Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Cariboo North


Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:21:29
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Incumbent:
Cariboo North
Hon. Coralee Oakes

Reference:
Population (2014):29542
Deviation from average:-44.40%
Geographical Area:38579 sq km
2013 Election Result
Cariboo North
Coralee Oakes
586741.41%
Bob Simpson*
52643716.00%
Duncan Barnett
303621.43%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

17 03 08 South Islander
207.6.126.250
This district was a narrow <4% NDP win in 2005 and 2009. In 2013, a vote split between Simpson and his former party gave it to Oakes by just over 4%. She has been a solid cabinet minister and probably has the advantage given her party's strength in the interior.
17 01 13 BCer
154.5.209.240
Normally this riding is a close-fought battle between the BC Liberals and the NDP, having, since 1991, gone NDP (1991), then BC Liberal (1996), then NDP (2005), then BC Liberal (2013), and with no party winning by a more then 5% margin or so with the exception, of course, of the BC Liberal landslide in 2001.
After NDP incumbent Bob Simpson ran as an Independent and split the left vote in 2013, allowing Coralee Oakes of the BC Liberals to come up the middle and win the seat, many people believed it would only be a matter of time before the NDP came roaring back to take the seat. Simpson seems to have repaired his bonds with the party but is now sitting comfortably as mayor of Quesnel and will not be returning to fight this election.
The NDP have yet to pick a candidate, while Coralee Oakes will fight this one again for the BC Liberals. Normally I would call this a tossup, but due to the lack of organization of the NDP and their mediocre polling numbers in the Interior, I'd call it more a probable BCL seat.



Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster