Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017


Prediction Changed
2017-02-25 13:24:11

Constituency Profile



Ashton, Dan

Sayeed, Tarik

Dan Ashton

Population (2014):56722
Deviation from average:6.80%
Geographical Area:1908 sq km
2013 Election Result
Dan Ashton
Richard James Cannings
Sean Upshaw
Doug Maxwell
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


17 02 24 Bernard von Schulmann
The last time the NDP won Penticton was in 1991 when there was a very tight three way split between the NDP, Liberals and Socred. There is no reason to think the Liberals will lose the seat this time
17 02 08 T.C.
In 2013, a strong right-wing vote existed in the Penticton riding in terms of the BCCP (9.25%) and BC First (4.62%) for a total of 13.87%. With the BCCP implosion and BC First unlikely to run a candidate here again in 2017, that combined ~14% right-wing vote from 2013 will likely flow to the BC Liberals in 2017.
OTOH in 2009, the BC Greens ran a candidate in the Penticton riding and obtained 15.7%. In 2013, the BC Greens did not run a candidate here and the BC NDP received, prima facie, 9.2%/15.7% of that 2009 BC Green vote. The Weaver-led Greens will run candidates in 87/87 ridings including Penticton, which will likely result in much of that 9.2% popular vote share moving from the BC NDP back to the BC Greens.
Reading the entries here, Penticton should be an easy hold for the BC Liberals
17 01 27 Pundit79
Status quo for this pretty conservative riding.
17 01 25 Jack Cox
While this was a closer race last time, I would chalk it up to Dan Ashton not being the incumbent here, the seat has voted for the NDP in the past however under numerous other iterations, this might be close,

Navigate to British Columbia 2017 Home | Regional Index | Submission

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2017 - Email Webmaster