to see how this website is now calling it Green and ThreeHundredEight is predicting the NDP taking this one with upwards of 40% of the vote with the Greens at 26%. The two sites are heading in opposite directions, and with three days until Canadians flock to the polls, it's going to be interesting. My prediction? Greens taking it by a small percentage <3% of the vote, giving the Green party an elected two member caucus.
|15 10 16
|With the resignation of the Liberal candidate and the locally very-well-publicized vote swap endorsement from a Green in Toronto pulling back (not 'out' he made clear voters who had no second choice or swap could and should still vote Green) in favour of a Liberal, I think finally I call this Green.
NDP stalwarts in Guelph and Fredericton should be considering the huge gain in Ontario (and a couple of Atlantic) seats to them of similarly endorsing swaps to favour the Greens there, where the Greens face off against Liberals. It would be a nice slap to VoteTogether as well which endorsed more Liberal than NDP despite the NDP being in more confusing races where a 'strategic' Liberal vote could hand the seat to the Conservative, esp in BC. And which endorsed Fredericton for Liberal to frustrate its own Green supporters. Frankly from what I see on the ground, VoteTogether has far fewer people than they claim. There is also no way to QUIT their project that is obvious, so their numbers claims are from before they made recommendations, and by now I expect very far down in Green and NDP support due in part to threat of a Trudeau majority. So I think their impact will be less, but that of tit-for-tat endorsement more.
This is the only seat in the country where there's actually a clear path for Liberals to vote Green in exchange for Greens voting Liberal in some other close race (York Centre), with the Liberal and Green in each place publicizing that deal. So if this swings Green, that will be similar to the crazy 6800-vote shift for May, after the thousand or so Green signed up at votepair.ca publicized their desire for swaps. Formal swaps went up from 7 to 127 but then that huge swing appeared. The theory is that *JUST PUBLICIZING SWAP OFFERS* swings votes. Most people believe in reciprocity.
In Victoria, for the first time anywhere, they have candidates endorsing it. If the ground campaign is making this clear, I expect a huge Green win.
|15 10 14
|TCTC. This will probably be one of the tighter races. WIth the LPC not a factor here, where does the 'surge' (such as it is on Vancouver Island), go? Being a party in its nascent stages of electability in Canada, a predictor can't draw on past results which muddles this one! Will be watching this riding very closely, especially in light of a bit of an NDP slump in BC (which is hard to gauge on the island).
|15 10 14
|It's still TCTC. I am not calling it for the Greens just yet.
Both the Greens and the NDP are running strong campaigns and strong candidates. This riding is by far the Green's best and probably last chance to increase their caucus size and their campaign is showing that.
I see more BIG NDP signs but a surprising large number of individual Green lawn signs in areas that I would have thought are NDP strongholds - I'm talking Fernwood, James Bay, North Park and even the Blanshard Court subsidized housing complex.
That said, I'm seeing a few BIG NDP signs even in front of some mansions in the Uplands where one would think the NDP would be about as popular as a brand new homeless shelter next to the Yacht Club.
The resignation of the LPC candidate helps the Greens but her name will still be on the ballot which might still confuse some potential Green voters.
What will matter here are the CPC votes - will they swing to the Green Party to stop the NDP or will they not?
|15 10 13
|Although many will still call this a close race, I am actually calling it Green. With all the recent polls considered, withdrawal of Liberal candidate, vote swaps, decline of NDP. Everyone will agree that it is the best chance of the Green to get a second seat and I am going on a limb calling it for them. The Green machine has been and continue to be in force in this riding. Green popularity continue to rise and eventhough most media continue to give argue a small advantage to NDP, I'll argue that the Greens are on the way up and they ain't stopping. I'd say Green here.
|15 10 13
|I generally find the Green partisans to be the most ridiculous with their optimism for their parties prospects on this site but this is one riding where they may be onto something. A true progressive riding where that segment doesn't need to vote strategically couple with the NDPs muddled centrist message and this riding is competitive. I also expect a liberal increase here too though so who knows?
|15 10 12
|New development. York Centre Green candidate Constantine Kritsonis, where Liberal Michael Levitt is in a very close race against Con Mike Adler, has endorsed vote swaps between Green and Liberal in a press release visible at https://www.facebook.com/groups/697873500356539/permalink/699759143501308/
Levitt and Roberts both 'retweeted' the announcement and that link to the release, making this a three way endorsement so far.
Kritsonis is on the radio in Vancouver and Victoria and calling on Liberal Cheryl Thomas to reciprocate in Victoria, matching up Greens in York Centre and Liberals in Victoria to vote for each other's party. First time ever...
Also there are live vote swap events now planned for the Vancouver area.
This is really one of the most interesting races in the country.
|15 10 11
|I'm calling this one for the Greens. Between 308 identifying it as the Greens' No. 1 target, them doing very well in a by-election, and Liberal voters much likelier to go Green than NDP with no candidate, I think quantitatively this one is Green, and qualitatively they will be targeting this with everything they have, as it is a very good chance for a second seat which they badly want.
|15 10 10
|Withdrawing my NDP call from earlier, for these reasons:
1. The NDP support has fallen precipitously in BC, making seats like this vulnerable especially to another progressive party Liberals can vote for. In a neck and neck Mulcair/Trudeau election, a Green seat is at least not a Mulcair seat, and so a Trudeau supporter can justify voting Green here.
2. Greens fell apart in Yukon and Burnaby-North Seymour, their best BC prospects according to riding level polls are Cowichan, Nanaimo and Esquimault. That is still three tough races to pull away donors and volunteers, even vote swaps, but May's organization is in better position to help urban Victoria.
3. https://twitter.com/JoAnnRobertsYYJ shows a solid focus on local media. Which is definitely what the Greens want people to watch, not 'national' i.e. Toronto media.
4. Those that are watching national media say the NDP is falling, and that's a good reason to hedge with a Green MP who can negotiate with both parties.
5. Media skills matter in the last ten days of the campaign, and Roberts has those. It's odd that she hasn't used them to get visible nationally, but it appears to be a strategy, not a failure. I'm not a believer yet, which is why I don't call this for her. But she's the media shill not me.
|15 10 09
|Liberal withdrawal does not help the NDP. Why? A number of reasons.
1 - There is always, always, an anti-incumbent vote, no matter who that incumbent is. That alone would draw in a (small) number of voters from the Liberals to the Greens.
2 - Policy. This is visible on vote compass, when you tally your results. The Greens, despite what some still think, are not to the left of the NDP, they are between the NDP and Liberals on policy. It's more natural for a Liberal to 'fit' with Green policy than to fit with NDP policy.
3 - Province. Lets remember this is BC. In BC in particular, there is more 'NDP vs Liberal' hatred than you'll find in just about any other province.
While each of these might only account for a few voters, and while many Liberals will still vote for their discredited Candidate, it means any close race (like what we are looking at) has the Greens with the advantage.
|15 10 09
|Mark in Mexico
|These so-called social media 'scandals' and their associated candidate resignations are doing a lot more to reshape the races in their respective ridings than almost anything any other candidate or party has said or done. In other ridings, they have provided guidance to ABH voters sorting through the 'progressive primary.' In this riding, where the Conservatives weren't really in play at the outset, the late-in-the-game turfing of the Liberal candidate, combined with the NDP's slide in the national polls, have created a unique situation.
Victoria, an NDP-Green contest, is on track to be the only riding outside of Québec which seems 99.9% certain to elect a non-government MP. It doesn't matter what the national outcome -- CPC majority, CPC minority, LPC majority, LPC minority -- barring a sea change between now and the 19th, the voters of Victoria seem unlikely to affect it regardless of their decision. So voters can vote 'with their hearts' in much the same way as they would in a by-election. Of course, the Greens have done quite well in by-elections, nowhere more than -- aha! -- Victoria, in very recent memory.
Disenfranchised Liberals will move their votes in all directions -- even the Conservatives may well pick up some percentage points, although not enough to run up the middle between the NDP and Greens -- but again, under the circumstances, the Greens seem like the most likely net beneficiary of the three.
Victoria has emerged as the Greens' undisputed best hope for a second seat, setting up a choice that is unique to voters in the riding: return yet another respectable NDP MP to a non-government caucus of who-knows-what-size, or be the 'first to follow' the Green example from next door four years ago. I expect many progressive voters, including some NDP voters having lost ambition to be part of the next government, to be more excited about the Green option.
So, like the by-election, this is TCTC, ten days out, but with the Greens looking more favourable than ever, perhaps with a bit of an edge. I'll bet the margin between them is smaller than the number of votes the withdrawn Liberal will receive.
A great Green campaign seems to have brought the party to the precipice of victory, but what some woman from some other party said on some website some years ago may well be what puts them over the top.
|15 10 08
|This is a very interesting riding as it appears to have become an ndp/green race after liberal candidate was forced to quit. There is still a tory candidate John Rizzuti but this riding not really a target for them this year. I was thinking about this riding and it appears to me it's the perfect storm for the green party. as some factors may work in there advantage , first one being there is no liberal candidate so it's a race just between them and ndp, and since green's came close in by-election voters will see them as having a chance here . secondly the ndp is polling 3rd nationwide and doesn't have the momentum anymore. So its going to have a tougher time holding onto margin ridings like this one. Thirdly the riding is beside May's riding so voting green is becoming more common in this region. I don't know it just seems like the perfect combination of factors for the greens here , if they can't find a way to win this riding it might be a very long time until May has any elected caucus members .
|15 10 08
|The Greens have an uphill battle to win this. To predict a Green win you have to believe that the NDP will bleed significant support relative to 2011 and that the Greens will consolidate nearly all of the non NDP vote.
Both assumptions are challenging. I think the NDP likely to at very least hold most of their 2011 vote. Then I expect 10% hardcore Conservative supporters that will support their candidate rather than vote strategically against the NDP. Liberal voters adding up to a few percent of total will vote for their withdrawn candidate or stay home rather than switching. Fringe candidates could expect to collectively garner nearly 1% of votes.
Conclusion - likely NDP hold
PS I like Islander's analysis and I think it is broadly correct but slightly overstates Green support. For instance Fairfield and Fernwood will lean NDP rather than being Green/NDP tie.
|15 10 08
|Honestly, ThreeHundredEight is not a very reliable site for this riding in particular. It predicts the Greens only getting 28% of the vote in this riding, and the Liberals, who's candidate has dropped out, receiving 15%. They also foresee the chances of Rankin getting re-elected are 78%. I disagree, but perhaps it hasn't been updated yet. As of right now, it will be a tight race between Rankin and Roberts, but I think that, with May's riding neighbouring Victoria, and the Greens focusing lots of their resources into this riding, Roberts will be able to become the Green's second ever elected MP in Canada's history.
|15 10 06
|Islander - your analysis is superb.
I agree with most of what you say there except for one thing.
I think you underestimate the dislike/fear of the NDP in the well-to-do, slightly less urban, northern parts of the riding like the Uplands and Ten Mile Point.
If you look at the 2011 election, yes, these places went Conservative and they are definitely conservative/Socred leaning.
In fact, they are so anti-NDP, right wing that they will throw that CPC vote to the Green Party to stop the socialist NDP herds from storming their estates and mansions. If the Liberals were running strong, they would throw their vote there simply to stop the NDP from taking the riding. This Anything But the NDP trend was illustrated in the by-election and also the Oak Bay-Gordon Head Provincial election.
I think you can throw most of that conservative vote you identify in the Uplands (and in Caddy Bay, Queenswood, 10 Mile Point) over to the Green pile.
I would also throw much of the conservative vote in the inland, northern part of North Oak Bay (Henderson) over to the Green Party as well, too. Henderson generally polls conservative, too, (like Uplands) and anti-NDP. That area is not as wealthy as Uplands but quite suburban in lay out and is upper middle class demographically.
It doesn't hurt the Greens either that the residents of the north eastern part of the riding while generally right of centre tend to like their big houses set amid treed, sylvan, privacy.
It's in this northeastern part of the riding where the NDP likely could lose their seat and the Greens could elect their second MP.
In fact, this riding as a whole is by far the most likely place for the Greens to get their next representative in Parliament.
|15 10 06
|This riding is a rarity in Canada, one where the Greens have a very good chance of winning. It is a interesting riding demographically as well, covering BC's capital city of Victoria and the neighboring municipality of Oak Bay, as well as small parts of Saanich, the city to the north of Victoria. I have broken down my prediction by neighborhood. The prediction is broken down as NDP/Green/Conservative. Since the Liberal candidate has withdrawn, I have not included them, but I would expect them to get between 3% and 5% of the vote in all of the areas.
Averaged out, the results are NDP: 40%, Greens: 40%, Conservatives 20%, making this riding simply far to close to call.
Victoria West: A traditionally working class area of Victoria, now mainly middle-class with young families. It also contains the generally senior-orientated and wealthy Songhees area. I would say this area is currently 45/30/25, making it the best neighborhood for the Tories in Victoria Proper.
Downtown-James Bay: The most central area of the riding, composed of (the relatively low-resident and mainly commercial) Downtown core and James Bay, which is the peninsula to the southwest of Downtown,and has a mix of middle-income apartments and single-residence dwellings, and is probably the most densely populated neighborhood in the riding. One of the stronger areas for the NDP, I see it going 55/30/15.
Burnside-Quadra-Hillside: Another strong area for the NDP, this northern area of the riding is generally middle to low income, with the low income residents especially concentrated in the Quadra Village area, and more middle-income areas to the North and East, especially Hillside. I see it going 50/35/15.
Fernwood-North Park: A mixed income area of the riding, it is known for being the Bohemian enclave to the immediate West of Downtown, and is the transition point between the Urban areas to the West surrounding Downtown and the suburbs to the east. It is a strong area for both the Greens and the NDP. I see it going 45/45/10.
Oaklands-Jubilee: A generally quiet suburban area with middle-income younger families. Also a particularly strong area for the NDP. I think it will be about 50/40/10.
Rockland-Gonzales: A generally higher-income area of the riding, with old houses and wealthy families, especially in the shady Rockland area, well known for being the location of Government House and several (really) castles. Although it is normally Conservative, the Greens should be able to dominate this area. 35/45/20.
Fairfield: Upper-middle income suburban area in the Southern part of the riding along the waterfront. This may be where the riding's victor is decided, as it has a high turnout and is ending up a close fight between the NDP and Greens. 40/40/20
South Oak Bay: As we move out of Victoria proper and into the municipal district of Oak Bay, we start in the Southern part of the municipality, which is generally upper income and a little stronger for the Tories traditionally. But this is also an area where environmental issues tend to be important, and should see the Greens dominate. 30/55/15.
North Oak Bay: Slightly more mixed-income then the Southern part of Oak Bay, North Oak Bay has higher-income areas along the water where the Tories and Greens are competing and lower income areas inland where it is and NDP/Green contest (Full disclosure, this is my neighborhood). I see it as 35/40/25.
Uplands: By far the wealthiest part of the riding, the NDP has a hard time making inroads here. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are actually competitive, and should be able to hold on to their support here, with the Greens coming closest to beating them. It is also the area I see the Liberals having their highest support in, but I have still chosen not to include that as it will be marginal. 25/35/40
Cadboro Bay-Ten Mile Point: Similar in demographics to the Uplands, but slightly less Conservative and less wealthy. Cadboro Bay feels secluded from the rest of the riding, being tucked behind the Uplands and the University. It is also a close contest between the Tories and the Greens, but with the Greens coming ahead this time. I see it going 25/45/30.
Cedar Hill-Mount Tolmie: Middle income, this area is the only part of the riding that lies within the city of Saanich, and therefore its demographics and voting patterns are far more similar to that riding then to Victoria. The NDP should win this area with 45/35/20.
|15 10 03
|The riding is still too close to call.
The 2011 general election results can't be relied on because there was no anti-NDP coalescence behind the Greens.
In the by-election, the Greens came extremely close to taking the riding.
This time, the Greens are running a much stronger campaign together with all of the centre/centre-right anti-NDP votes behind them as well.
With the drop out of the Liberal candidate, I predict the Liberal votes will go to the Green Party rather than the NDP as Liberal voters in this riding tend to be rather upscale and do not generally vote NDP.
It's going to be close but I see the NDP-Greens splitting in favour of the NDP - 55-45 of inner city areas like James Bay, North Park, Downtown, Fernwood, Jubilee.
I see Fairfield, Richmond, Mount Tolmie as a 50-50 toss-up between the NDP and the Greens.
South Oak Bay, Estevan, Rockland, Willows, Cadboro Bay Village will go 60-40 in favour of the Greens over the NDP.
Uplands, Queenswood, Henderson, Ten Mile Point will go decisively to the Greens - 80% Green, 15% Conservative, 5 % NDP (here is where the anti-NDP conservative/liberal vote going to the Green Party is most apparent).
It's going to be squeaker either way.
|15 10 02
|I don't think the Liberal withdrawal helps the NDP. Although the NDP will certainly capture a number of Liberal votes, the Greens are likely to capture more. Those who know that the Liberal withdrew will probably also know that the Greens nearly won here in a byelection and that either party has a shot. Greens generally have more cross-party appeal to begin with, but if the NDP spends the last 3 weeks attacking the Liberals nationally, then those who were inclined to vote Liberal may be more inclined to vote Green. But who knows - the NDP may already have an insurmountable lead in fully committed supporters.
|15 10 03
|I have lived in the riding most of my life and follow elections closely. When Elizabeth May won in SGI and Andrew Weaver won provincially in Oak Bay Gordon Head, they each had many signs on people's lawns which foretold the results. In the course of ferrying kids around town and running errands I have driven through most of the riding. Judging by the signs I can guarantee that the Greens will finish first in Oak Bay, Cadboro Bay, 10 mile point and parts of Fairfield. The NDP will likely finish ahead in Victoria city. The NDP campaign must know they are behind in Oak Bay as I've noticed many of their signs on the boulevard to try and counter Green signs on people's property. In past elections, parties usually stuck to boulevard signs at busy intersections, away from people's houses, unless the home owner asks for a sign. This time around I've noticed the NDP placing a lot of signs on the boulevard in quieter areas and corner lots where the home owner has not likely provided consent. I've seen at least 3 examples where an NDP sign is on the boulevard near a 4 way stop in a quiet neighborhood and the likely annoyed home owner who lives on the corner has a green sign on their property ( I could submit photo examples if it is of interest).
I have also personally heard from a number of people who have voted Conservative in the past who are voting Green this time
I can also guarantee most Liberal votes will split in the Green's favor. The type of voter who votes Liberal in Victoria lives in neighborhoods where the Greens are doing well (i.e. Liberals did best in Oak Bay in the last general election).
My Prediction: Conservative: 20%; Liberal: 3%(some will stay home, some will mark the ballot Liberal anyway); NDP 37%; Green 40%
|15 10 02
|Victoria will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch on October 19. This is one of the few ridings where Conservatives and Liberals play little to no factor. Having a strong NDP base in the downtown core, James Bay, and Fernwood, it's a predictable guess that this riding will be painted Orange again. However, Elizabeth May's riding is situated next door and the Green Party has poured a large chunk of their resources into the Greater Victoria Area. Jo-Ann Roberts is a well known radio host and the Green Party seems to be having strong support in Oak Bay, near UVic, and areas of Saanich included in the riding. Instead of the ABC vote, the AB-NDP vote is coalescing around the Greens. With the recent dropout of the Liberal candidate, it is likely to send more votes to the Greens than NDP and likely puts these two parties in a deadlock. With the national shakiness the NDP has being receiving as of late, I predict this riding will swing Green by the slimmest of margins.
|15 09 30
|Now that our Liberal candidate is out, those votes should flow more to the NDP (the traditional alternative) than to he Greens ... even more ABC votes for Murray Rankin.
|15 09 30
|With the Liberal candidate backing out of the race, it is more likely than ever that Victoria will provide the Green party with their second elected MP.
|15 09 30
|Here's an interesting development - the Liberal candidate resigned over past controversial remarks about Muslims and Jews resurfaced. However, the deadline to find a new candidate has passed so that means her name will be on the ballot. So where does that Liberal support go? They had almost 8500 votes last time. Do they go Con, NDP, Green? Or do they simply sit at home this time? This definitely makes Victoria TCTC now that those 8500 votes are in play.
|15 09 29
|This will be an NDP hold.
Greens will do well but will under-perform their by election result.
Reasons: (1) Murray Rankin, now the incumbent, will consolidate the 'anybody but Harper' vote. The anybody but Harper vote is STRONG here. (2) Murray Rankin has impeccable environmental credentials, making him easy for 'GREEN inclined' voters to support as a strategic decision, (3) Stakes are higher in a close general election. Folks who support a small party in the by-election are going to gravitate to one of the major parties in the general. Here the option is Murray Rankin (4) The level the NDP is polling in BC this time around suggests they will be gaining seats, not losing incumbents. (5) If you look at candidate signs located on private property only, the NDP have a clear edge over the Greens.
|15 09 24
|The NDP is very strong in Victoria, getting 51% of the vote (using the new riding boundaries) in the last general election, compared with 11.6% for the Greens. Byelection results don't generally translate into general election results, so the Greens are unlikely to come close their level in the byelection.
Ray M below says that the NDP is only strong in some pockets of the riding (around the core area of Victoria). In fact, of the 256 polling stations in the Victoria riding, the NDP won 227 of them (89% of the total) in 2011, so their support is really quite widespread.
The Greens like to focus on the one poll way back in mid-August that showed them at 32% on Vancouver Island, but a Mainstreet poll on Sept. 15 put them at 16% on the Island and 10% Province-wide, which is much more in line with other Provincial poll. Individual riding polls on the Island also put the Greens in the 10-20% range. They will not be able to take this riding, especially when the Murray Rankin has probably the strongest environmental credentials of any sitting MP.
|15 09 22
|Definitely a TCTC riding.
I suspect that most of the polling websites I trust like 308, are underestimating the greens in this part of the country. Elizabeth May changed the game in BC in 2011 by becoming the first green to be elected. With Victoria being so close to May, I can actually see this one turning. She stated that the greens are focusing on key ridings they can win and putting most of their resources there and that they have a lot of support on the island.
If any riding outside Saanich-Gulf Islands is going to go green this year, it'll be Victoria.
|15 09 22
|This one is still 'Too Close to Call'. I see 308 has this one going to the NDP and that may likely happen BUT the Greens are running a very, very strong campaign and after Saanich-Gulf Islands this is the riding most likely to go Green. Provincially, the Victoria riding encompasses the entire Oak Bay-Gordon Head provincial riding which is now a Green riding. The Green candidate is a strong candidate as is the NDP candidate. The Victoria riding includes older neighbourhoods in three municipalities: Victoria, Oak Bay and Saanich.
Victoria proper is a staunch NDP area with lots of unionized civil servants and younger, 'artsy', less affluent types - all of which like the NDP. They tend to live in Fernwood, James Bay, North Park and Downtown. But these types also like the Green party as well.
But the Victoria Riding also includes a lot of upscale, older neighbourhoods where you find affluent self employed professionals, wealthy business people and management level (i.e. non union) civil servants. They tend to live in the Oak Bay and Saanich parts of the riding although they can be found in Victoria, too, especially in Fairfield and Rockland.
The second category tends to vote against the NDP provincially and federally. The anti-NDP vote tends to coalesce against the strongest non NDP candidate regardless of the party. This explains why polling stations in upper crust neighbourhoods such as Uplands and Ten Mile Point in historical elections have been found to vote variously for the Conservatives, Liberals and recently, the Greens - any party except the NDP. In this election, that anti-NDP vote is coalescing behind the Greens. Add that to the strong environmental vote and you have a ridin that is 'Too Close to Call'.
|15 09 16
|It will likely be the opposite of the 2011 by-election. Very close and by only a couple thousand votes but this is going to be the Greens next seat.
|15 09 16
|Great to see this updated to TCTC. With equal numbers of lawn signs for both candidates and with this Insight's West poll showing Greens on the island at 32% (up from 20% three months ago) and the NDP at 39% (down from 47%) there is clearly a huge movement from the NDP to the Greens going on. Adding to that, most of the Green support will be localised on the lower half of the island closer to Elizabeth May's seat. Very tight race here. Exciting!
|15 09 15
|Not sure why this is TCTC. The NDP are still polling strong in BC. It's hard to see a relatively strong incumbent like Murray Rankin losing to the Greens.
A strong Green performance in a by-election does not translate to a general election victory. The Greens also had a strong showing in Calgary Centre during the same time - I doubt that means the Greens are in play there now.
For the Greens to take this seat in a general election, it would mean people that voted NDP in 2011 would have to go en masse to the Greens.
|15 09 12
|Murray Rankin is too strong and his environmental credentials are extensive, and the Green candidate is not well known enough.
|15 09 08
|This is a key target for the Green Party, not only do they have a neighbouring Green MP, but they have a Green MLA provincially. The Greens have focused resources heavily in the BC Capital region, and even with a very strong NDP showing, the Greens have a real and serious chance of winning.
|15 09 04
|Dr. J conveniently ignores the insights west poll. A 12% jump for the Greens and an 8% decline for the NDP in three months must be a worrying trend for the NDP. It is clearly already a two way race on the Island and as more traditional Liberal and Tory voters see this, they will more be inclined to go Green rather than see an NDP majority (not that this is likely). NDP is also on the decline nationally which isn't going to help. I'm seeing a nearly equal number of Jo-Ann and Murray signs - depends on the neighbourhood. Interestingly, Victoria seems to be where the largest NDP effort is. Next door in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke there are droves of Litman signs and barely any Garrison (and no one else). Not saying any of these won't be close, but with these numbers and their obvious trend, some of the ridings on the island are bound to go Green (Paul Manly in Nanaimo in particular seems to have a great shot as does Fran in Langford). My 'crystal ball' is based on a recent poll from a respected polling company, what's yours? An inaccurate lawn sign estimate? Show me some real evidence.
|15 09 03
|Griffin Lea has now called virtually every Island riding for the Greens. He apparently has a crystal ball available to no one else. This is the only riding in Canada, other than May's, where the Greens will even get a sniff, but my informal survey indicates that Rankin lawn signs outnumber Roberts signs about 3-2. (I haven't seen a sign for any other party.) I see Rankin holding this seat with about 40-45% of the vote and the Greens in the 35+% range. It will be close, but Murray is going back to Ottawa, perhaps as Health Minister.
|15 08 28
| Griffin Lea
| To follow up on Sam's comment below on this recent poll which indicates a clear two-way race between the Greens and NDP all over the Island, the 32% support shown in that is likely gathered in even more concentration on the south end of the Island surrounding Elizabeth May's seat. With this in mind, the Greens are likely already ahead in Victoria.
|15 08 26
|With the recent Insights West poll showing the Greens winning multiple seats on Vancouver Island, and with the Vancouver Sun also publishing the poll for Vancouver Island which puts the Green Party almost neck and neck island-wide, I have to call this riding for the Greens.
|15 08 22
|Mark in Mexico
|Seth, it bears mentioning that 308.com changed the formula it uses last week with regard to how it handles by-elections. This, in combination with a corresponding increase in the NDP's poll numbers in BC, contributed to the wild swing you noted.
|15 08 23
|Seth, Three Hundred Eight & Eric Grenier is a well-respected polling analyst. Grenier has worked for The Globe & Mail in the past, and now works for the CBC as their election polls analyst, so he is not an amateur hack. Most predictions by Three Hundred Eight are accurate. If you check the site, it has a very high record of accuracy.
What we are seeing is a competitive race between the Greens & the NDP, and because some of the polling data has been contradictory, it results in the riding flipping back & forth.
|15 08 24
|I agree that threehundredeight is not reliable for local polling, but their prediction that with a small uptick in Green voters nationally Victoria goes Green indicates that this riding is one they know could go either way (as do we in Victoria judging by lawn signs, the huge Green volunteer force and local Green wins in May, Weaver and Helps). I maintain, it is silly to have this as anything other than too close to call.
|15 08 20
|I wouldn't place too much weight on what threehundredeight says. Three days ago they showed the Greens in the lead in Victoria, and today they have the NDP in the lead with the Greens behind by 17 points. It's hard to take seriously any predictions with that much swing.
I think the NDP have the edge here, but there's still a lot of time between now and voting day
|15 08 17
|Three hundred eight once again calling this Green. I would highly recommend you change your prediction to at least 'too close to call'. Absurd that people still think this isn't one of the tightest races in BC, with a Green edge and momentum.
|15 08 10
|Going into the Summer, the NDP took away some of the momentum in BC that the Greens had earlier in the year.
However, after the positive reviews for Elizabeth May in last week's Leader's Debate, this may help the Greens get back some of their momentum here and cause the NDP support to soften.
Tom Mulcair didn't have the best Leader's Debate last week, and has also been criticized over the past week for saying he may not participate in any more debates. With 2.5 months until October 19, there is still the possibility of a close Green vs. NDP race here.
|15 08 10
|Calling this NDP, because it's time to forget Jo-Ann Roberts. A quick web search shows basically no press for her campaign since her well publicized seeking of the nomination. Green momentum is more likely in more rural seats where there is more direct concern about pipelines, tankers, spills.
Greens in Victoria, rather than aggravating NDP supporters here, should be offering to swap votes with them into the other ridings (notably north coastal BC) which are Con vs. NDP. Or into Yukon, where the Greens are focusing a lot of energy with a seasoned candidate against a very popular Liberal, and where the NDP's prospects are worse than either. NDP-Green quid pro quos up and down the coast could lock the Conservatives out of it for good. Continued squabbling in Victoria, Esquimault, Burnaby North Seymour, albeit for good reason (NDP support for Kinder Morgan, at least) could cause the latter two seats to fall Conservative, which neither want.
Some of these well organized Green campaigns should now be reaching out to voters in other ridings and making deals, not running to win in every seat. As Greens in Kelowna-Lake Country proved that they would do, albeit with a Liberal there.
|15 08 09
|NDP under threat in a base urban riding tends to concentrate resources and leader attention and over-react, thus losing other ridings in more remote areas they could have won.
Smart Liberals will be calling up Greens in places like Eglinton Lawrence and offering to vote Green here in exchange for knocking Joe Oliver out.
But that won't change the result here, just a long term build for the Greens. Who have far better 2015 prospects in Yukon, Guelph and even elsewhere in BC.
|15 08 07
|The Greens might threaten, but with a base of 30,000+ votes in a traditional NDP riding home to thousands of bureaucrats and academics, the well-oiled NDP machine will take advantage of the deep NDP roots here to deliver another win. A strong second place showing by the Greens is a distinct possibility.
|15 08 07
|Follow The Numbers
|The NDP seem to have regained the lead here and are on the top of the polls in BC, as of this post. Their rise in the polls appears to be coming at the expense of the Conservatives and the Greens and the NDP should hold on here.
|15 08 04
|I know people working on the NDP campaign and their polls show that the Greens are the only real threat to take this from them. However, I don't see the Greens doing as well as they did in the by-election. They don't have a high profile candidate and Rankin now enjoys the advantage of the incumbency, a big factor in Victoria, a city that becomes attached to its MP. Moreover, the heave-Steve constituency will gravitate to the party most likely to keep out the Conservatives. That is clearly the NDP in this riding -- a vote for the Greens in a by-election carries no risk when the Conservative already have a majority; in a general election, the situation is different. Still, I expect this to be close. In Victoria, the Greens have become the party of choice for many right wing voters; I expect virtually all Conservative supporters to vote Green in an effort to keep out Rankin. (In the by-election, the Greens did very well in Ten Mile Point, the Uplands and other wealthy and traditionally Conservative areas.) Add those right-wing voters to the granola crowd, and you could see an upset here.
|15 07 09
|The Greens nearly took Victoria in the by-election, and there was a solid argument to make that by focusing all of their resources in a general election here while the NDP was running everywhere, could finally do it.
Since then the trend has not been good for the Greens. The NDP have soared in the polls, and especially BC now at about 40% average in June (up significantly) compared to 10% for Greens (down significantly).
Due to some major riding redistribution, not all NDP MP's are safe in BC at this point (even while gaining many seats), but this one is unless things change a great deal. If the Green's had previously won the seat it would be a potential loss now, and having missed their best chance, gaining it seems currently out of the question.
With reference to: www.threehundredeight.com/2015/07/june-2015-federal-polling-averages.html
|15 06 21
|Mr. Dave, how do you know that NDP support will remain high until the October election?
If there's one thing we've all learned from recent elections, it's that we can't make predictions about what is going to happen months in advance.
Ridings like this will remain uncertain until the actual election. NDP support is pretty good right now, but it's beginning to taper off again in June 19 EKOS poll, so the Alberta surge may be subsiding.
The Greens still have a chance to win this seat based on organization and strength in this area.
|15 06 08
|If NDP support was down where it was last fall, this riding could be one to go Green.
However, NDP support has jumped since the Alberta election.
It won't be a landslide, but Murray Rankin should be able to keep this one in the NDP column.
|15 06 06
|Given the trends, I'll offer that this will echo the byelection result only insofar as the top two finishers will be NDP and Green. Whether that's Green mounting a stiff and potentially successful challenge a la the byelection, or (in accordance with certain recent Vancouver Island polling) the Greens being atop the LibCon bottom-feeders...we'll see.
|15 05 29
|Threehundredeight.com has been predicting a Green win here for months now, based on their analysis of the polls. They identified Victoria as the #2 target for the Greens (after Elizabeth May's seat) here: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2015/03/the-quest-for-official-party-status.html
This, plus their strong candidate in Roberts, I think Greens have more than a good chance here. Rankin will, of course, be competitive, but I think the Greens will pull this one off.
|15 05 27
|Canadian Election Atlas
|The Liberals are much more popular in BC, and their vote in ridings that have recently gone Liberal will go up quite a bit, and this includes Victoria. Having said that, this Liberal support will eat into the anti-NDP vote that went Green in the by-election. The divided anti-NDP vote should allow the New Democrats to hold onto this seat, even with a reduced vote total.
|15 05 16
|Lots of hype about this riding going Green. More than twice as many voters vote in general elections. Former NDP Denise Savoie got over 30,000 votes in the 2011 election. The Green Party candidate in the last by-election got 13,000 votes. That is a massive gap to close. Murray Rankin is a popular MP and internationally recognized environmentalist. Easy NDP hold.
|15 04 09
|There is a lot of excitement surrounding the Green's campaign, something I have not seen with the NDP's Murray Rankin. Despite his fantastic representation in the House and his rock-solid base, it will not be enough to carry him past the Green's Joanne Roberts. This is considering, especially, the resources and funds the Greens will be pumping into this riding, since it is there best chance at winning a seat.
The Results could look like this:
Joanne Roberts (Green): 36%
Murray Rankin (NDP): 31%
Liberal Candidate: 23%
Others: 2% (Libertarians)
Breaking down the riding further, the North parts of the riding, such as Burnside, Quadra-Hillside, and the parts of the riding lying between Shelbourne Street and the University go NDP, as well as some polls in Downtown and James Bay. The Greens sweep Fernwood, Fairfield, Oaklands,Vic West, and Oak Bay, with the Liberals winning a few polls in the more high-income neighbourhoods (Ten Mile Point, the Uplands, and patches of Oak Bay) and the Conservatives winning one poll, in the Songhees in Vic West.
|15 04 11
|This is one of maybe 5 seats the greens have a shot at in BC, Jo-Ann Roberts is a strong candidate with name recognition and you can bet the Greens will put all the effort they can into giving her the victory.
|15 04 02
|Prior to 2011, the Greens were perceived as a fringe party, with many parking their vote with them between elections. The Greens ran mostly no-name, paper candidates on the ballot. When May won her neighbouring SGI seat in 2011 - no one saw that coming. Many thought it was a fluke.
During the fall, 2012 Victoria federal by-election, the Greens led all night long, as results came in from Elections Canada. No one saw that coming either. Only when the last advance vote poll came in did the NDP go over the top.
And during the 2013 BC provincial election, the Greens achieved surprising popular vote share results in the Greater Victoria area - 40%, 34%, 32%, 23%, 22%, etc. A major surge. With an obscure no-name leader.
And the BC Greens elected their first MLA here, Andrew Weaver,(part of federal Victoria riding) and almost elected a 2nd MLA. More importantly, the highest voter turnouts in BC provincially were in these 2 aforementioned ridings. And May also had the highest voter turnout of any riding in BC back in 2011. Right there the Greens have an apparent electoral bonus. IOW, they also attract voters that normally do not vote.
More importantly, during the November, 2014 municipal elections, the Greens again achieved major victories in Greater Victoria - the Green-backed candidate for Victoria mayor ousted the NDP-backed incumbent. No one saw that coming either. Furthermore, Green-backed mayoral challengers also won in neighbouring Saanich and Central Saanich. And the 2013 BC Green Party candidate also topped council in neighbouring Saanich, etc., etc.
The Greens now have an organized political party machine in Greater Victoria with ground troops. Suspect that they now likely have the best organized party machine in Greater Victoria.
No doubt in my mind that a major generational political shift is occurring in the Greater Victoria area in favour of the Greens as witnessed by relatively recent federal, provincial, and municipal election results.
And the Greens also seem to have the wind in their sails and momentum on Vancouver Island - especially in Greater Victoria. OTOH, the provincial BC NDP seems to be floundering aimlessly and that has always impacted federal NDP results in BC. And Muclair is not a Jack Layton. No momentum thereto.
Finally, the Greens have nominated quite well here - well-known former CBC radio talk show host Jo-Ann Roberts. A star candidate.
The Greens have the stars aligned with them and have all of their ducks lined up in a row. Green win in Victoria in 2015. No doubt.
|15 03 29
|If the Greens pick up a second riding nationally, it will be this one as they did quite well here provincially as well as in the by-election. The NDP should hold its ground amongst civil servants so a lot will depend if many Liberals and especially Tories vote Green to defeat the NDP. If the NDP pulls into second nationally, it wouldn't surprise me if many Tories vote Green to defeat the NDP much as many BC Liberals in Victoria-Beacon Hill voted Greens provincially in the hopes of knocking off the BC NDP candidate.
|15 03 26
|The Greens, nor any party can't run a GOTV campaign in a general election as they did in a by election. All talk, but NDP hold.
|15 03 26
|With Elizabeth May probably being more secure this time in Saanich-Gulf Islands, she probably won't have to be as glued to that riding as she was in 2011. In 2011 she had to devote most of her time to winning a seat in Parliament. With that accomplished, she can probably spend a lot of time outside her own riding, particularly in ridings like Victoria. The Greens have shown that when they target a particular seat with a large number of Green workers, they can sometimes make a breakthrough. They did it with Elizabeth May federally, and with Andrew Weaver provincially (as well as with David Coon down in New Brunswick last year). The NDP can't be written off yet since presumably the close call in the 2012 by-election will wake them up to being less complacent here. Pollster Frank Graves of EKOS says the Greens do have the potential to pick up seats in British Columbia if they can keep their numbers up.
|15 03 23
|If it were just the near loss in the 2012 byelection, I'd say the NDP are still favoured in the general. But there's also Andrew Weaver taking equally from the NDP and BC Liberals to win in Oak Bay-Gordon Head (most of which falls within the Victoria federal riding) in 2013, and Green-backed Lisa Helps beating incumbent NDP mayor Dean Fortin in 2014. Essentially, the Greens have managed to beat the NDP in all parts of the riding since the byelection. The NDP will have it's hands full trying to win/hold Saanich-Esquimalt-Sooke and Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, where the Tories came reasonably close in 2011. If the Greens decide to be bold and assume May needs much less help to hold her sear, they could pour most of their resources into Victoria and win.
|15 03 21
|The Greens will amass by far the largest volunteer force in this riding (with the aid of the thousands who assisted in Elisabeth May's victory next door, in Andrew Weaver's win - whose seat includes part of this riding, and Lisa Helps' upset in ousting a heavily NDP backed Dean Fortin - without even mentioning the 2012 byelection) and benefit from a targeted campaign from the Green war chest that has seen it's donor base grow significantly in recent years thanks largely to Elizabeth May's killer work in the commons. To dismiss the byelection result as a 'one off' is not only naive, it's ignorant of a distinct shift in the region away from the partisan silliness that infects the mainline parties. This will certainly be an interesting and close race - particularly now that the Liberals have surged so far ahead of the NDP both nationally and even provincially. If Elizabeth May gets into the televised debates (which she should and likely will) this seat will be hers to lose. The Green candidate is high profile and well spoken, and as has been stated, this riding has swung all over the place in the past few decades. Denise Savoie would have likely held this seat, but Murray Rankin clearly can't rely on his own tepid popularity to carry this seat (this is not a comment on his work as MP, which has been solid).
The notion that the Green Party should focus only on seats held by Conservative is ridiculous. Here is a seat where the Conservatives have no hope and the Greens are being told to play elsewhere? It is important to remember that the Green Party is the only one suggesting electoral cooperation (other than Dion and the Liberals in '08). If you want Greens to back out of races against progressives either start petitioning your NDP or Liberal cohorts to consider the same, or accept the hypocrisy inherent in your stance.
No question this will be a supremely interesting race, but disregard the Green wave in BC (and particularly Southern Vancouver Island) and you may find yourself rather surprised on election night.
|15 03 19
|In byelections a very different dynamic applies so I don't believe the 2012 result represents a general trend towards the Greens that will hold. But given Andrew Weaver's excellent performance in the BC legislature and the municipal Green presence here, I'm going to be respectful and not just dismiss the Greens.
They do have to break through in at least one other BC seat, if only so their voters can reliably swap around to knock off Conservatives in BC. I thought their biggest target was Vancouver Centre but it seems to be Victoria. Unfortunately, as it really makes far more sense to the long term goals of the Greens to continue knocking off Conservative ministers.
|15 03 18
|There is no mention here of the 2012 byelection that saw a huge surge from the Green Party who nearly took this seat (if there had been any coverage by the media on this leading up to the byelection and if the NDP hadn't conducted an absurd vote splitting fear campaign they likely would have). They won 34% to the NDPs 37%. This should be included not only in your ultimate prediction, but also on your information side bar for consideration. Thanks!
|15 03 18
|Lots of noise about Greens targetting Victoria. It's noise. In the end, the numbers cannot be mustered to throw out an NDP incumbent behind some new Green.
Green voters will, as they usually do, tactically vote (which depresses the numbers we see as final results) or vote swap (preserving the total nationwide vote percentages) or informally swap by going to the polls in mobs led by interest groups to oust Harper. Victoria will be no exception.
Look for the Green breakthrough in Yukon, or for Bruce Hyer to hang on, or for a focused vote swapping effort into a few-voter riding (PEI, Nunuvat, NWT, Yukon, Labrador) to turn it Green, before Victoria has any Green MP.
|15 03 18
|Oh, what a mess this one will be! The Greens nearly won it in a byelection, the Liberals have won it historically, and the NDP are way off their 2011 peak. One of the only parts of the country where there's going to be a three-way progressive fight, and nobody knows how it'll end until the ballots are counted.
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