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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Penticton


Prediction Changed
2017-04-13 18:10:59
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Ashton, Dan

Sahlmark, Connie

Sayeed, Tarik

Incumbent:
Penticton
Dan Ashton

Reference:
Population (2014):56722
Deviation from average:6.80%
Geographical Area:1908 sq km
2013 Election Result
Penticton
Dan Ashton
1153645.85%
Richard James Cannings
1015440.35%
Sean Upshaw
22889.09%
Doug Maxwell
11854.71%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

29/04/2017 hay sting
24.85.198.4
While the pundits claim the NDP must win this to form government, there are some intriguing other possibilities that may emerge on May 9. I think the urban/rural+smaller town divide will be entrenched yet further at the election.
The NDP candidate does not seem to have quite as much of a profile as Cannings in 2013. This could be a very tight 3 way race, but I think the former Penticton mayor/Lib candidate will emerge the winner. Again.
26/04/2017 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
NDP is leading by ten percent in the province according to mainstreet research. This would be one of the seats that would easily change hands.
25/04/2017 Connie
24.67.21.167
The local NDP had a very bitter nomination battle that has resulted in many refusing to vote for Tarik, who is also a member of an extremely unpopular City council. Ashton has delivered on his many campaign promises including a new hospital project. Add in a Green Party candidate this time around and no BC Conservative candidate and this one will go to Ashton.
14/04/2017 South Islander
207.6.126.250
Last election, the NDP had a star candidate (who is now an MP) for this open seat. The BCLs now have incumbency advantage and face a lower profile NDP candidate. Regardless of who's ahead province-wide, the NDP aren't doing any better in the interior - polls put the BCL ahead by between 5% and 19%, with many still tentatively intending to vote for the broke, leaderless and mostly candidate-less Conservatives. This does not bode well for the NDP. Most importantly, the Greens have a candidate in this district but not the Conservatives (unless they can find someone over the long weekend), and there is no centrist "BC First" candidate (who won nearly 5% last time). With a single centre-right candidate and two centre-left candidates, I can't see the NDP closing the gap against an incumbent in an interior seat.
26/03/2017 Physastr Master
154.20.91.151
This would have been the tipping point for the NDP last election if they were to form government. Yes, Richard Cannings' strong campaign may have affected that along with the Greens' absence, but Cannings is now Penticton's federal MP, so there is certainly still room for the NDP to move in here. Even the cons are looking stronger than last year (although granted that will likely come back down to around 5% by election time like in 2013). I expect Penticton to go with the Government, which is currently the NDP. Yes, polls could change, and that is why it should be TCTC for now.
17 02 24 Bernard von Schulmann
154.5.204.84
The last time the NDP won Penticton was in 1991 when there was a very tight three way split between the NDP, Liberals and Socred. There is no reason to think the Liberals will lose the seat this time
17 02 08 T.C.
64.180.240.11
In 2013, a strong right-wing vote existed in the Penticton riding in terms of the BCCP (9.25%) and BC First (4.62%) for a total of 13.87%. With the BCCP implosion and BC First unlikely to run a candidate here again in 2017, that combined ~14% right-wing vote from 2013 will likely flow to the BC Liberals in 2017.
OTOH in 2009, the BC Greens ran a candidate in the Penticton riding and obtained 15.7%. In 2013, the BC Greens did not run a candidate here and the BC NDP received, prima facie, 9.2%/15.7% of that 2009 BC Green vote. The Weaver-led Greens will run candidates in 87/87 ridings including Penticton, which will likely result in much of that 9.2% popular vote share moving from the BC NDP back to the BC Greens.
Reading the entries here, Penticton should be an easy hold for the BC Liberals
17 01 27 Pundit79
142.30.110.217
Status quo for this pretty conservative riding.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
24.212.227.58
While this was a closer race last time, I would chalk it up to Dan Ashton not being the incumbent here, the seat has voted for the NDP in the past however under numerous other iterations, this might be close,



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