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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Penticton


Prediction Changed
2017-02-25 13:24:11
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Ashton, Dan

Sayeed, Tarik

Incumbent:
Penticton
Dan Ashton

Reference:
Population (2014):56722
Deviation from average:6.80%
Geographical Area:1908 sq km
2013 Election Result
Penticton
Dan Ashton
1153645.85%
Richard James Cannings
1015440.35%
Sean Upshaw
22889.09%
Doug Maxwell
11854.71%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

17 02 24 Bernard von Schulmann
154.5.204.84
The last time the NDP won Penticton was in 1991 when there was a very tight three way split between the NDP, Liberals and Socred. There is no reason to think the Liberals will lose the seat this time
17 02 08 T.C.
64.180.240.11
In 2013, a strong right-wing vote existed in the Penticton riding in terms of the BCCP (9.25%) and BC First (4.62%) for a total of 13.87%. With the BCCP implosion and BC First unlikely to run a candidate here again in 2017, that combined ~14% right-wing vote from 2013 will likely flow to the BC Liberals in 2017.
OTOH in 2009, the BC Greens ran a candidate in the Penticton riding and obtained 15.7%. In 2013, the BC Greens did not run a candidate here and the BC NDP received, prima facie, 9.2%/15.7% of that 2009 BC Green vote. The Weaver-led Greens will run candidates in 87/87 ridings including Penticton, which will likely result in much of that 9.2% popular vote share moving from the BC NDP back to the BC Greens.
Reading the entries here, Penticton should be an easy hold for the BC Liberals
17 01 27 Pundit79
142.30.110.217
Status quo for this pretty conservative riding.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
While this was a closer race last time, I would chalk it up to Dan Ashton not being the incumbent here, the seat has voted for the NDP in the past however under numerous other iterations, this might be close,



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