Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-01-11 21:03:15

Constituency Profile



Gaudet, Paris

Harris, Kathleen

Krog, Leonard

Walker, Bill

Leonard Eugene Krog

Population (2014):57008
Deviation from average:7.30%
Geographical Area:458 sq km
2013 Election Result
Leonard Eugene Krog*
Walter Douglas Anderson
Ian Elliott Gartshore
Bryce Nelson Crigger
Brunie Brunie
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
With the re-distribution this is a lot more competitive than it was under the old boundaries. Although Nanaimo tilts NDP, there is a strong north-south split with the north side leaning more to the right and the south side more to the left as the North side has more seniors and is more affluent while south side is more union-blue collar. The real wild card is how well the Greens do who will hurt the NDP more than BC Liberals although hurt both a bit. If the Greens get above 25%, Krog will lose his seat, 20-25% could go either way, while if they stay below 20% he will probably hold his riding.
07/05/2017 Mark the Lark
If Leonard wins as expected, and the NDP pull a win province-wide, he'll finally get that cabinet appointment he's been hoping for since the 90's as the new Attorney-General.
This will be his last run if the NDP lose the election (riding or government) and a new young woman will take his place as per NDP policy.
On this will definitely be his lowest performance while still winning, as he has been on a downward trend for years with his electoral support.
An upset would be a Green win, as the Liberals under Christy Clark are not popular here and many younger Federal Liberals are supporting the Greens this time around.
23/04/2017 Another Islander
There has only been two elections in the last fifty years where Nanaimo has not voted NDP - the first one in 1972 when legendary mayor Frank Ney ran for Social Credit, and the other one in 2001 when the NDP were almost shut out of the legislature. While election results from as long ago as the 70s aren't really a factor nowadays, this district obviously leans towards the NDP, and when it elects someone else, there is a substantial reason for it. Perhaps the biggest threat to Leonard Krog is the growing strength of the Greens on Vancouver Island. However, much of this appears to be concentrated around Victoria. If the Greens do somehow manage to get more momentum further north up the Island, but not enough to win this seat, I find the scenario of the Liberal candidate winning off of an NDP/Green split to be unlikely, as that would also likely drag some of the Liberal vote down with it as well.
I don't really see any reason for the Liberals to gain a whole lot here this time around. Unless I am seriously underestimating Paris Gaudet's strength as a candidate, or if the Greens start making more ground north of Cowichan Valley, I don't think Krog is in any serious danger of losing his seat.
17 03 09 South Islander
Leonard Krog's margin seems to keep shrinking. The demographics of North Nanaimo are changing in the BCL's favour. If the Greens and BCL both apply pressure and the NDP campaign goes badly, Krog could be a casualty.
17 01 09 Brian J
Nanaimo needs to be in the NDP column now; the federal party fell apart in 2015 but the Island is one of the places where they actually improved. Vancouver Island has a very significant NDP base and every existing seat here should be assumed to be a hold for Team Horgan.

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