Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

North Island

Prediction Changed
2017-01-26 22:39:50

Constituency Profile



Trevena, Claire Felicity

North Island
Claire Trevena

Population (2014):55633
Deviation from average:4.70%
Geographical Area:45034 sq km
2013 Election Result
North Island
Claire Felicity Trevena*
Nick Facey
Bob Bray
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 03 11 T.C.
2013 transposed result for North Island:
BC NDP: 50.7%
BC Lib: 42.2%
CCP: 7.1%
The BCCP is currently leaderless, insolvent, consumed with in-fighting and has no candidates. Assuming that the 7.1% BCCP vote would have gone BC Liberal in 2013, the BC NDP would have won this seat by a slim 1.4% over the BC Liberals.
Moreover the BC Greens did not run here in 2013 while they have nominated Sue Moen to run here in 2017. A typical rule of thumb is that the BC Greens take 3 votes from the BC NDP for every 2 votes from the BC Liberals.
North Island is also interesting in that a large resource development base is extant in terms of forestry and some mining. In addition, it also is continuing to witness an influx of Albertan retirees that extends from northern Nanaimo right up to Campbell River.
The BC NDP has always done well here due to the fact that a larger First Nations vote exists here that always votes heavily NDP. Again, both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat and the BC Libs have come out early nominating Dallas Smith who is the local high profile president of the First Nation Nanwakolas Tribal Council.
Right now I believe the riding of North Island to be in the toss-up category..
17 03 09 South Islander
Trevena's margin shrank in 2013 but only from 13% to 8%. With an open seat in Comox, I don't think the BCL will make a play for the North Island unless their campaign starts off extremely strong. Even then, it would be a tough gain.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
This area outside of 2001 has always been traditional NDP territory, Claire Trevena's seat isn't safe by any means but it generally leans towards the NDP, if the polls move towards the BC Liberals they could win this but likely Trevena is going to be going back to Victoria.
17 01 21 Pundit79
Claire Trevena has won this riding for the BCNDP the three elections and no reason to think she won't this time around.

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