Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-05-07 13:18:10

Constituency Profile



Dean, Mitzi Jayne

Desjardins, Barb

MacKinnon, Andy

Martay, Delmar

Steffler, Josh

Strandlund, Tyson Riel

Esquimalt-Royal Roads
Maurine Karagianis

Population (2014):51450
Deviation from average:-3.10%
Geographical Area:378 sq km
2013 Election Result
Esquimalt-Royal Roads
Maurine Karagianis*
Chris Ricketts
Susan Christina Low
Joshua Steffler
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


07/05/2017 Mark the Lark
With even NDP supporters conceding a three-horse race, the recent Vancouver Province article by Mike Smythe pointing towards how the NDP is conceding southern Vancouver Island, and recent polls in this riding showing the Greens in front, this will most likely become Weaver's Greens 4th seat.
Watch traditional soft BC Liberal supporters vote Green to block the NDP, and soft NDP votes to do the same to block the Liberals.
07/05/2017 Ron Victoria
The Greens are overestimated here.
I don't think they will have a great breakthrough; they will pick up maybe one seat but this one is not it. It's like Elizabeth May all over again.
NDP easy hold.
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
This is very difficult riding to predict, and I think it might be a three-way race. In the end, I suspect Mitzi Dean will come out on top with both the Liberals and Greens not far behind.
05/05/2017 South Islander
Justason just released a mixed online/IVR poll with a healthy sample size of 2,116 province-wide. It puts the Greens ahead in the CRD by 4 (40 to 36). Despite the small subsample, this is still consistent previous Justason poll had the NDP ahead by 3 (37 to 34), and the general Green momentum. Ahead or tied in the CRD, the Greens will win OBGH, Saanich North and at least one more. NDP would have to have amazing vote efficiency to win 5/7 without the lead or where the Greens are that close. Since Beacon Hill, Swan Lake, Saanich South and Langford-JDF are all called for the NDP (I'm not sure I agree with these calls), then the open Esquimalt-Metchosin - where the Green candidate is higher profile than the NDP candidate - is likely the other Green district.
02/05/2017 Bernard
Changes from 2013:
The riding is slightly more Liberal than NDP with the loss of the Vic West and the addition of Metchosin
The Liberals have a strong candidate and so do the NDP. The Green candidate has a much less active campaign in 2017 than Susan Low had in 2013.
02/05/2017 JoshMartini007
If the Greens are to gain official party status it will likely be due to this riding. With non-mainstreet polls showing less support for the Greens on the island relative to the NDP I'm not convinced this riding should be called for the Greens. Especially with Cowichan Valley still TCTC.
Way too soon to be calling this Green. Oakbay and Sanich North are looking to go to the Greens but this will be a much, much harder win.
You have to account for the Green support being flaky and the Greens on the ground infrastructure and overall campaign just not being anywhere near the NDP's. And it's not a knock at the Greens. It's just that it's a newer party trying to break on to the scene. It's to be expected.
This riding is too close to call at the moment. If the Greens dip at all on the island this will go to the NDP.
29/04/2017 hay sting
As with a number of south island ridings, this one will go down to the wire on May 9. I have predicted a few ridings going to the Green Party in the region, but I don't think they can't quite climb the hill enough to take Esquimalt. It may stay NDP, but only just by a nose.
20/04/2017 South Islander
An open seat on the Island with a BCL candidate who is an incumbent mayor and has cross-party appeal would normally just look like a reduced NDP margin. With the Greens ahead on the Island and polling at more than double their 2013 Island vote share (while the NDP is down 10%), an open seat in Greater Victoria where the Greens finished with 21% last time looks to me like a Green gain. At current Green support levels, they simply have to win a handful of seats. Their gains won't be obvious or even seem likely at all based on prior results - they will just be the least implausible ones. I actually wouldn't be surprised to see the BCL, NDP and Greens finish in any order here. MacKinnon is a Metchosin municipal councilor but doesn't have Desjardins' recognition; Dean is solid, but much lower profile. My money would be on Desjardins' popularity to put her in 2nd place ahead of Dean.
16/04/2017 Pundit79
Drove around the riding today and the BCNDP's Mitzi Dean definitely has most signs on private properties so far. But all and all I believe the BCNDP will hold this one.
23/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Easy NDP hold. Greens are almost challenging BC Liberals for 2nd place across the island. NDP landslide across island.
17 03 07 South Islander
This riding has a significant natural NDP tilt. But with no incumbent, a popular mayor as the BC Liberal candidate, the Green strength on the South Island, I could easily see this one going Liberal or even Green.
17 02 23 BCer
Esquimalt-Metchosin has traditionally been a very strong riding for the NDP. The NDP dominates most areas of this riding, but does especially well in the more lower income areas of the fairly urban Esquimalt. The BCL has some support on the semi-rural/suburban West Shore, and does particularly well in the new Royal Bay suburbs of Metchosin. It also has some support near the Esquimalt Dockyards, which are home to many military families.
Incumbent three-term NDPer Maurine Karagianis has decided to retire. The NDP have nominated Mitzi Dean, who is the executive director of the Pacific Centre for Family Services, a social services-based organization. This is a fairly low-profile pick for them, considering the large number of affiliated local government officials they could have picked from in the area.
The BC Liberals have nominated Barb Desjardins, who is the popular mayor of Esquimalt. This was considered a pretty great recruitment for them. The Greens have not yet nominated a candidate, but did well here in 2013 with candidate Susan Low. Low is now a councillor in Esquimalt.
Due to the candidates picked by both parties and potential vote-splitting on the left, I think the BCL will pick up this seat by a very slim margin. The result will likely mean Barb Desjardins will serve in cabinet
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
It would take a very strong candidate from the Liberals for the NDP to lose this seat

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