Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain


Prediction Changed
2017-01-08 23:22:56
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Isaacs, Joan

Incumbent:
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Jodie Wickens

Reference:
Population (2014):59029
Deviation from average:11.10%
Geographical Area:620 sq km
2013 Election Result
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Douglas Horne*
976649.90%
Chris Wilson
731537.37%
Ron Peters
11445.84%
Shane Kennedy
10715.47%
Paul Geddes
2771.42%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

20/03/2017 South Islander
184.69.175.26
There may be demographic changes and transit users as Mr. Prediction mentioned, but residents have been well-served by the government (the Evergreen Line). That's why only last year, they voted against a government 3 years into its 4th straight term by a mere 8% in a byelection. A narrow byelection gain by the opposition never bodes well for their chances of holding in the general.
I mentioned the 2012 Chilliwack-Hope byelection in an earlier post, but neglected to mention the byelection next door in Port Moody-Coquitlam. Trasolini gained the district by 24% and still lost by 2% the following year. One of the reasons for the huge swing compared to 2009 - from a 12% BCL margin for a total swing of 36% - was backlash against the BCLs for Iain Black's opportunistic decision not to complete his term so he could take a position as president and CEO of the Vancouver Board of Trade.
If you also look at the 2008 byelections in Vancouver and compare to the general in 2009, there was a swing back to the BCLs of 13%: from a 10% NDP margin in the byelections in the 2 ridings to 3% BCL margin in the general. Compared to 2005, the NDP had improved their margins in the byelections relative to the BCLs by 14% in Burrard but only 3% in Fairview. The main reason for the difference is that they benefited from 'opportunism backlash' in Burrard - where BCL MLA Mayencourt resigned to seek the CPC nomination - but it worked against them in Fairview - where NDP MLA Robertson left 3-years into his term to seek the mayoralty.
In 2009, the BCL even managed to win Fairview back. Despite McGinn's incumbency, she faced MacDiarmid - who was able to continue campaigning for 7-straight months after the byelection - in the rematch. In this district, Wickens was elected in February 2016, but her opponent Isaacs was renominated the following May and has been campaigning ever since. Incumbency advantage and name recognition don't exactly help when you have such a short term to get anything done before a rematch with an opponent who has been campaigning non-stop since your election.

If the post-byelection swings to the incumbent BCLs were 23% (C-H) and 26% (PM-C) in 2013, and 13% (Van) in 2009 (a swing reduced by 'opportunism backlash' for Robertson's departure) then a byelection win in 2016 by a mere 8% - despite any opportunism backlash for Horne's federal run - looks like a very likely BCL gain in May. After all, this is a district that went BCL by over 20% (with no incumbent) as recently as 2009, and demographic changes don't erase natural partisan tilts that big in under a decade.
17 03 12 Mr Prediction
70.68.212.18
I think a lot of predictions here discount just how much the riding has changed. CQB was created in 2009 and has boomed in population. Lots of transit oriented renters and young families make up the riding. Not at all the case in 2009 and not as much in 2013. The NDP also seem to be increasingly organized since the last provincial and federal election. Add to that an incumbent MLA with some name recognition and you have the possibility of an NDP win.
Ultimately the riding will be a bellwether for whoever forms government. If BC dumps Premier Clark expect this to be one of the ridings part of the NDP's wins.
17 03 09 South Islander
184.71.12.34
This is naturally a solid BCL seat (21% margin in 2009; 13% in 2013) that went NDP in a byelection a year ago. A 15-year incumbent government losing a seat by only 8% in a byelection isn't exactly a bad sign for the BCL though. In a 2012 byelection, the NDP picked up Chilliwack-Hope - which had gone BCL by 20% in the 2009 general - by 10%. They still lost it in the 2013 general by 13%. I doubt the NDP will do well enough during the campaign to hang on here.
17 02 25 T.C.
64.180.240.11
The BC NDP won this riding in February, 2016 during a by-election, which saw just 20% voter turnout - the lowest by-election turnout in decades. The BC NDP won this seat by 633 votes while ~12,000 2013 voters stayed home.
The riding caan be broken down, generally speaking, into 3 areas:
1. Westwood Plateau - mostly upper-middle class single family dwellings. The BC Liberals won the vast amount of polling stations here in 2013.
2. Coquitlam Town Centre - older area with a mix of BC Liberal and BC NDP polling station wins here in 2013. More importantly, a major building boom is occurring here in terms of new condo tower developments. These are owner-occupiers who trend BC Liberal in their voting intentions and located where BC Liberals won 2013 polling stations.
3. Burke Montaain - a relatively new area experiencing a building boom in terms of both single-family dwellings and townhouses. The BC Liberals won all polling stations here in 2013.
The recent Stats Can census numbers released confirm that Coquitlam had the 3rd highest population growth rate at 9.8% (after Langley and Surrey). Most of the population increase in Coquitlam can be attributed to the condo tower construction in the Coquitlam Town Centre and SFDs/townhouses on Burke Mountain. Again, this trend favours the BC Liberals.
During the 2013 election, the BC Liberals won this riding by a 12.5% margin. Moreover, the BCCP, which is now leaderless and insolvent likely won't be running candidates, if any, in 2017. The BCCP candidate here won 5.5% in 2013, which should provide the BC Liberals with an extra cushion.
All demographic and historic voting patterns in this riding indicate a somewhat safe BC Liberal win in 2017.
17 01 07 Brian J
64.114.70.133
Will byelection winner Jodie Wickens get re-elected in May? It's a tough one as this seat has NEVER voted NDP before, but now Jodie is the incumbent. A lot will depend on how Clark is doing provincially, but I got to go with historical results and say the Liberals will snag this seat back.



Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster