Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Langford-Juan de Fuca

Prediction Changed
2017-01-08 23:22:13

Constituency Profile



Burton, Scott

Horgan, John

Nelson, Willie

Noel, Cathy

Ralfs, Brendan

Juan de Fuca
John Horgan

Population (2014):51782
Deviation from average:-2.50%
Geographical Area:2447 sq km
2013 Election Result
Juan de Fuca
John Horgan*
Kerrie Reay
Carlos Serra
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Even with the Green surge on the Island, Horgan should easily hold his seat. The real question is will he become premier or remain leader of the opposition. Also if he loses does he stay on as MLA as Carole James and Adrian Dix have and hope to be a cabinet minister in some future NDP government or does he step down?
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
Easy re-election for Horgan here.
21/04/2017 South Islander
If Horgan behaves in the main televised debate like he did in the News 1130 debate, he could actually lose his seat. The South Island Green surge alone won't be enough to overcome the margins of a popular MLA and party leader, but combined with shameful displays of boorishness in front of the entire province, it just might.
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
As far as I know, only Christy Clark and Ujjal Dosanjh have the dubious distinction of being party leaders (of main parties) not to win their seats on election day going back even into the 1960's. Even Skelly in '86, Johnston in '91 and Wilson & Weisgerber in '96 were able to win theirs. This has been a solid NDP riding for decades and no chance Horgan could lose it.
17 03 07 South Islander
Horgan has managed to build a strong base of support in this naturally NDP riding. Only a complete implosion could cost him this district.
17 03 13 joe s
John Horgan will win his seat. He will also lose the provincial election. He will also resign as B.C. NDP leader to join Carole James and Adrian Dix. David Eby will become B.C. NDP opposition leader. The NDP is dead right across the country. B.C. NDP voters listen to the song, FOOLS RUSH IN, by Ricky Nelson. B.C. Liberal voters listen to the song, WHY THROW IT ALL AWAY, by Andy Gibb. Some say that the NDP deserves another chance at government. These that say this are two faced because they would never take back a spouse from a previous divorce to re-create the nightmare.
17 01 07 Jack Cox
Horgan will easily hold his own seat, whether he becomes Premier is a whole other question.

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