Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Columbia River-Revelstoke

Prediction Changed
2017-01-21 18:18:44

Constituency Profile



Boyer, Samson

Clovechok, Doug

Hooles, Justin James

Kashuba, Rylan

MacLeod, Duncan Boyd

Taft, Gerry

Columbia River-Revelstoke
Norm Macdonald

Population (2014):31907
Deviation from average:-39.90%
Geographical Area:37704 sq km
2013 Election Result
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Norm Macdonald*
Doug Clovechok
Earl Olsen
Laurel Ralston
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


29/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
I agree with the previous poster; the internal nomination politics of the NDP will cost maybe a couple hundred votes but usually nobody cares about these types of issues unless the candidates are well known quantities (i.e. Harry Lali, where I think the issues will matter). In this case I don't think it will be a big deal and while the loss of Norm Macdonald may also cost the NDP a few votes, I can't see them erasing a 12 point lead that was won with Adrian Dix at the helm. This is likely to be close than last time as an open seat, but the tea leaves are still pointing to an ultimate NDP victory.
29/04/2017 hay sting
Much talk about the local NDP candidate issue, but will it have much traction here? While those dynamics in such places as Cowichan Valley may lead to a much closer and very different outcome, I don't see that happening here. The Green and BCL support is not quite strong enough to climb the hill and knock off the NDP.
12/04/2017 Jacob011
I think that defamation suit will sink the NDP, along with some of the lost votes from the seemingly rigged Candidate selection. It's going to be Doug or maybe Justin if voter unite to keep him put.
17 03 09 South Islander
Whether the defamation suit will hurt the NDP at ll depends on whether voters even know about it or find the claimant sympathetic and I'm not sure they will. If the NDP campaign is a complete disaster and they lose further ground in the interior, the BCL have an outside chance here. But this district has a substantial NDP tilt and Taft is definitely still the favourite at this point.
17 01 20 Jack Cox
This riding for the NDP has seen some internal strife. First over their election equity policy. The current candidate Gerry Taft is being hit with a defamation lawsuit as well. http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/animal-rights-activist-continues-with-defamation-suit-against-bc-ndp-candidate
With incumbent Norm Macdonald not running for the NDP, it's becoming clearer this is one of the few opportunities for pickup by the BC Liberals.
17 01 18 Pundit79
Invermere mayor Gerry Taft will have no trouble holding this seat for the BCNDP after retiring MLA Norm MacDonald won it the last three elections.

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