Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:36:21

Constituency Profile


Atkinson, Melissa

Bagnell, Larry

de Jong, Frank

Leef, Ryan

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (85/85 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Ryan Leef


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15 10 04 Craig Hubley
It appears the Green vote here was for Streiker not the party, and his shift to the Liberals brought a lot of votes there. It's becoming more common to see Green candidates shift to Liberal ranks once they break through, and try to influence that larger party to adopt Green policies.
De Jong's campaign was never a priority for Ottawa HQ and the Environics poll showing Liberals 10 points ahead and Greens at 4% should be enough to convince Yukon Greens that they should call a friend in Fredericton or Guelph and offer their Liberal vote in Yukon for a Green vote in those.
15 09 24 Marco Ricci
The seat projections of both Eric Grenier & Bryan Breguet show this riding going Liberal.
However, because of the isolated nature of the Northern ridings, it's harder to make predictions based on National trends. On paper this riding should theoretically go Liberal, but it also depends on the local factors: who will have the stronger connection here - former Liberal MP Larry Bagnell, or incumbent CPC MP Ryan Leef?
The fact that Harper was up here a few weeks ago probably shows that Conservative numbers are indicating that this is a close race.
I'll leave this as TCTC just to be on the safe side.
15 09 23 DarkFlare
There is a group called 'vote together' paid for local polling (from Environics) in a handful of conservative swing ridings in hopes of eliminating the vote split and some interesting conclusions came out of it.
Yukon's Decided Voters
LIB 39% NDP 29% CPC 27% GRN 4% via http://www.votetogether.ca/pages/localpolling/
Now this is quite fascinating as it shows the vote split is not really a factor here. Now this is only one poll of about 500 people but this is the Yukon, every vote is stronger because of a lower population. If this trend translates to voting day then it will be a liberal pick up. But we do still have to wonder what will happen when decided voters make up their minds.
15 09 20 R.O.
There is far too much vote splitting in this riding for it to be a sure thing for the liberals at this point. I have also yet to see any riding specific polling numbers for the territories. Harper visited the yukon this campaign a sign the conservatives are still campaigning to hold the riding as party leaders often don't even visit this riding. The Yukon has also been a swing riding and Larry Bagnell was mp from 2000-2011 but before him it was ndp. So its not really been a solid liberal riding historically. I also question the suggestion the green vote will go liberal , from my previous experiences the greens take votes from all 3 major parties and how previous green voters will vote is highly unpredictable. Well I personally think Ryan Leaf could hold the riding its likely to close to call at this point
15 09 21 Brian L
Larry Bagnell should regain this riding for the Liberals. The Liberals took it on the chin in the last election, but this time the vote for the other parties won't split as badly as they did in the last election. Bagnell is an known quantity and was a better member than Leef has been. The Liberals will regain their form and Bagnell will win the riding with a sizable plurality.
15 09 19 True North Yukoner
Easy win for Larry and the Liberals (height 30). The Green Party will lose a lot of support as the former candidate, Streiker, is now a Liberal candidate for the Yukon Territorial election. The so called new star candidate for the Greens, DeJong, is invisible and not really known in Yukon. The NDP will do better than last time but will be short in the end. As for Leef and the conservatives, should be able to tap to its core group of die hard right-wingers and get 30% of the vote.
15 09 18 John
My understanding is that, up in the high arctic, party affiliation plays a much smaller role than it does in other parts of the country. The candidate is more important.
Since the incumbent is a Conservative, I'll go out on a limb and suggest this riding will stay Conservative.
15 09 03 QuébecCityOliver
The arrogance of Con supporters is amazing. Never mind that 308 is predicting this as a Liberal win with the Greens running at 21.3% almost tied with the Cons.
However, voters will go with national trends. If the NDP look like they will win the national vote expect them to win this seat too.
Like most seats it is still too early to judge. Also, the North seats are the most susceptible to local candidates influencing voters as shown by Leona.
15 08 17 jeff316
Yowza! the Greens are out in force early. (Usually it is the NDP youth league that spams this website). Just to clear things up though, drop the whole shenanigans schtick. If you knew Frank De Jong like we did from our experience in Ontario, you'd understand that him going off on a canoe trip in the midst of an election is par for the course. An outside running for a fringe party in the Yukon - and an unreliable one at that - he really is not a factor in this race. Frank runs where he can get the most attention, not where is he most electable. Yukon follows the national trends, except that the NDP is a non-entity these days. This will be Conservatives versus Liberals. If the Conservatives win, so will Ryan Leaf, even if he is the weakest parliamentarian in Ottawa - and given the NDP electing kids in Québec, that's an achievement.
15 08 10 Craig Hubley
An article on the Yukon race http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/yukon-candidates-ready-for-another-close-election-1.3178114 raises:
- Former NDP federal leader Audrey McLaughlin is managing Melissa Atkinson's campaign, giving it an experience edge.
- Ryan Leef, Con, thinks he can win by emphasizing 'terrorism'? In Yukon?
- Bagnell talking about empowered Elections Canada and the Parliamentary Budget Office seems weak, but he says he's signed up 2000 members. In Yukon, that's a lot.
- Frank de Jong was on a river trip. While that's not necessarily bad in Yukon (it's amazing who you can meet on river trips, and what you learn), it's not great that he was not able to participate in a rare CBC article. That kind of timing smacks of NDP and Liberal insider influence, frankly.
There's an argument that this will be a closer NDP vs. Liberal race than expected with Leef and De Jong in the second rank. But still TCTC then.
As I raised Miramichi-Grand Lake as a possible Green vote swap target I should note that it's off the table since they nominated a lower profile candidate. That helps De Jong a bit due to focus, but Gord Miller running in Guelph hurts him much. Miller is Elizabeth May's new star candidate. I don't expect a lot of May visits to Yukon. De Jong will have to make the case that the NDP (which now runs Alberta) isn't good for the North, and that is a harder case to make when you miss your first CBC interview.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
Calling this Liberal is premature, and scoffing at the Greens is foolish for this riding in particular. This is the closest four-way race in the country and with fewer than 20,000 voters in 2011, the easiest to swing if voters who have historically supported one party shift significantly to another as a group. Here are four likely shifts:
1. threehundredeight.com shows NDP in a poor third place based on regional polling. A smart NDP voter who wants this seat vulnerable to the NDP in the future, or who could tolerate joining the Greens, should vote Green not Liberal as it's much harder to take a seat from a Liberal once entrenched. Evidence: Bruce Hyer very likely to fall to NDP in Thunder Bay Superior North. If the Greens lose a seat, it's likely an NDP pickup.
2. Conservatives who actually believe in climate change might vote Green again because it's easier to take the seat, but also because the candidate Frank de Jong is well known as promoting very market-friendly policies that shift emphasis towards taxing waste. In the highly subsidized North, these would hardly affect prices, because they won't be allowed to. Also the Conservatives know they can take a Green seat back faster than an NDP or Liberal one. Or de Jong not being from Yukon originally, might leave a lot sooner than another incumbent.
3. Conservative denialists (are there any of these in the North?) should in theory vote Liberal, but given de Jong's libertarian streak, that's a reach. Of all Green federal candidates de Jong is most likely to pull an honest Conservative vote, as he often did when running provincnially in ON.
4. Liberal fortunes have slipped everywhere else in the country but have held steady in the North. If that changes, shifting to Green to take advantage of 1 to 3 makes more sense than shifting NDP and ending up with a tougher incumbent. Liberal and NDP loyalists are both well aware that a Green MP will make a coalition or minority support deal with either party.
Within recent history, the 2004-6 House, confidence rested on one vote (remember Chuck Cadman?) If you're a Liberal, and you know you aren't getting a majority, do you want that resting on an NDPer or on de Jong?
It's the difference between some influence and none.
5. Greens have more than a million people across Canada who voted for them recently, thousands of which participated in formal vote swaps in 2011. Of all parties their supporters are most likely to shift to a leading candidate at the last minute, but also the most likely to ask friends and family and even (the formal swaps) strangers to reciprocate that vote in a riding where Greens can win.
In 2011 that was only Saanich-Gulf Islands. In 2015 it's there, Yukon and Guelph (where they primarily face Liberals), Thunder Bay Superior North and Victoria (where they primarily face NDP), and Miramichi-Grand Lake (where they ran second in some of the provincial NB ridings and are an easier left wing unity sell than the pro-Energy-East Liberals and NDP, and where the incumbent is a Conservative).
A vote swapped into Yukon has 4x the impact of one swapped into the more populous ridings. So it stands to reason that every Green in the country is calling everyone they know in Yukon, including their NDP loyalist friends, and offering votes where the NDP can win, where Liberals are in close races, and so on. Trudeau supporters with no great regard for Bagnell and Mulcair supporters who are rational will realize there is a much higher chance of their party gaining power if they surrender Yukon to get 2000 votes for their own party in close ridings, meaning dozens of seats.
So to predict this TCTC is to predict that Yukon voters are rational and wil respond to the fact that their votes are much more valuable to their parties if swapped elsewhere, and that a Green is less threatening to their long term interests than to commit to either an NDP or Liberal vote.
Especially since NDP and Liberals are both still trying to increase raw bitumen export and set the bad example that will keep melting the north.

15 08 03 MH
If current indications hold, the Conservatives will take 33-34% of the vote nationally. That is unlikely to be enough to form a majority government, but a similar percentage in Yukon matches what the Conservative candidate got in 2011. Depending on how the vote splits this time, any of the three major parties can win this, and the Greens have an outside chance. This seat will pobably be TCTC right up to election day.
15 07 28 Monkey Cheese
Stronger Liberal polling numbers in the North combined with the popular Larry Bagnell as the candidate should bring Yukon back to the Liberals, especially against a weak and invisible backbencher like Ryan Leef.
15 07 16 R.O.
The liberal prediction seems rather premature, Ryan Leaf has been mp for 4 years and I think that is a significant advantage in a riding with a small number of voters like the Yukon, Stephen Harper has also made numerous trips to the far north and focused attention on this part of the country . its true Larry Bagnell was mp for this riding for a number of years but many former mp's have tried and failed to win ridings back . I don't see it being a sure thing for the liberals especially If the ndp vote grows in ridings like this and polls indicate that could happen .
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Ryan Leef won this riding by a small margin. His predecessor as MP, Larry Bagnell, is running again. With the Conservatives down, this riding will likely go Liberal. The wild card is the long gun registry, which is unpopular in Yukon. Trudeau not committing to leave it alone may hurt the Liberal campaign.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
If anything, the Liberals will have more to fear from the Greens than the Conservatives. Bagnell was a popular MP who only lost because of the Ignatieff implosion. What has Ryan Leef done for the riding to earn him re-election? The Liberals will take this one back based on the numbers alone.
15 04 30 Gillian
With the provincial NDP on the rise and likely to form the next Yukon government, the fortunes of the federal NDP bode well should they nominate a star candidate.
15 04 29 Docere
Larry Bagnell lost by about 100 votes in the Iggy debacle, and he is running again, making him the obvious choice for those wanting to defeat the Conservative.
15 03 29 monkey
This riding tends to vote more for the candidate rather than party. Not sure what type of MP Ryan Leef has been but if he has been a good one he should hold this, but if not he might face some difficulties. Also the Liberals choosing Larry Bagnell was smart as he is very well liked here and likely would have held his seat had it not been for the gun registry which was extremely unpopular here. Trudeau's decision to not bring it back also helps too.
15 03 26 A.S.
The critical thing working on the Liberals' behalf is that Larry Bagnell--one of 2011's more conspicuous 'shouldn't have lost but for Iggy' cases--is running again. Though the recent pattern of Green overachievement + Frank De Jong's candidacy does blur the picture--yet keep in mind that the Ontario Greens' post-Y2K successes had more to do with the party's generalized emergence as a virtuous-seeming none-of-the-above ballot-box option than with any particular stellar charisma De Jong brought to the table. Otherwise, as 'provincial leader emeritus', he would have done much better than 2.7% in Davenport in 2011 (and he fared as miserably in a municipal run the year before). Maybe the Yukon hinterland's more his 'comfort zone'; maybe not...
15 03 26 Fairview Resident
Craig has posted a few times about this vote-swapping thing, always viewing it from the perspective of an optimistic Green supporter, and not from the perspective of a centre-left swing voter. The former sees a Green opportunity, the latter sees a vote split with a clear centre-left choice. In the Yukon, why would the latter be motivated to help the opportunistic carpetbagger De Jong when Bagnell, a popular MP who only lost last time by 132 votes, is running for a party that has rebounded significantly since 2011 and has a chance of forming government? If anything, a vote swapping campaign here risks splitting the vote further and reelecting Leef. This all assumes that vote swapping actually works, when it relies entirely on the honour system and can never actually be proven.
However, I don't think that vote swapping will work or that De Jong gives the Green a boost. The Liberals have nearly doubled their support nationwide since 2011. If they enjoy even a fraction of this swing in the Yukon, they'll win it back.
15 03 24 Jack Cox
The Liberals are going to win Yukon, The Nomination meeting they had attracted thousands of people and that may just be enough to swing this to their side.
15 03 24 Travis
With the Liberal party rebounding in public opinion polls it would be seem the numbers favour a Liberal win in the Yukon.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Seems like a Liberal-Conservative race, but look at the Green numbers. This is perceived by Greens as one of their most likely breakthroughs.
Frank De Jong, former leader of the Green Party of Ontario and one of the best and most rugged and tenacious campaigners they have, who focused that party to seek right-wing votes by emphasizing libertarian elements of the Green platform, moved to Yukon and will be the federal Green this election.
Yukon is full of transplants and so not being born there is not as much of a disadvantage as in other Northern ridings. Still, it's a disadvantage.
De Jong's best shot is by recruiting the extremely numerous stranded Green vote swappers (over 1000 at pairvote.ca alone in 2011) who want to swap into a Green target riding, to focus on getting him elected. As the NDP has clearly no chance here, NDP voters may be willing to do those swaps to break a Liberal-Conservative logjam, though de Jong is one of those Greens they are least likely to personally support, strategically, it's a wise move.
NDP and Greens keep climate policy visible, and this matters in the North where transition away from imported diesel is on everyone's agenda, and where pretty much everyone has also seen methane rising from the lakes and tundra, maybe even set it on fire. There are few or no denialists in far Northern ridings.
Ryan Leef (Con) won by only 132 votes in 2011. That makes this one of the prime ridings for vote swapping, especially as it is one of the few small voter numbers ridings (generally, PEI, the far North including Labrador) which can be swung with a well organized phone tree across the country.
He can win, but not without a furious fight. And he'll be fighting more of an ideological and vision battle against Frank de Jong than against the Liberal or NDP platforms.
I call this a Con vs. Green fight. Others who didn't see Frank drag the GPO up by its electoral bootstraps from the 1990s to what it is today, may differ, but I'd advise them to look at the Ontario Greens before Frank, and after Frank, and ask what it will mean to Yukon to get that treatment.

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