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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Peace River North


Prediction Changed
2017-01-17 20:23:37
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Davies, Dan

Dempsey, Rob

Fedderly, Bob

Fraser, Rob

Richert, Jeff

Incumbent:
Peace River North
Pat Pimm

Reference:
Population (2014):43263
Deviation from average:-18.60%
Geographical Area:175813 sq km
2013 Election Result
Peace River North
Pat Pimm*
790558.94%
Arthur Austin Hadland
328724.51%
Judy Ann Fox-McGuire
13199.84%
Wyeth Sigurdson
9006.71%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

20/04/2017 JoshMartini007
128.189.238.84
If an independent is going to win in this province it will likely come in this riding. Fedderly has recently released the results of a poll in the region done by a phone polling company where 45% of respondents indicated they would vote independent, 30% would vote Liberal and 25% would vote NDP/Green/Conservative combined. Sadly respondents did not indicate which of the three independents they would vote for and with the Greens and Conservatives not running a portion of that 25% will be reallocated. I’d argue that the Liberals are the favourites now, but this could be a riding to watch out for.
09/04/2017 South Islander
207.6.126.250
It's been about a month since my prediction that the BC Conservatives would win here. They're still at double digits in the polls, but only have 7 candidates nominated. In 7 more, they have 'interview[s] being scheduled'; in 4 more, 'recruitment [is] underway'; and in 1 more, 'fee and bond received'. That's 19 districts where they have any activity to speak of (out of 87, or 22%), and none of them are the Peace River districts. And they still have no leader. In 2013, they ran 56 candidates (of 85 or 66%), they similarly polled at 11-13% at the start of the campaign, had a long-time former MP as a leader (who made it to the televised debate stage), and still only managed 4.8%. If I knew the party would struggle, but I thought they would get it together and could pull it off here. There are now only 2 days before the writ drops and 9 days before candidate nominations close, and I'm not even confident that they will have a candidate here. If they do, it's hard to believe that they could make a serious play.
17 03 08 South Islander
184.71.12.34
Conservative voters in the PR districts are the most likely to elect an MLA to the right of the government. Although booted from caucus, the incumbent was still an embarrassment for the BC Liberals in this riding. If the BC Conservatives can hold onto half of their current double-digit support, it will be concentrated enough that I think they would win here.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
Rural BC for the most part tends to vote like Rural Alberta it goes for the more right leaning party and here it's the BC Liberals.



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