Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Cowichan Valley

Prediction Changed
2017-01-14 13:58:24

Constituency Profile



Anderson, James Robert

Haythornthwaite, Eden

Housser, Steve

Iannidinardo, Lori Lynn

Morrison, Ian

Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley

Population (2014):59232
Deviation from average:11.50%
Geographical Area:1685 sq km
2013 Election Result
Cowichan Valley
Bill Routley*
Steve Housser
Kerry Davis
Damir Wallener
Heather Alanna Campbell
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 03 12 North Islander
A very strong candidate with great name recognition, plus infighting within the NDP which has led to a rejected candidate running as an independent will all be contributing factors in a BC Liberal win in the Valley! A solid green candidate doesn't help the NDP much either!
17 03 09 South Islander
The NDP held this with barely 40% in 2013 despite having an incumbent. They also only held Cowichan?Malahat?Langford during the federal election with 36%, down from 44% (redistributed) in 2011. With the NDP having no incumbent and campaign problems, the BCL renominating their candidate who came relatively close in 2013, and the Greens surging on the South Island, this seat is up for grabs.
17 02 05 Island Resident
The Greens have a popular respected candidate in Sonia, with no incumbent, the Greens may have the edge, although it will be close with the NDP. The Liberals will do poorly in the riding considering the Shawnigan dump and the Saanich Inlet LNG.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
The NDP CA president Ian Morrison has resigned his position and is planning on running as an independent

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