Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-14 13:58:50

Constituency Profile



Green, Arthur Alexander

Tegart, Jackie L.

Jackie Tegart

Population (2014):34034
Deviation from average:-35.90%
Geographical Area:34830 sq km
2013 Election Result
Jackie Tegart
Harry Lali*
John Kidder
Michael Beauclair
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 03 07 South Islander
NDP nomination disputes are front and centre. Horgan is trying to pave the way for Lower Nicola Band Chief Aaron Sam against a 16-year former incumbent Harry Lali. No matter who ends up as the NDP candidate, the well will be poisoned. The NDP have also reaffirmed their opposition to pipelines, which won't help them win this one back.
17 01 13 BCer
This was a surprise pick-up for the BC Liberals in 2013, with municipal councillor Jackie Tegart defeating long-time NDP incumbent (and former leadership contender) Harry Lali, who had represented the riding for 18 years (2005-2013, 1991-2001). Despite this record, Lali never won the seat by more than 10% and it was always viewed as one that could swing.
Since 2013Tegaart has proved to be a strong caucus performer, and should she win again, will has a very strong chance of being appointed to cabinet. Tegart is running again, although who she faces is the real question.
Lali is indeed back, running for the NDP nomination against Aaron Sam, a local First Nations chief. My suspicion is that Sam would perform better in the provincial election then Lali would, and many NDPers know that Lali's time has passed. Still, machine politics in nominations are hard to predict, so either could end up as candidate.
Also running is Arthur Green for the BC Green Party. The Greens have performed relatively well here in the past, consistently hitting around 8-10%. Green is also an experienced campaigner, having run in the last federal election. With the Greens up province wide, expect to see them preform strongly here, perhaps even getting 20% or so.
However, they will not win. Tegart will most likely be re-elected, but if Sam is the candidate and the NDP win government, this could be one of the first seats to go there way of the night. Still, a likely BCL Hold.

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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
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