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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Kamloops-North Thompson


Prediction Changed
2017-04-30 10:54:36
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Hines, Dan

Kerek, Peter Paul

Milobar, Peter Gordon

Nederpel, Barb

Incumbent:
Kamloops-North Thompson
Hon. Dr. Terry Lake

Reference:
Population (2014):54014
Deviation from average:1.70%
Geographical Area:21642 sq km
2013 Election Result
Kamloops-North Thompson
Terry Lake*
1218352.06%
Kathy Kendall
913939.05%
Ed Klop
16447.03%
John Ford
4361.86%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

29/04/2017 South Islander
207.6.126.250
Recent poll by Justason has Milobar ahead by 16%. Despite the small sample size, that lead is outside the margin of error.
http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5102
29/04/2017 Ron Victoria
50.64.108.4
This is a 'must win' seat for the BC Liberals and I am going to give it to them in light of the strong candidate they have.
They are correctly pouring in their resources here which is strategically a good idea.
Milobar is exactly the type of candidate that the BC Liberals need more of: populist, competent but not tainted by years of power.
Even if the BC Liberals go down to defeat, the candidate will be a nucleus for a strong renewal. If they win, he will be cabinet material.
29/04/2017 T.C.
64.180.240.11
First riding poll of the entire BC campaign, in this riding, by Justason Market Intelligence:
BC Liberal: 47%
BC NDP: 31%
BC Green: 15%
https://armchairmayor.ca/2017/04/28/election-poll-shows-milobar-ahead-doctor-shortage-biggest-issue/
16/04/2017 South Islander
207.6.126.250
To me, this provincial election looks a lot like 1986 - the NDP have a polling lead and a decent but uncharismatic leader who lacks political instinct facing an extremely charismatic and photogenic incumbent who understands the game. 2013 was also similar, but Dix probably had a worse ethical record (back-dated memo). What the polls didn't show is that the critical undecided voters were mostly the "10-second SoCreds" who vote for the non-NDP option when they think an NDP government is possible. Since the 2001 meltdown, the NDP have consistently won between 9,100 and 9,700 votes here (trending downward). Their base turns out consistently. The BCL also have a base that will also turn out no matter what, but the margins are really determined by how many of the 10-second SoCreds show up. In 2005, polls consistently showed a comfortable BCL win and many of them stayed home or voted Conservative. In 2009, they simply weren't worried about an NDP government - the BCL were again consistently ahead and the election looked like a repeat of 2005 - it was, but with lower turnout province-wide and here especially, and that's when the NDP nearly won. With the NDP leading in 2013, everyone assumed districts like these would likely go NDP because they had such a huge polling lead. Everyone had forgotten who most of the undecideds actually were because the 10-second SoCred effect hadn't been observed since the 1980s. But they showed up and gave Lake his comfortable 13% margin. With the NDP polling slightly ahead province-wide but weaker in the interior, those voters will be sure to show up and allow the BCL to carry districts like these. For voters needing to hold their noses, Mayor Milobar and the lack of Conservative candidate makes a rationalization for once again electing a BCL that much easier. The biggest danger for the BCLs here and elsewhere is that 10-second SoCreds will all assume the polls are wrong and believe that a BCL win is inevitable.
23/03/2017 Crystal Ball
70.79.196.133
Voter fatigue with BC Liberals could turn this NDP. Anger over hospital issues may be tipping point.
17 03 07 South Islander
184.71.12.34
In 2009, the BC Liberals held this riding with 1-term former Kamloops mayor Terry Lake by a tiny 2% margin. He held it by 13% in 2013 when he was expected to lose. The seat is open again, but the candidate is incumbent Kamloops Mayor Peter Milobar, currently serving his 3rd term, who won his most recent election with over 78% of the vote! The NDP won't carry this riding unless they manage to win in a landslide - Given that they are only polling in the 30s two months before an election, I don't see that happening.
17 02 01 BCer
154.5.209.240
Kamloops-North Thompson is very much a typical battleground riding. Between the two Kamloops ridings, this is certainly the more competitive one, but not to the same level as the close-fought races in suburban Vancouver or the Island, for example. With incumbent BC Liberal (and Health Minister) Terry Lake retiring, this seat should have become a lot more competitive. The NDP's chosen candidate, Barbara Nederpel, comes from the Nurse's Union (As provincial VP) and, while typical NDP stock, is still a pretty good pick for them. However, Kamloops Mayor Peter Milobar opted to run for the BC Liberals in this riding. I think this should be what allows the BCL to win the riding. The Greens also announced their candidate here very early. Dan Hines is an Anglican priest and local activist. Although the Greens tend to get about 5 to 10% in this riding, I think we'll see a stronger showing this time.
My Prediction:
CL: 46%
NDP: 33
Greeen: 16%
Other:5%%
17 01 14 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
Terry Lake isn't running again here in this seat and it's a much more friendlier seat for the NDP then the adjacent seat I think this will come down to the wire.



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