Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Kamloops-North Thompson

Prediction Changed
2017-03-08 21:50:49

Constituency Profile



Nederpel, Barb

Kamloops-North Thompson
Hon. Dr. Terry Lake

Population (2014):54014
Deviation from average:1.70%
Geographical Area:21642 sq km
2013 Election Result
Kamloops-North Thompson
Terry Lake*
Kathy Kendall
Ed Klop
John Ford
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


23/03/2017 Crystal Ball
Voter fatigue with BC Liberals could turn this NDP. Anger over hospital issues may be tipping point.
17 03 07 South Islander
In 2009, the BC Liberals held this riding with 1-term former Kamloops mayor Terry Lake by a tiny 2% margin. He held it by 13% in 2013 when he was expected to lose. The seat is open again, but the candidate is incumbent Kamloops Mayor Peter Milobar, currently serving his 3rd term, who won his most recent election with over 78% of the vote! The NDP won't carry this riding unless they manage to win in a landslide - Given that they are only polling in the 30s two months before an election, I don't see that happening.
17 02 01 BCer
Kamloops-North Thompson is very much a typical battleground riding. Between the two Kamloops ridings, this is certainly the more competitive one, but not to the same level as the close-fought races in suburban Vancouver or the Island, for example. With incumbent BC Liberal (and Health Minister) Terry Lake retiring, this seat should have become a lot more competitive. The NDP's chosen candidate, Barbara Nederpel, comes from the Nurse's Union (As provincial VP) and, while typical NDP stock, is still a pretty good pick for them. However, Kamloops Mayor Peter Milobar opted to run for the BC Liberals in this riding. I think this should be what allows the BCL to win the riding. The Greens also announced their candidate here very early. Dan Hines is an Anglican priest and local activist. Although the Greens tend to get about 5 to 10% in this riding, I think we'll see a stronger showing this time.
My Prediction:
CL: 46%
NDP: 33
Greeen: 16%
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Terry Lake isn't running again here in this seat and it's a much more friendlier seat for the NDP then the adjacent seat I think this will come down to the wire.

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