Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Cowichan Valley

Prediction Changed
2017-01-14 13:58:24

Constituency Profile



Anderson, James

Furstenau, Sonia

Haythornthwaite, Eden

Housser, Steve

Iannidinardo, Lori

Morrison, Ian

Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley

Population (2014):59232
Deviation from average:11.50%
Geographical Area:1685 sq km
2013 Election Result
Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley*
Steve Housser
Kerry Davis
Damir Wallener
Heather Alanna Campbell
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


18/04/2017 political fox
if the latest Mainstreet poll and the recent polling trend is any indication I predict the NDP candidate holding this riding for her party. The liberal support on the Island is sinking to the advantage of the Greens but the green support is the softest and their soft supports are more likely to switch to the NDP to keep the liberals out than vice versa.
15/04/2017 South Islander
The way things stand now, I actually have to think that Furstenau will pick up this riding. The Greens are competing for first place on the Island, and this was one of their better results in 2013 when they finished 3rd on the island 44/34/17. Even with an incumbent, the NDP won only 40% last time. This time, the seat is open and there will be a vote split between former NDP EDA president Morrison running as an independent and the NDP candidate Iannidinardo. The NDP actually appear to be the least likely winners here of the major parties. The BCLs see an opportunity given their solid finish, but they are ultimately trying to maximize turnout among their supporters rather than competing for support. Furstenau is well known among locals, especially Shawnigan Lake area, residents as a local director and environmental activist. The Greens will devote resources here to overtake their divided NDP opponents. If they can maintain or build on their Island support, they win here; if they bleed support, the BCLs win; if they collapse completely, the NDP may have a shot.
17 03 12 North Islander
A very strong candidate with great name recognition, plus infighting within the NDP which has led to a rejected candidate running as an independent will all be contributing factors in a BC Liberal win in the Valley! A solid green candidate doesn't help the NDP much either!
17 03 09 South Islander
The NDP held this with barely 40% in 2013 despite having an incumbent. They also only held Cowichan?Malahat?Langford during the federal election with 36%, down from 44% (redistributed) in 2011. With the NDP having no incumbent and campaign problems, the BCL renominating their candidate who came relatively close in 2013, and the Greens surging on the South Island, this seat is up for grabs.
17 02 05 Island Resident
The Greens have a popular respected candidate in Sonia, with no incumbent, the Greens may have the edge, although it will be close with the NDP. The Liberals will do poorly in the riding considering the Shawnigan dump and the Saanich Inlet LNG.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
The NDP CA president Ian Morrison has resigned his position and is planning on running as an independent

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